Paris (AFP)

The OECD sharply revised upwards, to 5.6%, its forecast for global growth in 2021, counting on the combined effects of the US mega-stimulus plan and vaccination, in its interim outlook published on Tuesday.

"The global economic outlook has improved markedly in recent months due to the gradual roll-out of effective vaccines, the announcement of new support measures in some countries and signs that economies are coping better than expected with the restrictions. "Says the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in a statement.

On its own, the $ 1.9 trillion plan wanted by US President Joe Biden to revive the world's largest economy contributes 1 percentage point to this 1.4 point revision of global growth, explained to the AFP Laurence Boone, the chief economist of this organization which brings together 37 developed countries.

Thanks to this massive injection of liquidity, the United States, which counts one fifth of deaths from the pandemic, should see the rate of GDP growth double from what was expected in December, to 6.5%.

Without causing any major inflationary risk, according to Ms. Boone.

Indeed, "if we look at the state of the labor market and the capacities that are not used, there is a lot of room in the economy before demand picks up sharply," she said.

- Speed ​​up vaccination -

On the other hand, delays in vaccination could jeopardize the recovery, especially in Europe.

"We are not saying that Europe is not doing enough on the budgetary plan, we are saying that it should accelerate in terms of vaccination", underlined the former economic adviser to François Hollande.

"The faster countries vaccinate, the sooner they can reopen their economies. So our main message is to step up the pace of vaccination to reopen the economy and allow people to resume their normal activities, that is to say to work, to consume, to spend, "she insisted.

Unsurprisingly, projected growth is more modest for the euro zone.

Despite the "unprecedented" scale of the stimulus packages, continental GDP is expected to grow 3.9% this year, when the UK, where 22 million people received a first dose, is expected to post more robust growth of 5 , 1%.

More than 304.8 million doses of anti-Covid vaccines have been administered worldwide, according to AFP, a figure that hides deep disparities: Israel has vaccinated nearly 60% of its population, the United States nearly 20%, but Brazil, where the OECD expects growth of 3.7%, less than 5%.

For France, the OECD expects a rebound of 5.9%, virtually unchanged from its latest forecasts, 5.7% for Spain, 4.1% for Italy and 3% for Germany.

The engine of global growth, China, where exports jumped 60% year on year in January-February, is expected to post growth of 7.8%.

But it is in India that the expected rebound is the most spectacular: after plunging 7.4% in 2020, GDP is expected to grow by 12.6% this year.

© 2021 AFP