RMB central parity depreciated by 543 basis points. Industry: subsequent exchange rate fluctuations or expansion

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, March 9th. On the 9th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.5338, a depreciation of 543 basis points, which hit a new low since January 4.

As of press time, the onshore renminbi fell 117 basis points to the U.S. dollar to 6.5350; the offshore renminbi fell 14 basis points to the U.S. dollar to 6.5530.

Screenshot source: China Foreign Exchange Trading Center

　　In addition, the U.S. dollar index rose on the 8th. As of the end of New York trading, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.36% to 92.3144.

　　According to the Shanghai Securities News, in the eyes of industry insiders, the strength of the US dollar will continue in the short term, but a long-term trend has not yet formed.

In the future, the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate may expand, but the trend is still dominated by shocks.

　　Chen Yulu, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, deputy director of the Economic Committee, and deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, publicly stated that it is necessary to improve the money supply control mechanism, keep the money supply and the growth rate of social financing scale basically matching the nominal economic growth rate, and refrain from flooding. , To protect the people's "pocket".

　　Wang Jinbin, executive deputy secretary of the Party Committee of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China and a researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy, believes that the trend of the RMB exchange rate will show a stable but weak trend in the future.

Since May 2020, this round of appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has come to an end. Instead, it may enter a stable but weak phase, and the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable.

　　South China Futures also analyzed that in the near future, the speed of vaccination in the United States has accelerated, the number of new confirmed cases of the new crown has continued to decline, and the US economic recovery has gradually become clear. Coupled with the decline in the Sino-US interest rate differential, the short-term RMB is expected to continue to weaken and fluctuate.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)