OECD expects global growth of 5.6% in 2021, forecasts up sharply
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In its interim economic outlook published on Tuesday, March 9, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is counting on the combined effects of the US mega-stimulus plan and vaccination.
However, a return to the pre-pandemic situation will only be possible later in the year, or even in 2022.
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In 2021, the growth of the world economy could reach 5.6% against 4.2% initially forecast.
By itself,
the mega-plan of support wanted by President Joe Biden
to revive the world's largest economy contributes 1 percentage point to this revision.
For France, the OECD expects a rebound of 5.9%, virtually unchanged from its latest forecasts, 5.7% for Spain, 4.1% for Italy and 3% for the Germany.
Thanks to its exceptional rebound capacities, thanks to the maintenance of investment and the mobilization of entrepreneurs, the French economy will regain its colors in 2021. I am convinced of it.
# Les4V pic.twitter.com/Def6pzAAdJ
- Bruno Le Maire (@BrunoLeMaire) March 9, 2021
China is expected to post growth of 7.8%.
But it is in India that the rebound is most spectacular: after plunging 7.4% in 2020, GDP is expected to grow by 12.6% this year.
boost vaccination
On the other hand, delays in vaccination could jeopardize this recovery, especially in Europe, believes Laurence Boone, the chief economist of the OECD: "
We are not saying that Europe is not doing enough on the budgetary plan, but we're saying it should accelerate on the immunization front.
Because consumers still don't go out, don't travel, can't do things.
It is the health policy combined with the fiscal policy that really matters
”.
More than 304.8 million doses of anti-Covid vaccines have been administered worldwide, a figure that hides profound disparities: Israel has vaccinated nearly 60% of its population, the United States nearly 20%, France around 5% and Brazil 3%, according to OECD calculations.
The crisis could have long-term effects in many countries, and especially on young people, as was already the case after the financial crisis in 2008.
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