The cities of Marib, in central Yemen, and Idlib, in northwestern Syria, are facing a war that has been described as a "catastrophic". The two cities have the largest number of displaced people, and the battle in them has been described as decisive for the conflict in both countries, a conflict complicated by regional and international calculations.

Marib is witnessing a violent escalation in the three-week confrontations between the National Army and the Houthis, who intensify their attacks to penetrate the defenses of government forces and advance towards the city, which is the last stronghold of the government in the north of the country.

Yemeni army forces backed by tribesmen face alone the escalating Houthi attack on Marib (Reuters)

The biggest humanitarian crisis

The Houthi control of Marib threatens to cause the largest humanitarian crisis in Yemen, as more than half of its 2.5 million population will be forced to displace, as most of them are opposed to the Houthis, and were displaced from the governorates under their control in 2015.

According to a statement by the Executive Unit for Displaced Persons (government), Marib is the governorate that receives the most displaced persons, as two million 231 thousand people have been displaced to it, or 60% of the number of displaced people in the country.

And more than 14,000 people were displaced from 6 camps last month, following the Houthi advance in a limited way in the Sarwah district, west of Ma'rib, according to the director of the Camps Administration in Marib, Khaled Al-Shajni.

Al-Shajani told Al-Jazeera Net that the humanitarian organizations did not provide support to the displaced except to a limited extent, and that great obstacles hindered their reception, most notably the depletion of aid stocks, which forced the authorities to bring it from Aden, and Al-Shajni called for separating relief operations in Marib from the capital, Sana'a, which is under the control of the Houthis, as it receives 60 % Of the total number of displaced people.

About 2.1 million displaced people out of more than 4 million Syrians living in (French) Syrian opposition areas

Displaced kiss

For its part, the Syrian city of Idlib and its countryside represent the kiss of displaced Syrians coming from all parts of Syria, due to the forced displacement operations carried out by the regime during the past five years, as the city and its countryside embraces more than 4 million Syrians gathered by the most prominent stronghold of the Syrian opposition to the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

With the state of military apathy and the decline in the intensity of the battles in Syria, this city, which is called the green Idlib, which is rich in olive trees, has become a haven for civilians fleeing the hell of battles in several areas, most notably Ghouta, Damascus, the city of Aleppo, and finally Daraa, in the far south of Syria.

International understandings

Idlib, in northwestern Syria, is subject to the ceasefire agreement signed in the Russian capital Moscow on March 5, 2020 between Turkish Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian Vladimir Putin, which also stipulated the conduct of joint military patrols between the two countries on the international highway known as the M4 linking Between Aleppo and Latakia, via southern Idlib.

However, this agreement, which was signed a year ago, was subjected to hundreds of violations by the Syrian regime and its ally Russia, by bombing the areas of the Syrian opposition in Idlib governorate with warplanes, artillery and missiles, according to what local organizations and networks have documented.

Despite the state of security and military stability disturbed by the bombing of the regime and the Russian forces and car bombings, the civilians live in a state of anxiety and fear of the regime’s attempts to storm Idlib and its countryside, although the Turkish side, the most prominent ally of the Syrian opposition, is curbing these attempts, but The population is inhabited by fears of any international understandings that will turn their lives upside down.

Civilians in Idlib place hopes on opposition forces and Turkey as a military force to prevent the advancement of the regime (Al-Jazeera Net)

Adnan Al-Ahmad, a resident of the city of Idlib, said, "Most Syrians in Idlib and its countryside do not feel stability and security in their daily lives. The state of fear of the return of war and fighting does not depart from the mood of the population."

Al-Ahmad added in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net that civilians are now pinning their hopes on the military strength of the Syrian opposition factions, which are stationed on the battle lines in the southern and eastern countryside of Idlib, to prevent any progress by the regime, in addition to trusting Turkey as a major military force that prevents the region from falling into the hands of the Syrian regime.

The government army is fighting alone on the ground

Unlike the situation in Idlib, government forces backed by tribesmen in Marib are desperate to repel the fiercest Houthi attack since the outbreak of the war, while Saudi-Emirati coalition fighters provide support from the air.

Although government forces repeatedly refer in their statements to support for the coalition, a source in the Ministry of Defense tells Al-Jazeera Net that "the air support is no longer as effective as it was during the launch of Operation Decisive Storm in March 2015."

The source clarifies, preferring to remain anonymous, that "the priority is to intensify air strikes and support fighters on the ground with specific weapons, as this would turn the military equation on the Houthis, and move from defense to attack. The Houthis are mobilizing more forces, and their attack on Marib will not stop." They have nothing to lose. "

turning point

The battles in the oil-rich Marib are seen as important for any possible future negotiations, as they will secure the Houthis, if they control it, their access to oil and gas sources, and allow them to control what is historically known as North Yemen, observers say.

The head of the Bab al-Mandab Center for Regional and Contemporary Studies, Nabil al-Bakiri, says to Al-Jazeera Net, "For the government, Marib represents its last stronghold, and its steadfastness means restoring the Yemeni government to the initiative, in addition to the Yemenis restoring their confidence in their ability to make a transformation in the battle."

Al-Bukairi believes that the government forces and the tribes succeeded in absorbing the first attack of the Houthis, and their steadfastness over the course of a month represented an important beginning in the transformation of the battle from the framework of defense to attack.