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Greifswald (dpa / mv) - The bioinformatician Lars Kaderali expects significantly higher corona infections for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in March, also because of the loosening loosening.

"We have calculated updated simulations," said the head of bioinformatics at the University Medical Center Greifswald on request.

The effect of the easing decided on Wednesday at the federal-state conference cannot yet be precisely estimated.

The loosening would lead to more contacts and more infections.

“The question is not whether, but how quickly it happens”.

According to Kaderali, who advises the state government with his simulations, the numbers could be "back to the level of Christmas" at the end of the month.

Before Christmas, the seven-day incidence in the country had been just under 100 and had fallen below 80 over the holidays.

The Robert Koch Institute had indicated that fewer cases may have been reported because fewer people visited a doctor and had themselves tested at Christmas.

In addition to the relaxation, two other factors play an important role, according to Kaderali: "It is certain that the proportion of the mutated virus will continue to increase and it will no longer be possible to prevent it."

This will also lead to an overall increase in the number of infections.

In addition, mobility data showed that people were moving significantly more again.

Mobility is at the same level as in November after the partial shutdown.

Possible reasons are the lower incidence in January and the discussions about easing.

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Rapid tests could help to control the infection process.

However, Kaderali referred to a study in which he was involved.

According to this, only about half of those infected would actually be recognized as infected by a rapid test.

"The data means that in a quick test at the entrance to a restaurant, only one of two infected people is correctly identified."

Every infected person found reduces the number of subsequent infections, which is why rapid tests are important.

"But" free testing "is simply not possible with the rapid tests."

"Inoculating" out of the third wave is also not possible at the current pace.

There is still no strong effect to be seen.

He also did not accept the argument that the nursing homes were vaccinated.

Only a small proportion of people who are older than 60 years are actually vaccinated.

Depending on the definition, between 25 and 50 percent of the population belonged to the risk group.

Overall, however, only about four percent are vaccinated.

© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210306-99-711379 / 2

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Dr.

Lars Kaderali

Rapid test study