Washington (AFP)
The pandemic has crippled millions of jobs in the United States but it has had the unexpected effect of increasing the level of savings of Americans, especially that of wealthy households assigned to home and forced to give up travel and entertainment.
Households have drastically reduced their leisure spending.
At the same time, more modest households received government stimulus checks, additional unemployment benefits, and were able to suspend monthly loan repayment installments.
All this money has come to swell the economies of Americans, who are best known for drowning in debt and consuming lavishly and on credit.
A stock of excess savings of 1.8 trillion dollars has thus accumulated over the past eleven months, figures this week by firms Barclays Research and Oxford Economics.
"It is estimated that this stock could rise to 2.5 trillion by the summer," Gregory Daco, chief economist at Oxford Economics told AFP.
The savings rate of Americans, from 7 to 8% on average before the crisis, rose to a record level of 33% in April 2020, thanks to a gigantic support plan of 2.200 billion dollars for households and businesses , according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
It then fell back, before jumping again in January to 20.5%, thanks to stimulus checks of $ 600 included in the 900 billion plan adopted at the end of December by Congress.
And it could rise again in the spring as the Biden administration prepares to vote on a new stimulus package of around 1.9 trillion.
- Pay the bills -
If on the whole, Americans have more savings, the disparities are strong, the rich households having been able to save much more than those, more modest, affected by the losses of jobs and whose government aid was mainly used for pay the daily bills.
The wealthiest households have often been able to keep their teleworking jobs.
In other words, their level of income has remained constant when their spending has fallen sharply, resulting in excess savings.
"About four in ten Americans (42%) say they have spent less than usual since the start of the pandemic, and this is particularly the case for high-income people", highlights a survey of 10,334 adults representative of the American population and published Friday by the independent Pew Research Center.
Some 53% of high-income Americans spent less, compared to 43% of middle-income and 34% of low-income.
While Americans with comfortable incomes have not put their hands in their pockets for leisure and travel, low-income people say they spent less mainly because they worry about their personal finances.
The Pew Research Center study shows that savings were already very unequal before the crisis: "many Americans found it difficult to save money".
- Euphoric consumption?
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Overall, almost half of low-income adults (47%) were unable to save, compared to 25% of those with middle incomes and only 8% of high-income adults.
And savings are even more unequal according to the community, with about four in ten black adults (38%) say they are generally unable to save, compared to 31% of Hispanics, 27% of whites and 19% of adults. Asian, according to Pew Research Center.
The fundamental question remains whether this savings will boost consumption, which is the historical engine of American growth.
"Our outlook assumes a fairly rapid acceleration in household spending over the coming year and we make the explicit assumption (that they) will tap into accumulated savings," argue Barclays economists.
They add that "the recovery in spending could be particularly strong if households experience a + euphoria + effect (...) after a period of deprivation".
Not so sure, replies Gregory Daco.
If he also anticipates a rebound in consumption, he notes that part of the spending not carried out for a year will not necessarily be caught up.
"Are we going to take all the trips that we would have liked to take last year in addition to those planned once the pandemic is over? Are we going to travel in business or first class on the pretext that we have more money aside? ”he asks.
"Not necessarily".
© 2021 AFP