Legislative in Côte d'Ivoire: the analysis of Christophe Boisbouvier of the Africa service
A poster of the Electoral Commission for the legislative elections of March 6, 2021 in Côte d'Ivoire.
© RFI / Paulina Zidi
Text by: Christophe Boisbouvier Follow |
Paulina Zidi Follow |
Dominique fiant
5 mins
This Saturday, nearly 7.5 million Ivorian voters are called to the polls for a legislative election which promises to be disputed.
For the first time in ten years, the country's three major parties, the RHDP, the PDCI and the Gbagbo-oriented FPI, are taking part in a ballot.
The opportunity for Côte d'Ivoire to perhaps turn the page of 20 years of electoral violence.
Analysis of the stakes of this election with Christophe Boisbouvier of the Africa service of RFI.
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An exciting election?
These legislative elections are fascinating because they are, in the history of Côte d'Ivoire, the most open legislative elections for 25 years.
In 2000, Alassane Ouattara's RDR boycotted this election.
In 2011 and 2016, it was the FPI that boycotted.
This time, we will therefore see the three biggest parties in Côte d'Ivoire compete: the RHDP of Alassane Ouattara, the PDCI of Henri Konan Bédié and the FPI of Laurent Gbagbo.
It was a very bad start, however.
In October, the PDCI of Henri Konan Bédié, the FPI of Laurent Gbagbo and Pascal Affi N'Guessan called for a boycott of the presidential election and for civil disobedience.
Deadly clashes with the police, 87 dead.
Then there were gestures of appeasement.
In November, Henri Konan Bédié met Alassane Ouattara.
In December, Alassane Ouattara issued two passports to Laurent Gbagbo who lives on parole in Brussels and who hopes to return in the coming weeks.
And then, on Christmas Eve, a dramatic turn of events, Laurent Gbagbo's FPI announced that it would go to the legislative elections.
Why this coup de theater?
Since the post-election crisis of 2010-2011, since the capture of Laurent Gbagbo in April 2011, the supporters of the former president consider that Alassane Ouattara is a usurper and refuse any participation in public life.
There it is, the "Gbagbo or nothing" are back in the political game.
And today in Côte d'Ivoire, many hope that this country will finally turn the page of 20 years of political violence.
What are the chances of the opposition?
On the opposition side, we make a simple calculation: we see that there are three major parties in Côte d'Ivoire and that when two of these three parties combine against the third, they obtain the majority.
We are thinking in particular of the presidential election of 2010. This is why the PDCI of Henri Konan Bédié and the FPI of Laurent Gbagbo are alliance this time and present common candidates in almost all the constituencies of the country, with a few exceptions such as Gagnoa.
On the opposition side, we also do a second calculation.
It is estimated that the RHDP can suffer the erosion of power and that all opposition supporters, who are perhaps frustrated at having boycotted the presidential election of October 31, will let off steam in these legislative elections by going to the polls. 'voting booth.
Henri Konan Bédié is campaigning around the theme "no to absolute power" of the RHDP of Alassane Ouattara.
In fact, for former President Bédié, these legislative elections are also an opportunity to measure the real political weight of the PDCI almost three years after the break with the RHDP.
What are the chances of power?
On the power side, we are very confident.
Admittedly, Prime Minister Hamed Bakayoko is ill, he is hospitalized in France.
But this week, he tweeted a message of encouragement for his comrades who are candidates, like himself, for the RHDP.
President Alassane Ouattara knows that an election in Côte d'Ivoire is never won in advance, so he is going all out.
He asks almost all the ministers of his government to stand as a candidate for these legislative elections.
They are about thirty to wet the jersey.
They have two arguments.
First, they denounce the fact that many opponents called for civil disobedience six months ago.
They therefore claim that the opposition candidates have discredited themselves and are not worthy of the confidence of Ivorians.
And then, they defend the record of the RHDP over the past ten years.
They claim that the income of Ivorians has increased, that the health system has improved, that there are more and more classrooms, that the country will be 100% electrified in five years.
So you can see, it's an argument against argument, balance sheet against balance sheet, project against project.
A real political campaign like the Ivory Coast had not seen one for more than 10 years.
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Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast Politics
Alassane Ouattara
Laurent Gbagbo
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