Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan did not give much time to respond to their request to internationalize the Renaissance Dam negotiations after announcing the start of the second mobilization in July, to announce its rejection of internationalization and adhere to the agreement on the Declaration of Principles signed between the three countries.

After nearly ten years of "deadlock" negotiations in the dam file, the Egyptian and Sudanese alternatives have receded in overcoming the potential "negative" repercussions on their share and water installations, at a time when Addis Ababa has made a great stride in the construction process and months later, the process of the second filling of the dam is waiting.

Cairo has repeatedly affirmed its commitment to the negotiation track, but the past months witnessed an unprecedented diplomatic and military movement between Egypt and Sudan, tirelessly through military maneuvers and joint security agreements at a time fraught with crises in the region, especially on the Sudanese-Ethiopian borders, in contrast to a civil conflict that did not stop inside Ethiopia.

With the receding of the alternatives for Egypt and Sudan, Cairo renewed its rejection of the fait accompli policy and called for the resumption of negotiations with a specified time, in conjunction with Sudanese talk about the dangerous effects of the second filling of the dam on millions of Sudanese citizens.

During a joint statement issued in Cairo on Tuesday during the visit of Sudanese Foreign Minister Maryam Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi to Egypt, the two countries affirmed their adherence to Khartoum's proposal to form an international quadripartite committee that includes the United Nations, the European and African Union and the United States to mediate in the dam negotiations, after Ethiopia announced the start of the second mobilization of the Renaissance Dam.

They stressed that Ethiopia would implement the second phase of filling the dam unilaterally;

It will pose a direct threat to the water security of Egypt and Sudan, especially with regard to the operation of Sudanese dams, and threaten the lives of 20 million Sudanese citizens. They also confirmed that this measure would be a material breach of the Declaration of Principles agreement concluded in 2015.

However, the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Dina Mufti, said that his country rejects the internationalization of the Renaissance Dam file, and adheres to the Declaration of Principles agreement signed between the three countries, indicating that the Addis Ababa option is peace to resolve the border dispute with Sudan, ruling out a war with the two countries.

The effects of the second refill

The Egyptian academic Mohamed Hafez, a professor of dams and ports engineering, ruled out any impact of the second filling of the Renaissance Dam Lake on his country, explaining that Ethiopia will store about 15 billion cubic meters of the coming flood, and this reservation and storage will be disbursed from Lake Nasser (southern Egypt) to compensate for it.

In statements to Al-Jazeera Net, he added that every billion cubic meters that will be stored in front of the Renaissance Dam will be withdrawn from Lake Nasser, and therefore Egypt will not feel any negative impact of the second filling for the reason that it is withdrawn from the stockpile of Lake Nasser, which will lose this amount without compensation in the coming flood.

Whereas, according to Hafez, the very bad impact will be on Sudan, especially the inhabitants of the countryside and villages on the Blue Nile, starting from the Rusayris Dam (near the Renaissance Dam) to Khartoum, which is equivalent to about 20 million people.

Hafez clarified that the second filling of the dam will prevent Sudanese citizens from running the Blue Nile for nearly two full months, so that Ethiopia can store about 15 billion cubic meters during the coming months of July and August, explaining that in this case the citizens of Sudan need to draw water from the underground water to avoid Risks of holding water.

Between popular pressure and a military solution

There remain two options for Egypt to face the potential negative repercussions, according to the Egyptian academic, the first valid only during the period from the beginning of this March to the first of next May, and it is based on popular pressure on the International Quartet for the Egyptian community to come out in front of the embassies and headquarters of these countries and organizations in Egypt and expresses his anger and dissatisfaction with the world's handling of the worst problem facing his country.

He expected that the popular pressure paper would lead to strong messages to the rulers and officials of those countries and organizations, which would push them to put pressure on Ethiopia, stressing that without this pressure, these countries and organizations would not exert pressure on Ethiopia.

Hafez added that if America and the World Bank saw a noise in Egypt, they would put pressure on Addis Ababa, especially as they provide it with dam technology, financing and power lines.

And he called on his country's government to set a specific time, the last of which is the first of next May, which is the second option in his view, so that if diplomatic and political means do not succeed, the Egyptian army should go to Ethiopia to destroy any obstacle that prevents the natural flows from the Blue Nile from reaching Egypt, according to him.

Hafez said that the final solution may be military and requires that it come when the amount of water in front of the Renaissance Dam is as little as possible, about 3.5 billion meters, and that will be from May 1 to the first of next July, and during these two months, Ethiopia will allow the amount of water that currently exists. So you can drain the middle section of the dam and its lake and build on it, according to Hafez.

He added that this is the best opportunity for resorting to a military solution, noting that the Roseires Dam must be completely emptied before any military strike so that the water inside the Renaissance Dam is emptied without affecting the Roseires Dam.

Ethiopia announced that it will start the second filling of the Renaissance Dam within a few months (communication sites)

Quartet International

In turn, the Egyptian writer and researcher in international relations, Ahmed Maulana, expected the escalation of Egyptian pressure as the idea of ​​an international mediation, indicating that Cairo is betting that the Egyptian-Sudanese escalation will push regional international parties to intervene so that matters do not reach a conflict and war between the parties.

In statements to Al-Jazeera Net, he indicated that international powers are not in their interest for the East African region to witness a war between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, as its repercussions will be significant in matters of migration, security fragility, and the collapse of power and systems in the region, and thus it is pushing international pressure to intervene in an agreement that the three parties are satisfied with. .

As for the idea of ​​forming an international quadripartite to solve the crisis of the Ethiopian dam file, Mawlana stressed that it is possible if the major countries feel the danger of the scene and turn into a war, and in this they will put pressure on the three countries to reach a solution, warning that otherwise, the option of escalation on the Sudanese-Ethiopian borders is likely.

He explained that Egypt, in this case, is keen to improve its relationship with Sudan and support it in any possible conflict under the pretext of border problems.

As for the remaining options before Egypt, Maulana believes that Egypt has a series of other options, such as supporting the Tigrayan rebels in the face of the Ethiopian government and supporting the ethnic groups that have differences with the central government in Addis Ababa and Amhara that currently controls, as well as the option to support Sudan militarily in the event of a clash with Ethiopia during the period Coming.

A common threat

Explaining the sudden improvement between Cairo and Khartoum recently, the Egyptian researcher attributed it to the fact that it is naturally due to the existence of a common threat represented in the Ethiopian role and intransigence in the Renaissance Dam crisis, in addition to the change of the Sudanese administration and the army's assumption of power, so that the two persons, whether Sisi and Burhan, represent the armed forces of the two countries and are closer to each other in particular. In light of the common challenges they face.

Commenting on the Ethiopian declaration rejecting the internationalization of the dam file, Mawlana said that it is normal and expected in light of the Ethiopian intransigence, expecting that the coming period will witness more verbal escalation and the threat of military build-up on the borders and a call for external parties to intervene, considering that the option of launching a comprehensive war or Egypt undertaking a direct military operation in Ethiopia is unlikely because Ethiopia has made great strides in building the dam.