[Interview file] What was the intention of detaining Korean ships on the 56th day?

● Iran, South Korea's Kemiho being detained for 56 days…

Only 1 out of 20 returnees  

 today (28th) marks the 56th day after the Korean national ship, the Korean Kemi, was detained in Iran.

On January 4th, the Korean Kemi was captured by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard while passing through the waters near Oman in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is an independent army from the regular Iranian army, and it is an organization with so much power that the Iranian president should also notice.

(For reference, Iran has two troops in one country at the same time.) The reason for the capture of the Kemiho in South Korea by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was'environmental pollution'.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed that "the Korean Chemie has repeatedly violated marine environmental regulations, so it was captured at the request of the Iranian prosecution and the Maritime Port Authority." 

 However, DM Shipping, a Korean shipowner, immediately refuted, saying that although the ship was carrying chemicals such as methanol, no pollutants were leaked to the sea.

The South Korean government has also asked Iran to "prove evidence of environmental pollution," but Iran has not been able to provide evidence.

Even worse, the 1st Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and Africa Middle East Bureau chief Kyeong-seok Ko visited Tehran in mid-January, met with Iranian officials in person, but Iran still has no intention of releasing the ship.  

 What can be said of progress was Iran's announcement on the 4th that it would allow the release of 19 sailors except for the ship and one captain.

However, this was a half announcement given the minimum number of required personnel to keep the vessel in a safe condition.

(Dmshipping, a ship owner, is in a position that 13 required personnel are required.) Only one sailor has returned to Korea since Iran's announcement.

The remaining 19 people, including the captain and crew, have stayed on board the Korean Kemi, anchored in the southern Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, waiting for the ship to be completely released. 

 Then, what is the real truth

Iran's capture of the Korean Chemie?

Both the Iranian and South Korean governments formally deny the connection, but there is a reason to implicitly acknowledge each other.

It is the recovery of about 7 trillion dollars of frozen assets in Iran, which is tied to Korea.

One government official said, "If there is progress in Iran's frozen assets sector, I think Iran will make progress in the issue of lifting the detention of ships and crew we want." 

 In fact, this money is'Iranian money' that Korea should have returned to Iran.

This is because Iran made money from selling oil to Korea.

It is known that there are approximately 7.6 trillion won in the accounts of the Iranian Central Bank at three banks in Korea, including IBK Industrial Bank, Woori Bank, and Iranian bank, Bank Mellat. It's tied up.   

 The reason why Iranian money was frozen is simple.

Because of US reader sanctions.

Since the U.S. authorities have designated the Iranian Central Bank as an'International Terrorist Support Organization' (SDGT), if a financial transaction is made through an account with the Iranian Central Bank in Korea, it is considered to be'sending terrorist funds to a terrorist support organization'. This could lead to violations of US sanctions.

Violation of U.S. sanctions will block all transactions with U.S. companies.

Of course, humanitarian trade is an exception, and certain transactions may be subject to special approval from the US Treasury Department of Foreign Asset Control, OFAC, but only in very'special' cases as the name suggests. 

 Then, how is the Korean government trying to return the'Iranian money' in order to release the Korean Chemie as soon as possible?

The government is considering at least three options that will not violate US sanctions.

The most detailed discussion with Iran was through the Swiss humanitarian trade channel, SHTA.

This channel was created by the Trump administration in 2018 to enable humanitarian trade regardless of sanctions against Iran.

This is how local banks first send about $1 billion to Iranian accounts at Swiss banks, and Iran can use that money to buy medicines, medical supplies and groceries from Swiss-based companies.

In other words, Iran can use Iranian money to purchase the humanitarian goods they need, and when Swiss-based companies export'humanitarian goods' to Iran, the money is guaranteed by a Swiss bank. 

 However, regarding this plan, the Korean government is in a position that discussions with the United States have not yet been completed.

A foreign ministry official said, "The United States agreed that there is a remittance method through the existing Swiss trade channel, but the timing, amount, and procedure for using this channel must be consulted with the US Treasury Department OFAC for special approval." I explained.

US State Department spokesman Price also recently emphasized that "South Korea is playing an essential role in implementing sanctions not only against North Korea but also against Iran," he said. "South Korea has made it clear that it has not yet given $1 billion to Iran."

In short, even though the Biden administration has obtained the consent of the Biden administration on the channel through which South Korea can send Iranian frozen funds, it is entirely up to the US to decide when and how much this money can be released. 

 In addition to this Swiss channel, there is another way for the government to review.

It is to pay for Iran's UN contribution, which was pushed by 18 billion won in Iranian frozen funds, and to further increase the scale of humanitarian trade between Korean companies with Iran.

Although there is still talks about the procedure for sending the UN contribution, Iran appears to be negotiating more positively than before.

In the humanitarian trade sector, it is reported that the South Korean government has purchased tens of millions of dollars worth of humanitarian goods last month, and further discussions are underway on ways to expand this trade.

A foreign ministry official added, "In addition to these three options, we are in discussions with Iran and the United States." 

 did

So, how did Iran get to the point where it couldn't spend its own money at will?

Originally, Iran and the United States were as close as the largest allies in the region.

The Iranian Palevi dynasty maintained a pro-American tendency to depend on the United States during the US-Soviet Cold War until the Islamic Revolution collapsed in 1979.

It is well known that Iran's first experimental nuclear reactor was introduced in 1957 and that the United States helped it to join the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 1959.

The United States even intervened in 1953 to oust Iran's democratically elected Iranian Prime Minister Mosadek to expand its influence in Iran.

Prime Minister Mosadek was dissatisfied with King Palevi's protection of foreign oil interests, and was dissatisfied with his nationalist moves, declaring that he would nationalize all oil industries.

(American CIA and Britain had ousted the simulated deck naeseun nationalism as a coup jakjeonmyeong Ajax (Operation Ajax), this fact was also buying a big 0 minutes of public gotta Iranian people belatedly through declassified documents of the CIA.)    

 This context, In 1979, two decisive events occurred in which relations between Iran and the United States were distorted.

At the time, the Islamic Revolution broke out in Iran to overthrow the Palevi dynasty, which was considered a "corrupt and incompetent dictatorship."

Ji-hyang Jang, head of the Middle East Center at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said, "At the time, the hatred of Iranians toward the United States was great." "Religious leader Khomeini, nationalists, socialists, and liberals joined forces to drive out the pro-American Palevi dynasty, stained with corruption. "I said.

Khomeini, a spiritual proponent of the Iranian people, advocated the establishment of an Islamic state that united the kingship and the priesthood as one, saying that King Palevi was obedient to the Christian-centered western world. As a result, he succeeded in establishing an anti-American Islamic regime. 

 In November of that year, an incident occurred that was unacceptable for the United States.

The Islamic Revolutionary followers invaded the US Embassy in Tehran and held 50 Americans hostage for more than a year.

This was an unforgettable and shocking event for Americans, as it was later used as the subject of a movie called Argo.

Ji-hyang Jang, head of the Middle East Center at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said, "If the US occasionally asks you to pick the most humiliating incidents in public opinion polls, the case of the Iranian embassy, ​​not the Vietnam War, took first place." "It was shameful that I couldn't rescue it for 444 days, and that it was only possible later with the help of the Canadian government."

In fact, this incident led the United States to break up with Iran in 1980, and from then on, it began to severely sanction Iran.

 President Clinton of the U.S. adopted an executive order on embargo on Iran's embargo on U.S. companies in 1995, and in 1996 adopted an economic sanctions law aimed at sanctioning third-country investment companies against Iran's oil and gas development projects. I started to jail.

Since then, President Bush designated Iran as the'axis of evil' along with North Korea and Iraq in his 2002 Yeondu textbook.

At the end of 2002, Iran's secret nuclear program was uncovered by Iranian anti-government groups, which was a decisive moment in further strengthening US sanctions against Iran.

The U.S. has lasted for over 10 years not only the existing independent sanctions, but also the high-strength sanctions that endangered Iran's economy by passing several UN resolutions.

As a result, the Iranian economy gradually began to collapse, and the Iranian people, who could not stand it, make a regime change in the 2013 Iranian presidential election, electing a mid-century presidential candidate who can save the economy by talking with the United States.

This is the current President of Iran, Hassan Rohani.

 In 2013, the Obama administration saw the launch of the Hassan Rohany regime as an opportunity to curb Iran's nuclear weapons development.

So, the United States began to negotiate nuclear negotiations with the Iranian regime with Britain, France, Russia, China (permanent member of the UN Security Council P5) and Germany.

The result led to the'Iran Nuclear Agreement' in July 2015.

(The official name is the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan, but it is commonly referred to as the'Iran Nuclear Agreement'.) This agreement means that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons as required by the six countries for the next 15 years, i.e. 2030. The main point is that if activities are restricted and the IAEA's nuclear inspections are faithfully received, sanctions by the United States, the European Union and the United Nations will be eased.

If Iran follows this agreement well, it means that six countries, including the United States, will make Iran live well. 

 This agreement was the result of negotiations that the Obama administration also regarded as a major diplomatic achievement at the time, but the agreement did not last long.

It was largely the impact that hard-liners complained about the agreement that Iran could maintain its nuclear weapons only for peaceful use, rather than completely eradicating its nuclear weapons.

They opposed the agreement even after the agreement was ratified, saying they are concerned that Iran could still maintain a nuclear program.

In this atmosphere, President Trump was elected, and President Trump declared ``withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement'' in May 2018 in the direction he professed as a candidate.

President Trump argued that the agreement, made by the former Obama administration, will not go into effect in 2030 to permanently stop Iran's nuclear development, and that Iran's dismantlement of ballistic missiles is not enough, as grounds for withdrawal. 

 Since then, the situation has become worse.

The Trump administration has restored sanctions against Iran.

In the aftermath, Iran's crude oil exports were frozen in Korea and Japan.

Iran immediately rebelled.

As the series of events resulted from the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, they were asked to withdraw'illegal' sanctions against them.

In the process, the conflict between the United States and Iran intensified.

The Trump administration bombarded former commander of the Kuds Army, an elite Iranian revolutionary guard, Gasem Soleimani, a symbol of hardlining in Iran.

President Trump insisted, "The reason we did that was because they were trying to blow up our embassy."

Since then, Iran also bombed US military bases in Iraq five days after Soleimani's death.

From the standpoint of Iran's Hassan Rohany regime, the possibility of re-establishment in the upcoming June presidential election is in a situation where the Iranian nuclear agreement that they promoted was stranded, and the US sanctions, economic deterioration, Corona 19 damage, and the US attack on Iran were pushed at the beginning of an amnesty. It is very thin. 

 administration took office in January, pledged to “restore the Iranian nuclear agreement” under such circumstances.

In the Biden administration, key parties who sketched the Iranian nuclear agreement are in key positions.

President Biden has already declared that he will lift sanctions against Iran if Iran adheres to the existing agreement.

Of course, until recently, both the United States and Iran face each other, demanding “priority compliance with the nuclear agreement” and “removal of sanctions”, but the atmosphere has changed little by little since last week.

In an interview with the National Institute of Foreign Affairs In, Nam-sik In said in an interview with SBS 8 News, "It is difficult to predict the results yet," but "The US side presented a pro-Iranian person, Robert Marley, negotiator, and Iran requested mediation with the European side. It seems that both Iran and Iran are willing to return to the nuclear agreement."

Some observers have also observed whether the U.S. carried out a pro-Iran Syrian militia smaller than originally planned by the Ministry of Defense or whether it was a ``water level control'' with the intention of returning to the Iranian nuclear agreement. 

 The key is expected to be the Iranian presidential election in June.

Even if the Biden administration wants to return to the Iranian nuclear agreement, it cannot rule out the possibility that Iran will refuse to return if the new president of Iran is a hardline.

"If the Biden administration wants to restore the Iranian nuclear agreement, it has to make a big step forward," said Jang Ji-hyang, director of the Middle East Center at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. "It will be in early May when the Iranian Constitutional Subcommittee is filtering out candidates for the presidential election." I looked out.

"As a moderate reformist presidential candidate, the talk of the current Iranian foreign minister is being discussed a lot." "So if Zarif becomes a candidate for the presidential election, the possibility of moderates coming to power should be proactively publicized that he is willing to ease sanctions from then on."  

 Unaware of the Iranian internal situation, the Biden administration is expected to continue to ponder what is favorable for the restoration of the Iranian nuclear agreement and the timing of implementing it until the Iranian presidential election is imminent.

And, if necessary, he could soon hand over a'surprise gift' to Iran for the re-emergence of the center wave.

Among these futures, releasing Iranian assets tied to Korea could be a good enough option.

One government official said, "If the United States makes a decision, it may be tomorrow or months later that the frozen assets of Iran will be delivered to Iran. It is still difficult to predict."

In the end, depending on when the United States approves the Iranian frozen assets, which was the background of the ship's arrest, it seems that it will be possible to predict whether the Korean Chemi, who were detained in Iran for 56 days, and 19 captains and crew members will be released as soon as possible.