Saarbrücken (dpa) - The third wave of the corona pandemic will be as strong as the second, according to calculations by Saarbrücken pharmacy professor Thorsten Lehr.
"I am already assuming that we will get the same conditions as we did before Christmas," said the dpa expert for corona forecasts in Saarbrücken.
He reckoned that seven-day incidences of around 200 could be reached again in the first half of April.
Two developments are responsible for the renewed increase in the corona numbers.
On the one hand, the British mutant, who is probably 35 percent more contagious, is on the rise in Germany.
"Here, too, it will gain the upper hand and continue to rise to the 90-plus range," said Lehr after analyzing the latest figures from the "Covid simulator" at Saarland University.
On the other hand, he has seen more contacts again since mid-February, which would have led to higher numbers.
“I'm afraid that has a bit to do with lockdown fatigue.
And maybe with a restart of normal life in certain areas. "
Now openings are imminent - like those of the hairdressers and other businesses from March 1st or further steps from March 8th.
"Even if the easing is moderate, it will have an impact."
Lehr assumes that there will be around 20 percent more contacts after March 7th.
"And then we will see that the combination of easing with the mutant, which is then fully there, leads to a relatively strong increase."
Without any easing step, the 100 incidence would be reached in early April.
The incidence of 35 that was targeted a few weeks ago has now moved a long way off.
The effect of the vaccinations can hardly be seen at the moment.
This is due to the fact that over 95 percent have not yet been vaccinated.
Effects can only be seen when 30 percent of the population has been vaccinated.
"In an optimistic scenario, I would expect that we might have done that in June."
The increase in numbers could possibly be slowed down with more tests.
"About targeted rapid tests that are used extensively to pull infectious people out of circulation," said Lehr.
But he has doubts «that the implementation will happen in time.
So in time for a relaxation. "
And opening steps would most likely come: "Because society is pushing."
The professor of clinical pharmacy at Saarland University and his research team have developed a “Covid simulator” that calculates the infection rate in Germany and provides forecasts: for all of Germany, the individual federal states down to the district level.
It can also be used online.
© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210227-99-614611 / 3