Chinanews, February 27th (Liu Cong) Two years have passed since the second "Golden Conference" ended in vain.

After that meeting, the momentum of the denuclearization negotiations between North Korea and the United States fell cold, and there was no substantive progress.

Time has passed and the US president has changed from Trump to Biden. What strategy will the Biden administration implement against North Korea?

Can North Korea-US relations find a breakthrough?

Regarding the situation on the Korean Peninsula, is the Biden administration a crisis or an opportunity?

Data map: On February 27, 2019 local time, the second North Korea-US summit was held at the Sofitel Legend Metropole Hotel in Hanoi, Vietnam.

The picture shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shaking hands with then-U.S. President Trump at the meeting place.

The second anniversary of the second "Gold Conference"

How big is the "catastrophic impact"?

　　From February 27th to 28th, 2019, the second "Golden Special Meeting" was held in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Although the US has called it a "very good and constructive meeting," the Vietnam summit has made the momentum of the easing of the DPRK-US dialogue take a turn for the worse.

Due to differences in the stances of the two sides on the pace and method of nuclear abandonment, the meeting that opened with optimism and high-profile ended in no agreement.

　　"This meeting has had a disastrous impact on the little bit of mutual trust between North Korea and the United States that has finally accumulated. This is more fruitless than the meeting itself, and the impact may be greater." In an interview with Chinanews.com, China International Studies The researcher Yang Xiyu commented.

　　At the second "Golden Conference", the DPRK and the United States insisted on their positions on the lifting of sanctions and nuclear abandonment, and refused to compromise.

North Korea hopes that the U.S. will lift the sanctions first, and the U.S. hopes that the DPRK will first abandon its nuclear weapons before discussing the issue of sanctions.

　　Yang Xiyu pointed out that “this has increased the strategic suspicion between the two sides about each other and the sense of mistrust has rapidly increased”, which has caused the two parties to negotiate a deadlock ever since.

　　Even in June of the same year, Trump met again with Kim Jong Un, the top leader of North Korea, in Panmunjom and sent a positive signal to restart negotiations, but after that, the talks did not make any real progress.

Data map: US President Biden.

"Top-down" and "Bottom-up"

The two US administrations have the same goals but different methods?

　　Now, after the new US President Bibi takes office, all parties are wondering what strategy he will adopt against North Korea.

However, the Biden administration revealed that it will not "prematurely" contact North Korea or act alone.

　　Yang Xiyu pointed out that "the Biden administration faces many internal and external challenges, and the urgency of the North Korean nuclear issue is far less urgent than other issues", so it is difficult to deal with it first.

　　However, he pointed out that "Biden's North Korea policy is consistent with Trump's goal, that is, North Korea must completely abandon its nuclear weapons, but the approach is completely different."

　　Yang Xiyu further analyzed that Trump was "top-down" and promoted through diplomatic promotion by heads of state like the "Golden Special Conference"; but Biden is now "bottom-up", starting from working-level negotiations and accumulating to a certain extent To the extent, "only when results are achieved or guaranteed can be achieved, can we personally conduct heads of state diplomacy."

　　In addition, from a technical point of view, the United States is reassessing and reviewing its policy toward North Korea.

Before the end of this process, the Biden administration will not rush to launch policies and measures toward North Korea.

　　Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at the China Foreign Affairs University, talked to Chinanews about another feature of the Biden administration’s North Korea policy.

He said that Biden will also seek to put pressure on North Korea by strengthening close consultations with South Korea and Japan, that is, after consolidating its alliance with Japan and South Korea, it will exert pressure on North Korea.

Data map: On September 18, 2018, South Korean President Moon Jae-in arrived in Pyongyang, North Korea.

The picture shows Moon Jae-in and North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong-un sharing a car driving through the streets of Pyongyang.

Photo courtesy of the Pyongyang Joint Interview Mission

Actively promote North Korea-US dialogue

South Korea is still a "bridge builder"

　　In fact, after Biden took office, South Korea has publicly stated on many occasions that it hopes that the DPRK and the United States can start negotiations as soon as possible.

Recently, Xu Xun, head of the National Security Office of the Blue House of South Korea, said when attending the plenary meeting of the Congressional Operating Committee that South Korea will maintain close communication and cooperation with the US Biden administration and formulate a framework strategy for North Korea as soon as possible.

　　Yang Xiyu pointed out, “South Korea is deeply affected by the confrontation between North Korea and the United States, because after the confrontation between North Korea and the United States, the dialogue between the DPRK and the United States has also reached a deadlock. In other words, the Hanoi summit between the DPRK and the United States ended in vain. So it stopped."

　　South Korea is very clear that there would be no dialogue between North Korea and South Korea without dialogue between the North and the United States.

Therefore, South Korea is actively pushing the United States to initiate dialogue with North Korea so that South Korea can put its dialogue on the agenda.

　　However, "At present, it seems that on the one hand, South Korea, as an alliance, must follow the pace of the United States in the mainstream; on the other hand, South Korea’s influence on North Korea is also very limited, which makes South Korea have such a say in the confrontation between North Korea and the United States And influence are very limited."

　　Li Haidong believes that in the short term, it will be difficult for the leaders of North Korea and the United States to make communication between the leaders of the DPRK and the United States a reality, but the leaders of both sides are likely to "speak" to South Korea, making South Korea a channel and bridge for information communication between North Korea and the United States.

Figure 4 Data map: The picture shows the Freedom House on the Korean side, and you can see the Panmun Pavilion on the opposite side.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Wu Xu

"Dead end" or "crossroads"

North Korea-U.S. deadlock may contain opportunities

　　At this stage, although the United States and North Korea have not released a positive signal that they will conduct relevant negotiations in the near future, this does not mean that North Korea-US relations will enter a "dead end."

　　Yang Xiyu pointed out, "North Korea adopts a wait-and-see attitude of'wait and see'. Before the United States takes the initiative to play, North Korea will be in a period of observation and waiting."

　　He analyzed that North Korea will adopt a "good versus good, evil versus evil" approach.

That is, "If the United States introduces a tough policy, then North Korea will be hard-line versus hard-line; if the United States really wants to negotiate a deal, North Korea will not rule out the possibility of bargaining for a deal after returning to negotiations with the United States."

　　Therefore, "the current impasse between North Korea and the United States contains an opportunity. At a crossroads, it depends on what cards the United States plays." (End)