Iran in the Middle East has jerky relations with Western countries over nuclear development.
What's wrong?
The reporter in charge summarized the keys to read in daily news.
Q What is Iran's nuclear development problem in the first place?
A
This is a problem that countries, mainly in Europe and the United States, are concerned about whether Iran's nuclear development will lead to the production of nuclear weapons.
It was discovered in 2002 that Iran was secretly building a nuclear facility.
IAEA = It became clear that uranium enrichment activities were repeated without reporting to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Iran claims that its purpose is peaceful use.
However, the international community suspected the development of nuclear weapons, and since 2006, the UN Security Council has repeatedly adopted sanctions resolutions on Iran.
In addition, the situation has become tense as Israel, which is in conflict with Iran, has shown its willingness to preemptively attack nuclear facilities.
It was also said to be the "largest fire in the Middle East."
After that, when President Hassan Rouhani, who has a dialogue with the international community, takes office, diplomatic negotiations will become active.
In 2015, Iran signed a "nuclear agreement" to limit nuclear development with six countries, including Europe and the United States.
Q What kind of agreement is it?
A For
Iran, "candy" and "whip" are interwoven.
To prevent Iran's nuclear development from leading to the production of nuclear weapons, it set limits on uranium enrichment and storage, and in return, the economic sanctions imposed on Iran were lifted.
However, in 2018, the former Trump administration unilaterally withdrew as "the agreement was insufficient" and resumed economic sanctions.
Iran has rebelled against this and has launched countermeasures one after another.
The production of uranium with a concentration of 20%, which deviates significantly from the nuclear agreement, has started, and this time, the IAEA has decided to limit inspections.
Q How has the IAEA monitored Iran's nuclear program?
The
AIAEA is said to be the "nuclear keeper" who monitors the world's nuclear development to see if nuclear power is used for military purposes such as the development of nuclear weapons.
The IAEA collects samples of nuclear material and installs surveillance cameras at the facility.
Based on the "nuclear agreement," Iran has tentatively applied an "additional protocol" that empowers significant inspections.
This allows the IAEA to conduct unannounced inspections of facilities not declared by Iran.
The "Additional Protocol" is an important pillar in examining Iran's nuclear program, but Iran has suspended this cooperation since February 23.
Q What happens if inspections are restricted?
A It
will be difficult to grasp the actual situation of Iran's nuclear development.
"We took it very seriously. It would be a huge loss to the international community if unannounced inspections under the'Additional Protocol'were not possible," Glossi, the head of the IAEA, told NHK in an interview.
As an IAEA inspector, Panteris Ikonomou, who has conducted inspection activities around the world, said, "The scope of the IAEA's role will be dramatically limited and complete inspections will not be possible. The inspectors are declared by Iran. You will lose the authority to find undeveloped nuclear development activities and nuclear material, and you will not be able to draw conclusions. "
Q Is Iran trying to develop a nuclear weapon?
A
Iran consistently denies that it intends to manufacture nuclear weapons.
The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, also bans the development of nuclear weapons, saying it goes against the teachings of religion.
However, countries in opposition to Iran are wary of continuing to question Iran, which continues to enrich uranium, and maintain its "capacity" to produce nuclear weapons.
The IAEA also has a bitter experience in North Korea's nuclear program.
In the midst of suspicion of developing nuclear weapons, North Korea expelled inspectors and declared possession of nuclear weapons after being unable to inspect.
Since 2009, the IAEA has been unable to conduct inspections in North Korea again, and it is difficult to verify it by only analyzing information such as satellite photographs.
Former Inspector Ikonomo said, "If the IAEA cannot prove that nuclear development is for peaceful purposes, conflicting countries will not be relieved. The suspension of the'Additional Protocol'is dangerous, critical and world security. Will be compromised. "
It is feared that the failure to inspect Iran could raise suspicions in opposing Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, resulting in military tensions.
Q Why did Iran take action?
A In
order to lift the economic sanctions imposed by the United States, we are urging the United States to respond with that means.
The former Trump administration sought to isolate Iran, saying it would "apply maximum pressure."
Last year, the commander of an elite unit, a national hero of Iran, was killed by the United States.
Also in November, a prominent nuclear scientist was attacked and killed by someone, claiming that Iran was the crime of Israel, which has an alliance with the United States.
The Biden administration, which was born under these circumstances, is different from the previous administration and is considering the possibility of returning to the nuclear agreement.
Iran's hard-line measures can be said to be a message to the United States that "immediately lift sanctions!"
Q Are US economic sanctions in effect?
A
The number "1/6" indicates.
This is the extent of the decline in the real value of the local currency compared to when the Trump administration was inaugurated four years ago.
As a result, prices continue to rise, especially for imported products.
In Iran, we often hear stories such as "rents have doubled or tripled" and "we decided to move to the suburbs."
When the United States imposes sanctions on Iran, European countries that want to keep the nuclear agreement in the form of pressing a stepping stone to decide whether to do business with the United States or Iran against companies around the world with which they have transactions, also do business with Iran. I came to refrain from.
Q Will the wind change with the birth of the Biden administration?
A It
seems that the negotiations will change a little, but the negotiations will not be straightforward.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said he is ready to talk with Iran over a return to a nuclear deal.
In addition, a spokesman for the State Department has indicated that the United States will participate if the EU-European Union holds a meeting inviting the countries involved in the nuclear agreement, and diplomatic movements are certainly active.
However, Iran is in a position that the United States, which unilaterally went out of the agreement, should first lift the sanctions and return to the nuclear agreement before having discussions.
The United States, on the other hand, is in a position to return to the agreement and lift sanctions if Iran withdraws its hard-line measures and fully adheres to the agreement.
Both sides are urging each other to change their behavior, and the gap is not filled.
In addition, Iran is wary of a move to revise the content of the nuclear deal.
The Biden administration has argued that it would like to use the current nuclear agreement as a foothold to strengthen its content, including further restrictions on Iran.
Ultimately, it also suggests that the development of Iran's ballistic missiles should be restricted.
In response, Iran said, "The agreement has been concluded after many years of negotiations. There can be no new negotiations."
Q What are your future points of interest?
A
One point is whether or not we will make any compromises by around June of this year.
The IAEA Executive Secretary-General Grossi has established cooperation with Iran for up to three months to carry out certain verification activities at nuclear facilities by the end of May.
Unannounced inspections based on the additional protocol are no longer possible, but it has given us time to proceed with diplomacy.
Also, in Iran, the presidential election is coming up on June 18.
For the current administration, the ability to draw any concessions from the United States over sanctions is crucial to the election.
If the election is held without any results, it is expected to be a headwind for moderates led by the current President Hassan Rouhani.
Many Iranians have already felt that "if this situation continues, a hardline president against the United States will be born."
Depending on the outcome of the election, the compromise between the United States and Iran could be even more difficult.
The stability of this region is also important for Japan, which depends on the Middle East for energy such as crude oil.
I think it is necessary to firmly see whether the confrontation between the United States and Iran is going to ease.
(Tehran Bureau, Takeshi Togawa, Director, Vienna Bureau, Hiroto Sadazu, Director)