China News Service, Beijing, February 24 (Li Jingze) The "Report on the International Situation of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (2021)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released on the 24th predicts that after experiencing the economic downturn impacted by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the world in 2021 The economy will restart growth on the basis of the previously low base.
The report was edited by Xie Fuzhan, Dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and participated in the writing of the International Studies Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The book comprehensively analyzes the economic, political, social, security situation and major hot issues in major countries such as Russia, the United States, Japan and other major countries and major regions in the world in 2020. On this basis, it predicts the major development trends of the global situation and world pattern in 2021. Sentenced.
According to the report, in 2021, the world economy will restart growth on the basis of the previously low base.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the real GDP growth rate of the world economy will reach 5.5% in 2021, a 9% increase from the previous year's growth.
According to the report, from the perspective of major economies, the IMF expects that all G20 member states will achieve positive growth in 2021.
Among them, the actual GDP growth rate is expected to reach or exceed 5% in 9 countries including China and India.
The actual GDP growth rate is expected to be 3% to 5% in 7 countries including the United States and Germany.
It is estimated that less than 3% are South Korea, Brazil, Russia and Japan.
India’s relatively high growth rate was achieved based on a low level of 10.3% economic contraction last year.
Although major economies will begin to recover growth in 2021, countries have different resilience and resilience to the impact of the epidemic. The economic performance of China and Indonesia is relatively better.
Xie Fuzhan pointed out at the press conference that in 2021 the world economy will start restorative growth, but risks cannot be ignored.
He explained that, on the one hand, the foundation of the world economic recovery is relatively weak, facing the potential threat of insufficient continuity and poor coordination of macroeconomic policies of various countries.
On the other hand, the uncertainty of the epidemic situation also poses challenges to economic recovery.
With the continuous advancement of vaccine research and development, the premise of effective control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is emerging.
However, uncertainties in virus mutation and vaccine distribution will also cast a shadow over the recovery of the world economy.
The report also predicts that global risks in 2021 will be mainly manifested in the significant turmoil in the global financial market, the escalation of national terrorism will intensify tensions in the Middle East, severe impacts on the Internet and data security, disruption and reorganization of the global industrial chain and supply chain, and changes in the supply and demand of commodities will trigger energy, The minerals, food crisis, etc.
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