The dilemma of withdrawing NATO troops from Afghanistan
American soldier guarding an Afghan army base in Logar province.
REUTERS - Omar Sobhani
Text by: Heike Schmidt Follow
5 mins
NATO has been present in Afghanistan for almost twenty years.
From 130,000 troops, the troops have grown to just 9,600 today, including 2,500 Americans.
The February 2020 Doha accords signed by the Trump administration with the Taliban provide for the complete withdrawal of the international coalition by May 1.
But during the NATO meeting in Brussels on February 17th and 18th, the member countries finally decided… not to decide anything.
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Insights with the former diplomat Georges Lefeuvre, anthropologist, specialist in Afghanistan and researcher at IRIS.
RFI
: When will the
9,600 soldiers know if they are leaving or if they stay beyond May 1?
Georges Lefeuvre
:
It is an extremely complex situation that Donald Trump left us when he left.
At the end of his mandate, the American troops were reduced to 2,500. While the general staff kept telling Donald Trump that with less than 4,500 men, it will be impossible to provide security. or to carry out actions against terrorist operations.
Obviously, Joe Biden as well as his Secretary of State Antony Blinken, as soon as they took power, said “Wait, the Doha agreements, we will try to review them and reassess them”.
Yes, but the Taliban told them that they did not sign with Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden, but with the United States.
►Also read: NATO defers its decision on its presence in Afghanistan but strengthens its mission in Iraq
It is in fact written that all foreign troops will leave on May 1.
This is where it is terrible, because the Americans have made a commitment on behalf of the 39 other countries in the international coalition.
The Taliban responded "if you do not respect the terms of the agreement, we will resume the war".
However, it should be noted that the Taliban had stopped fighting against foreign armies, while they were packing their bags.
RFI
: But did the Taliban respect their commitments made in Doha, the violence never really stopped?
GL
:
So far, the Taliban have stuck to the
February 29, 2020
letter
of agreement
.
And if they stick to the letter of the text, they will indeed be quite capable, from May 1, of resuming the fighting.
During the winter and the very severe cold, movements are complicated, but everyone knows very well that every spring we observe what is called the “spring offensive” of the Taliban.
If the foreign troops remain, we must therefore expect more attacks, as the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg fears?
GL:
It's true that Jens Stoltenberg is very bored, because in February 2020, when the agreements were signed, he said 'we all arrived together, we will all leave together'.
Then today, seeing the situation on the ground, he said 'if we stay after May 1 we run the risk of attacks against our troops, but conversely, obviously, if we leave, we risk to lose all progress and to see Afghanistan become a refuge for international terrorist groups.
This is the real dilemma.
RFI: “
No ally wants to stay longer than necessary,
” said Jens Stoltenberg.
But do you think President Joe Biden is as eager as Donald Trump to leave the Afghan bee-eater
?
GL:
Joe Biden is trapped.
The American president has no desire at all to abandon Afghanistan to complete chaos.
At the same time, he knows that if he stays, he will unleash the wrath of the Taliban, who have considerable military means.
Let's face it, the Taliban are in danger of making a bite of the Afghan National Army.
RFI: “
Stay or go
”, stay or go, if you had to decide this question, what advice would you give to NATO and to the new US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin?
GL:
There is only one thing that can be done, and I think that will be what NATO member countries will do.
They haven't made a firm decision for May 1.
But they can make this argument that the peace process is behind schedule.
So we could reasonably make the Taliban understand, who do not necessarily want to lose everything they have already obtained, that the withdrawal of troops will have to be delayed, for example by six months.
This will allow further progress in the peace talks, before the rest of the NATO troops can leave under better conditions.
NATO has chosen the “wait and see” strategy because there is in reality no other option than to wait before deciding to withdraw.
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