The Biden administration’s strategy in Yemen .. What does the back-channel policy hide for the parties to the conflict?

Since Joe Biden entered the US White House on January 20, he has adopted a new policy towards the ongoing war in Yemen since late 2014.

This was embodied in the removal of his administration of the Houthi group from the list of terrorism, then the appointment of a special envoy for Yemen, leading to the cessation of the military support provided to Saudi Arabia in its war in Yemen.

Biden's policy represents a retreat from the approach of his predecessor Donald Trump (2017-2021), which may affect the field situation, especially with the Iranian-backed Houthis launch intense attacks on Marib (north) in an attempt to control the oil and gas-rich city, which is the last stronghold. For government forces backed by an Arab military alliance led by the Saudi neighbor since 2015.

The air strikes launched by the Saudi-Emirati coalition represented a deterrent factor against the Houthis, and according to a Houthi military source who spoke to Anatolia earlier, most of the Houthi deaths, including prominent leaders, were killed in coalition raids.

However, these air strikes may lose their effectiveness in the absence of American logistical support.

After a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Friday, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a press conference: As you know, President Biden was clear that we would not support Saudi Arabia’s offensive operations in Yemen, and they heard that message clearly.

Direct policy

The US policy toward Yemen has always passed through Saudi Arabia, but Biden appointed Timothy Lenderking as a special envoy to Yemen, which is the first time that US policy has been direct towards this Arab country.

Lenderking began his duties by communicating with the Houthi group, through back channels, and said in a press conference on Wednesday that Washington has methods to deliver messages to the Houthis "and we are using these channels aggressively."

"I believe that our hope is that the joint effort, including certain partners at certain times and the strong American position, will enable us to better pressure to achieve a negotiated settlement, and I think we all agree that this is the only way forward," the new envoy added.

Lenderking did not mention the nature of the back-end communication channels, and it appears that Washington has overtaken the government of Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, the Yemeni president, who has been in Riyadh since 2015.

Despite Lenderking's meeting with Hadi, he rarely referred to the Yemeni government, and at the same time it seems that the Houthis are seeking to impose a different reality on the ground.

A Yemeni government source, who asked not to be named, said that the new US policy encouraged the Houthi group to escalate the military, whether towards Marib or the intensification of operations with drones or missiles against Saudi airports.

Peace agreement

On Thursday, the foreign ministers of France, Britain, Germany and the United States expressed their common determination to reduce tension in the Gulf region, stressing the need to quickly stop the Yemen war.

Gulf states allied with Washington, led by Saudi Arabia, accuse Iran of having an expansionist agenda in the region and interfering in the internal affairs of Arab countries, including Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq, which Tehran denies and says it is committed to a good neighborly policy.

It seems that the US position on Yemen, according to observers, has overshadowed the positions of the three active countries in this country (France, Germany and Britain), which raises many doubts about the future of Yemen, and the possibility of recognizing the Houthi group as a fait accompli in preparation for reaching peace.

On the other hand, Nadwa Al-Dossary, a Yemeni researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington, says that the new US administration wants to alleviate the issues of the Middle East, so it tends to redefine its relationship with Riyadh without harming the interests of both sides.

Yemeni researcher Nadwa Al-Dossari suggested that the Biden administration is exerting pressure on Saudi Arabia and will agree with the Houthis (Al-Jazeera)

She added that the US administration, since the era of Democratic President Barack Obama (2009-2017), has been criticized due to the war in Yemen by human rights organizations, which prompted Washington to announce the cessation of its support for Saudi Arabia in the war.

The researcher suggested that the Biden administration will exert pressure on Saudi Arabia and agree with the Houthis, as well as pressure President Hadi to sign a political agreement and reach a state of peace to end the war as it is.

In her opinion, Yemen is not a priority for the US administration, and the removal of the Houthis as a "foreign terrorist organization" is one of the larger steps aimed at ending the crisis.

The researcher added that the Saudis are afraid of the new American pressure, and they seek a solution in Yemen, and it is possible that they will accept a political settlement.

Step up on the ground

According to the Yemeni researcher, the Houthi escalation on the ground has nothing to do with the new American policy, as they preserved Biden's determination to stop the war by advancing on the ground.

And she stressed that if the Houthis take control of Marib, this will improve their negotiating position and give them oil sources before any political settlement.

In agreement with the researcher, Ali Al-Dailami, a researcher at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, said that the Biden administration seeks to reduce tension in the Gulf region, in a manner that ensures Saudi support in defending its territories from external attacks carried out by Iranian-backed groups, and this is what makes Washington's security strategy towards its ally ( Riyadh) is clear.

The Houthis seek to control oil-rich Marib before any possible negotiations to find a settlement to the conflict in Yemen (Al-Jazeera)

In addition to the Houthis, the Lebanese "Hezbollah" group, Iraqi Shiite factions and the Syrian regime are allied with Iran, and that axis is reciprocating hostility with the United States, Israel and allied Arab regimes.

Al-Dulaimi added that the appointment of a US special envoy to Yemen is a clear strategic step that fulfills the declared desire of the Biden administration to stop the Yemen war, and does not make it inconsistent with regional agendas.

In the researcher's opinion, Washington is seeking to contain the Houthi group away from Iran, which is in its interest to continue the war in Yemen.

Tehran is seeking, according to observers, to use this war to improve its position in any future negotiations with Washington.

Al-Dulaimi explained that the United States and Iran are among the controversial files, including Tehran's nuclear and missile programs, and the foreign policy of the two countries in the Middle East.