Regional elections: Who will win the battle of Hauts-de-France?

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20 minutes

  • The health crisis linked to Covid-19 has postponed regional elections by six months.

    The National Assembly has fixed, in mid-February, the election dates for June 13 and 20.

  • Four months before the ballot,

    20 Minutes 

    takes stock of the candidates declared or announced to succeed Xavier Bertrand, president of the Hauts-de-France region.

  • Between a divided left and an RN who remains in ambush, Xavier Bertrand leaves favorite in an election that will condition his presence in the 2022 presidential election

Double or quits.

Candidate for his re-election for the post of president of the Hauts-de-France region, Xavier Bertrand will play big in the regional elections of June 13 and 20, 2021. The elected official, who conditioned a presidential candidacy on a victory for the regional ones, with pressure.

At the top of the voting intentions according to a poll carried out on November 24, 2020 by the FIFG, the former minister remains the big favorite to his own succession four months before the poll as recognized by Rémi Lefebvre, professor of political science at the university from Lille.

“Xavier Bertrand has imposed his leadership at the regional level.

He is also one of the rare regional presidents with national notoriety.

It helps to make the region visible in the national media.

One might think that using the region as a springboard for the presidential election is a disservice.

But no, because it plays on an old political side which still works quite well.

He took a risk by conditioning his presidential candidacy on a regional victory.

But at the same time, if he is not re-elected, he will have no legitimacy to be a candidate for the presidency, ”assures the political scientist.

The RN as the main outsider

To thwart his plans, beat him and therefore prevent him from appearing in 2022 against the French, the Rassemblement National hopes to play the spoilsport.

In 2015, Marine Le Pen had also come well ahead of the first round (40.64%) before shattering in the second round against the Republican dam led by Xavier Bertrand (58% against 42%).

This year, the president of the RN will not be a candidate for the regional ones.

To replace her, the party has bet on the deputy of the North Sébastien Chenu.

If he is much less known than Le Pen, the anchoring of the RN in Hauts-de-France can allow it to play the role of the main outsider.

“The equation will be different from 2015 when the whole election was made around Marine Le Pen.

With Chenu, we will talk a lot less about the RN.

But be careful not to underestimate too much the far right which is rooted in Hauts-de-France.

We are in a territory which is a real laboratory for the RN between rural Picardy and the former mining basin.

I even think that the far right can still be ahead of Xavier Bertrand in the first round, ”says Rémi Lefebvre.

A disunited left

To avoid the announced Bertrand-Chenu duel, the left hopes to get out of the game and return to the regional hemicycle.

In 2015, the PS list, which came third in the first round, withdrew to avoid a triangular favorable to Le Pen.

A Republican roadblock which deprived him of the least elected for six years in the region.

To avoid a new nightmarish scenario, everyone calls for unity from the first round.

Except that today, no one is ready to give up their place.

Between Ugo Bernalicis (rebellious France), Fabien Roussel (Communist Party), Patrick Kanner (Socialist Party) and Karima Delli (Greens), four left-wing lists are announced four months before the ballot.

A deadly strategy according to Rémi Lefebvre.

“Historically, the Hauts-de-France region has long been a land of the left.

But there, it seems shrunken because popular circles no longer vote for it but for the RN.

Despite all this, she still enjoys the luxury of division.

If it stays that way, it's dead for the left.

Whereas paradoxically, if everyone ends up agreeing with a large union list, there is a blow to be played.

There may be a start, but the left is so self-destructive that it is also capable of doing anything, ”said the political scientist.

LREM launches the presidential match

Between the left and Xavier Bertrand, the leeway of the LREM list led by Laurent Pietraszewski, seems very slim to play a real role.

But the Secretary of State in charge of Pensions will be mainly there to launch the presidential match.


“The equation is complicated for LREM.

It was not possible not to put a candidate against Xavier Bertrand before the presidential election.

They couldn't offer him a boulevard.

Even if it will be very complicated in this election for the party in power, ”concludes Rémi Lefebvre.

Our regional file

Laboratory for the presidential election between a possible candidate for 2022, the RN as an outsider and a disunited left, these regional in Hauts-de-France will be rich in lessons.

It remains to be seen whether voters will follow suit.

In 2015, excluding the health crisis, the abstention rate fluctuated between 45% in the first round and 39% in the second.

Figures that could climb next June unless the virus still decides to postpone a poll initially scheduled for March.

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