The deadline has expired .. What are the repercussions of stopping the additional protocol on the Iranian nuclear program?

The depression that Tehran is witnessing these days has not been able to reduce the Iranian threat by continuing to reduce its commitments in the nuclear deal.

With the end of the deadline for lifting the US sanctions, some are asking, "What are the implications of stopping the implementation of the additional protocol?"

It becomes clear to an observer of the Iranian issue that the leaders of the Islamic Republic are dealing with the nuclear agreement file signed in 2015 according to an elaborate plan, the features of which were defined by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who stipulated that the US sanctions be lifted in a practical and final way before his country returns to the implementation of its commitments in the agreement.

While observers in Iran believe that the chances of lifting sanctions even before February 23 (the date of the implementation of the Iranian decision) are diminishing, and that the government of President Hassan Rouhani will be obligated according to the parliament law to implement 9 escalatory steps, the professor of international law at Tehran University, Yusef Mawlai, warned of dissociation The nuclear agreement is concluded in the event of canceling the additional protocol.

The special additional protocol is part of the countries ’relationship with the International Atomic Energy Agency, not just Iran. It is separate from the Iranian nuclear agreement, and states sign the protocol voluntarily and voluntarily.

It is not binding, unlike the laws of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the protocol provides a mechanism for sudden inspection of some nuclear sites after countries are notified of this relatively shortly before.

Violent reactions

In an article published in the Iranian newspaper Arman Melli, Mawlaei indicated that the additional protocol occupies a central position in the nuclear agreement, and expected the Iranian move to collide with violent reactions from members of the Security Council and the 4 + 1 group, which could lead to an international consensus to exert more pressure on Tehran. .

He suggested an emergency meeting of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency and Washington's invitation to discuss the Iranian file in the Security Council, which could lead to the re-activation of the UN and European sanctions against Tehran, stressing that he is not optimistic that his country will achieve its goal through the road map set by Parliament.

Mollaei concluded that the administration of US President Joe Biden is under pressure from the public who voted for his rival Donald Trump in the 2020 presidencies, as well as some allies of the United States in the Middle East, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries that are urging Washington not to comply with Iranian demands.

Commitment versus commitment

And whether Tehran is willing to pay the tax to continue reducing its obligations in the nuclear deal, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee in the Iranian parliament, Fada Hossein Maleki, said that national interests are the ones that determine the policies of the Islamic Republic and that no authority in Iran is superior to the rule of law.

The Iranian parliament had passed a law in late November 2020 obliging Hassan Rouhani's government to implement 9 escalation steps.

One of them is stopping the implementation of the additional protocol and expelling the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency if the Americans do not lift the financial, banking and oil sanctions by February 21.

This will restrict some aspects of the activities of the inspectors of the International Energy Agency, which confirmed that Tehran informed it of the entry into force of the step on the 23rd of this month.

Khamenei requires verification that US sanctions are lifted before Tehran returns to implementing its obligations in the nuclear deal (Iranian press)

Maliki stressed - in his speech to Al Jazeera Net - that failure to implement the Iranian parliament law will have repercussions that may outweigh potential Western pressure on his country, stressing that Tehran has not and will not close the door to diplomacy to save the nuclear deal, and has previously launched the principle of "step in exchange for step and commitment in exchange for commitment." ".

He added that the opportunity remains available to Washington until the last minutes of the deadline to lift its sanctions on Iran, explaining that Biden is able to lift all sanctions on Tehran at once, as his predecessor Trump restored them with one signature after his 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear agreement.

Crisis on the horizon

In response to a question about possible Iranian interaction regarding US steps, especially the announcement by the Donald Trump administration of re-imposing UN sanctions on Tehran from the Security Council, and ending restrictions on the Iranian diplomatic mission’s movements at the United Nations in New York, Maleki said that Iranian demands to return to the implementation of its obligations in the nuclear agreement It is clear that the lifting of sanctions determines whether or not to stop the implementation of the Additional Protocol.

Tehran stipulated the practical and final lifting of US sanctions before returning to implement its commitments in the (French) nuclear deal.

For his part, Abbas Aslani, a researcher at the Middle East Center for Strategic Studies, believes that Tehran will cancel the additional protocol "forced" by the Iranian Parliament Act and the American negligence of it, explaining that his country's failure to implement its threats will negatively affect its reputation at the international level.

Aslani expected - in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net - to fabricate a new crisis over the Iranian nuclear and increase pressure on Iran in the next stage, adding that the coming tension will not last for long, but rather will accelerate the pace of Washington's return to the nuclear agreement.

Loss of confidence index

While the Iranians interacted on social media with the hashtags of "the nuclear deal, abolishing the additional protocol and lifting the sanctions," the account of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei on Twitter re-posted a previous tweet requiring verification of the practical lifting of US sanctions before Tehran returns to implementing its obligations in the nuclear deal.

Meanwhile, the director of the Arab Center for Iranian Studies, Muhammad Salih Sidqian, considered that Khamenei's tweet "is an indication of the Iranians' loss of confidence in American credibility," as he put it.

In his tweet on Twitter, Sidqian wrote, "I do not think that there is a solution to the knot except for the strengthening of confidence on the part of Washington, which owns the ball, and other than that, matters will remain in place until after the Iranian presidential elections."