The Dilemma of Low Fertility in Northeast China
Recently, the plight of low birthrates in Northeast China has aroused concern.
In fact, as early as 20 years ago, the three provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang had fallen into the "birth trap" among the enrolled students, and the total fertility rate was below 1.0.
The "Report on the Development of China's Floating Population 2016" shows that from 2006 to 2015, the average annual population growth rate in Northeast China was only 0.21%, which was far below the national level of 0.5% over the same period, and population growth basically stagnated.
On February 18, the National Health Commission responded to the National People's Congress "Recommendations on Solving the Problem of Population Decline in the Northeast Region" and stated that the Northeast region can explore the full liberalization of population birth restrictions based on local realities, which subsequently attracted attention.
Last night, the National Health Commission reiterated its reply, stating that speculations on the Internet, such as "the Northeast region will liberalize birth restrictions in the pilot program," and "the birth policy will be fully liberalized," were not the original intention of the response.
Nevertheless, the issue of low fertility in the Northeast is still a public issue.
In a broader scope, how to escape the low-fertility trap has also become an urgent problem to be solved.
Fall into a fertility trap early
Ms. Liu, 59, who lives in Changchun, feels more and more about the aging tendency of her surrounding occupations.
"When I was young, many positions were young people, such as shopping mall salesperson, park ticket salesman, etc. But now when I go to the supermarket, almost all the employees are older people."
Ms. Liu went to work in the school after graduation in the 1980s. Most of the school employees are young people in their 20s.
Later, there were fewer and fewer young faces.
"Especially before I retired, around 2012, almost all the people who worked in our unit were around 40 years old."
Before the topic of "the Northeast took the lead in exploring the liberalization of birth restrictions" came into the public eye, the fertility plight of the population in the Northeast had surfaced.
The total fertility rate, as an important indicator to measure the fertility level, refers to the average number of children born to each woman in a country or region according to the fertility level or fertility pattern of a certain year.
"At present, the academic circles generally believe that to achieve the normal population replacement level and maintain the basic stability of the population between the upper and lower generations, the total fertility rate should generally reach 2.1, and the total fertility rate should drop below 1.5. Some scholars call it a fertility trap. "Said Yao Yinmei, an associate professor at the Institute of Population and Development of Zhejiang University.
Looking at the data in Northeast China: In 2000, the total fertility rates of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang were 0.98, 0.84 and 0.88 respectively, which were already lower than 1.0.
Ten years later, in 2010, the total fertility rate of the three northeastern provinces further dropped to 0.74, 0.76 and 0.75, which is close to the level of the two municipalities directly under the central government of Beijing and Shanghai, ranking third to fifth in the country.
Lu Jiehua, a professor of the Department of Sociology at Peking University, said in an interview with a reporter from the Beijing News that the population problem in the Northeast is not a matter of two or three years.
"We are paying attention to the issue of economic revitalization in Northeast China and found that since the reform and opening up, the local fertility rate has been relatively low."
The Northeast Big Brother, who became the vanguard in the early days of the founding of New China, had an urbanization rate of 21.27% in 1949, and an urbanization rate of 49.47% in Northeast China in 1995, 20.4% higher than the national average.
Song Limin, director of the Public Policy Research Center of the Population Research Institute of Liaoning University, analyzed that in the early days of New China, many talented people went to the Northeast to participate in economic construction, so the quality of the Northeast population is relatively high in the country.
Demographically speaking, the higher the level of industrialization and urbanization in a region, the higher the education level of the population, and the lower the willingness to bear children.
Therefore, when strict birth control policies were not implemented, the total fertility rate in Northeast China was already lower than the national average.
In other words, the low fertility rate and the change in fertility willingness that have become a public topic in recent years have already been experienced in the Northeast.
"Economic development will allow people to enjoy more complete social welfare and social security. From the perspective of population economics, as the cost of raising children increases, the utility of children decreases. With the development of society, women’s education level Increased height requires more effort at the academic and work levels, so the willingness to have children is relatively low." Yao Yinmei said.
"Development is the best contraceptive." She said bluntly.
In addition to the natural "cooling" of fertility caused by economic development and urbanization, the national policy of family planning has accelerated the transition to a low fertility rate in Northeast China.
Song Limin analyzed that after the implementation of the family planning policy, control in the Northeast region was relatively strict.
Because of the strong implementation of the policy, many people dare not violate the childbirth policy. This is related to the high proportion of the state-owned economy in Northeast China. There are many "units" and it is easy to control through work and status.
"The more developed the urbanization, the higher the proportion of employees. They not only enjoy labor security, but also enjoy higher benefits in housing, education, medical care, and pensions. Once they are punished for violation of the policy, they will suffer economic losses. It will not only pay fines, but also directly affect their promotion and salary increase, and even face unemployment or cancellation of urban household registration." Hou Li, an associate professor at the Northeast Asian Research Institute of Jilin University, wrote in an article that few urban workers are willing to give birth to more children. And bear the high cost of violating the policy, so that the family planning policy has achieved better results in the Northeast.
In the previous article, Ms. Liu recalled that a neighbor was fined for over-birth, his salary was downgraded, and life became very stressful.
"Later, the level of punishment seemed to be getting heavier and heavier. The work in our era was different from now. Someone who lost their job might really have no income."
The pattern of low fertility has emerged
Due to multiple factors, the pattern of low birthrates in Northeast China has emerged.
Song Limin put forward the concept of "rigidity of fertility intention" in fertility research in the past few years.
She explained that once the population's willingness to bear children is reduced, it is difficult to increase, which in turn forms a kind of inertia, unwilling to have more children.
27-year-old Yang Jingyao bluntly said that his generation has little willingness to prosper.
"The majority of my friends of the same age in Changchun are married and many have given birth to children. But among the people I know, only one friend has a second child."
In 2011, the population of Liaoning Province began to enter negative growth.
Hou Li pointed out that due to the continuous decline in the fertility rate, the proportion of the population aged 0-19 in the Northeast in 2010 has dropped to 6.01%.
Through intergenerational transmission and the ever-expanding population exodus, the population of childbearing age in Northeast China will further decline in the next 20 years, which will inevitably have a more serious impact on the decline in fertility.
What cannot be ignored is that the fertility of the Northeast population has worsened and the economic problem cannot be avoided.
At this time, the Northeast region has faded from the development trend of Big Brother and entered the throes of industrial transformation.
At the end of 2015, the permanent population of Liaoning Province decreased by 90,000 compared to 2014; at the same time, Liaoning was also the only province with negative growth in the GDP growth ranking in the first half of 2016.
In its reply this time, the National Health Commission also stated that the total population reduction in Northeast China reflects comprehensive and systemic issues such as the regional economic system, industrial structure, and social policies.
For example, with the exhaustion of resources and the upgrading and transformation of national industries, a large number of young laborers cannot find satisfactory jobs locally, and can only flow to areas with better economies and higher wages.
"In 2015, the downward pressure on Liaoning's economy increased, the contradiction between system and structural transformation was prominent, and there was a net loss of population. The economic downturn will affect the employment opportunities, employment income and future development prospects of residents, so there will be population exodus." Song Limin said In our research, we subtracted the number of natural population growth from the permanent population and found that from 2000 to 2014, the average annual net inflow in Liaoning Province was about 50,000.
Since 2015, the average annual net outflow has been around 50,000.
Song Limin did a micro-study using the national floating population dynamic monitoring data in 2017 and selected more than 10,000 samples. The conclusion is that the population exodus has the greatest relationship with economic growth, wage levels, openness to the outside world, and capital per capita.
She told a reporter from the Beijing News that the high-quality labor force in the northeast outflow population is particularly sensitive to these economic variables. It can be said that the loss of the Northeast region is high-quality, young labor.
At the same time, the influx is the older population with lower education level.
The study found that the average years of education of the inflow and outflow population differed by nearly two years.
After graduating from Jilin University in 2016, Yang Jingyao worked in Harbin for a while, but resigned the next year and went to Beijing to work as an editor for a newspaper.
"When I was working in Beijing, I often sighed that it would be great if this job was in the spring of old parents."
Over the years, "returning or not" is Yang Jingyao's daily "entanglement".
"Should I compromise with life and go home." Until 2019, the landlord in Beijing didn't want to renew the rent, so he made a decision to bid farewell to his friends in Beijing and return to his hometown to find a new job.
Economic downturn and negative population growth are mutual cause and effect, and continue to cycle.
According to the "Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development in 2019", the permanent population of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang decreased by 76,000, 133,300 and 218,000 respectively at the end of 2019.
In other words, the three northeastern provinces decreased by 427,300 in a year.
Population development is the endogenous driving force of economic growth, and the data in Northeast China is not optimistic.
During the National Two Sessions last year, many representatives from the Liaoning delegation focused on the issue of population fertility and made suggestions.
Chen Xiangqun, deputy to the National People’s Congress and executive vice governor of Liaoning Province, proposed when reviewing the government work report that he urged the first to fully liberalize the population birth policy in the Northeast region; Li Tianshu, a deputy to the National People’s Congress and general manager of PetroChina Fushun Petrochemical Company, suggested that attention should be paid to the brain drain in the Northeast. The problem of population loss; Liu Hong, a representative of the National People's Congress and president of Dalian University of Foreign Languages, suggested that the state implement a pilot program of liberalization of fertility policies in Northeast China, accelerate the construction of a child-friendly society, increase the willingness of women of childbearing age to bear children, and slow down the population decline and aging.
Last night, the National Health Commission reiterated its previous reply, stating that there are many reasons for the long-term population decline in Northeast China, and it cannot be solved simply by liberalizing the birth policy.
The view of "please the country to fully liberalize the birth policy restrictions in the Northeast" requires comprehensive and in-depth research and demonstration.
Based on this, communicated and discussed with the representatives.
He also pointed out that speculations on the Internet, such as "the Northeast region will liberalize birth restrictions in the pilot program," and "the birth policy will be fully liberalized," are not the original intention of the reply.
"The population problem in the Northeast is not an isolated phenomenon"
The plight of low birthrates in Northeast China also reflects the current situation in China to a certain extent.
Earlier, Minister of Civil Affairs Li Jiheng wrote an article that my country's total fertility rate has fallen below the warning line, and population development has entered a critical transition period.
"The population problem in the Northeast is not an isolated phenomenon. It may represent a trend in the future, and may even be inevitable." Lu Jiehua said that our social and economic development has reached a certain stage. People's concept of fertility is changing, and some no longer regard fertility as required.
Coupled with the impact of the previous family planning policy, the size of the family is already shrinking. Although the population is growing slowly, it is an inertial growth. There is still a large amount in the short term, but the population structure has undergone great changes.
Lu Jiehua said that now we are seeing the three northeastern provinces, and the next step might be the western regions such as Sichuan and Chongqing. They also have a large number of exodus.
How to escape the low birth trap?
Has become a public issue.
Yao Yinmei said that the "14th Five-Year Plan" suggested that the inclusive birth policy should be enhanced.
In this regard, she believes that the National Health Commission proposed that, on a certain basis, Northeast China can explore the implementation of a comprehensive fertility policy pilot, which can understand a manifestation of the inclusiveness of the fertility policy.
Song Limin believes that the human capital investment and accumulation abandoned in the process of raising children affects career advancement, affects leisure and entertainment, and squeezes a lot of time, quality of life and professional achievements, especially for women, the loss is greater, so the idea will be reduced.
Low willingness to give birth is not a problem unique to Northeast China, but a problem worldwide.
She proposed to construct a child-friendly society.
“Birth is conducive to the balanced development of society, and having children is actually contributing to society. However, the change of people’s concepts requires a certain amount of time and more institutional support. If some measures are taken to let everyone know the benefits of having more children, it will produce A certain effect."
In terms of specific measures, Song Limin believes that tax reduction or exemption is a top priority. At present, only 1,000 yuan per tax reduction for families with children is not enough.
It is necessary to establish the payment of maternity allowances, and adopt a progressive maternity allowance system based on differences in birth order and age differences of children.
In addition, she suggested that maternity leave should be extended appropriately and a gender-equal parental leave should be established.
"At present, there are many mothers in our country raising children, but fathers are rarely involved. In 2015, when we conducted a family fertility survey, we found that the father’s companionship for infants and young children was surprisingly little." She told reporters, therefore, we believe that gender equality must be implemented The concept of parenting, to achieve collaborative parenting.
Some European countries have implemented a quota system for parental leave, requiring fathers to take 90 days off. If there are not enough days, the mother’s leave will also be cancelled.
This is a very friendly system design that will reduce the fatigue and pain of women raising children.
Exploring whether the liberalization of birth restrictions can "bring birth"?
The reply of the National Health Commission was screened in the circle of friends.
However, talking with friends, everyone's attitude is not optimistic.
Liu Guo is an employee of a public institution in Jilin and the mother of two children.
"I can't imagine how tired it is to have a third child." "Lack of financial resources and energy is a common problem faced by middle-aged people in Northeast China."
Liu Guo's best friend Xiao Yi had a direct ligation operation when she gave birth to her second child by caesarean section.
"Like Xiao Yi, we didn’t even plan to have our second child. In 2015, after my son was born, my lover and I never planned to have a second child. After getting pregnant again in 2019, my lover and I let it happen. He wants to be born and also hopes that the boss will have company."
Can "exploring the liberalization of birth restrictions in the Northeast" play a "promoting" role?
Liu Guo said that after the two-child policy was liberalized, some friends indeed chose to have another one.
But if you want to ask for the third and the fourth, everyone can't take interest.
"There is a rational choice theory of marginal children in demography. The more children you have, the lower the marginal benefit and the higher the marginal cost. As a result, the willingness to give birth continues to decrease as the number of children increases." Song Limin explained.
"No self, no time, no money." Wang Ying (pseudonym) of Harbin bluntly stated that there are no realistic conditions for liberalizing birth restrictions.
"It costs money to raise children everywhere. It is not the Northeast who spends more, but the Northeast earns less. With low wages and few industries, these problems cannot be solved by supporting policies like a few degrees."
Economic pressure is the consensus of interviewees.
"At present, the wage level in Northeast China is not high, but the price is not low. To maintain a better standard of living, you cannot afford to have more children. The friend who gave birth to two children has a very good family background." Yang Jingyao said.
The National Health Commission mentioned one point in its reply that it is necessary to "study and implement the supporting documents required to implement the comprehensive deregulation policy."
Yao Yinmei pointed out that the supporting social and economic policies should be the "sticking point", so as to solve the problem of not wanting, unwilling or not daring to give birth.
The key to "dare to have a child" lies in the high economic cost of raising a child. The costs of housing, production, raising, childcare, education, etc. are all very high. The problem of taking care of children after giving birth is facing certain difficulties, as well as some reproductive support. Public facilities.
"It is very important to build fertility support for multiple co-governance." Yao Yinmei said that the fertility support policy for multiple co-governance should be the collaboration of multiple departments and groups, including governments, social organizations, enterprises, institutions, communities, and individuals. , And jointly introduced relevant policies for the formation of better fertility, nurturing, education and other aspects.
"The National Health Commission proposes that the Northeast region can begin to explore the full liberalization of birth restrictions is a very good indicator. In the future, through pilots, my country may gradually open up independent childbirth in a timely and appropriate manner based on actual conditions." Yao Yinmei said.
Beijing News reporter Wang Jun, Sha Xueliang, Ying Yue, Dai Xuan, Zhang Lu, Xu Meihui, Jiang Huizi, and Wu Wei