The National Health Commission replied that "Northeast China liberalizes birth restrictions"
It can be based on actual exploration, organize experts to conduct research, and propose a pilot program for implementing a comprehensive birth policy in Northeast China
Last year, Chen Xiangqun, deputy to the National People's Congress and executive vice governor of Liaoning Province, suggested to take the lead in liberalizing the birth policy in Northeast China.
The National Health Commission recently stated that the Northeast region can explore based on actual conditions and propose a pilot program for implementing a comprehensive birth policy in the Northeast region.
Lu Jiehua, a professor in the Department of Sociology at Peking University, believes that the Northeast population problem has complex causes, which are related to the early urbanization, economic development, and institutional environment.
●The National Health Commission responded
Do a good job of judgment and risk assessment
According to the statistical bulletin on the development of my country's health services issued by the National Health Commission over the years, in 2019, the number of births in my country was 14.65 million, which was a decrease of 580,000 from 15.23 million in 2018.
At the National Two Sessions last year, many representatives of the Liaoning League made suggestions on population issues.
Representative Chen Xiangqun suggested that he be the first to fully liberalize the birth policy in the Northeast.
Recently, the National Health Commission responded to the "Recommendations on Solving the Problem of Population Decline in Northeast China."
It said that "it is recommended that the state take the lead in liberalizing population birth restrictions in the Northeast region", which is of great reference value for the work of the committee.
The Northeast region can conduct exploration based on local reality, organize experts to conduct research, and in-depth study and judge the impact of comprehensive liberalization of birth restrictions on local economic growth, social harmony and stability, resource and environmental strategies, basic public services, etc.; do a good job in the estimation of population changes after policy adjustments ; To study and implement the supporting documents required to implement the comprehensive deregulation policy; to assess the social risks of policy changes, etc.
On this basis, a pilot program for implementing a comprehensive birth policy in Northeast China is proposed.
Wang Guifen, director of the Liaoning Provincial Health Commission, said in an interview with the media that since the full implementation of the policy that one couple can have two children in October 2015, the population fertility rate in Liaoning Province has rebounded slightly, but the total population continues to decline.
In 2020, the Liaoning Provincial Health Commission mentioned in its response to the recommendation No. 12030062 of the Third Session of the Twelfth CPPCC National Committee that since the implementation of the “Comprehensive Two-Child” policy in 2016, the proportion of births in Liaoning Province has reached 35. % Above, lower than the national average.
The policy has a limited impact on the number of births in the province, and the fertility rate will remain at a low level for some time to come.
According to data released by the Liaoning Provincial Health Commission, in 2018, the total permanent population of Liaoning Province was 43.59 million, the birth rate was 6.39‰, the death rate was 7.39‰, and the natural population growth rate was -1‰, which is far lower than the national natural population growth. The birth rate is 3.81‰; the birth rate is 6.39‰, which is lower than the national 10.94‰, ranking 25th in the country.
Relevant institutions have carried out many surveys
The National Health Commission stated in its reply that in response to the negative growth of the population in the Northeast region, the Commission has entrusted relevant agencies to conduct local investigations.
The decrease in the total population of Northeast China reflects the comprehensive and systemic problems of the regional economic system, industrial structure, and social policies.
For example, with the depletion of resources and the upgrading and transformation of national industries, a large number of young laborers cannot find satisfactory jobs locally, and can only flow to areas with better economies and higher wages.
The childbirth policy in the northeast border area is relatively loose (for example, Heilongjiang Province stipulates that both spouses can have three children if they are residents of the border area), but the willingness to bear children is not high.
The reason is that economic and social factors have become an important factor affecting fertility, especially the economic burden, infant and child care, and female career development. The public’s response is particularly prominent, and the impact of fertility policies on fertility behavior has been greatly reduced.
The Liaoning Provincial Health Commission mentioned in its response to the suggestion of the Provincial People’s Congress in 2019 that the province’s 15-49-year-old women of childbearing age have a small base and a trend of declining year by year. In addition, life pressure is high, childcare is difficult, and childcare costs are high. There are more and more women of childbearing age who are willing to give birth, do not want to give birth, and dare not give birth.
Faced with the increasingly severe situation of “4-2-2” for the elderly, “affordable but unable to support” is an unavoidable fertility problem for the new generation of only-child women of childbearing age. They have to work hard and take care of the elderly. The pressure of children has become one of the main reasons for the decline in the fertility rate in the province.
● Dialogue with Professor Lu Jiehua of Peking University
The population problem in the Northeast has a long history and has complex causes
The Beijing News: Over the years, the negative population growth problem in the Northeast has attracted attention from the outside world. How serious is the local population problem?
Lu Jiehua: The population problem in the Northeast is not something that only happened in two or three years.
In our attention to the issue of economic revitalization in Northeast China, we found that after the reform and opening up, the local fertility rate was relatively low. At the same time, the local "cannot retain people" and the outflow rate of young people, including high-quality talents, is very important. One aspect of
Beijing News: Why is the Northeast like this?
Lu Jiehua: It is related to many factors.
From an economic point of view, why does the population flow out, and many of them flow to some cities in the coastal areas?
It has a certain relationship with local economic development and institutional environment.
From a historical point of view, the Northeast is an old industrial base. In the early stage of reform and development, the urbanization ratio in the Northeast was relatively high, and most of the cities were only children. The local family planning policy was strictly implemented in both urban and rural areas. Since then, the local population has been decreasing.
Northeast China entered negative growth first from Liaoning, followed by Jilin and Heilongjiang.
Among them, Liaoning has made a mid- and long-term population development plan relatively early, and paid attention to the impact of population on the social economy earlier.
Beijing News: The representative suggested that the birth policy should be liberalized. However, many people commented that it is not a problem of not giving birth to children, but a problem of not being able to support them. What do you think?
What are the effects of fully liberalizing the birth policy, and will it achieve the desired results?
Lu Jiehua: Liberalizing the birth policy is not simply to increase the size of the population, but also to provide labor for future economic and social development, make the population structure relatively good, and slow down the aging process.
It is still difficult to judge how much effect the liberalization can play, but the liberalization is at least a signal, at least in optimizing the fertility policy and increasing the inclusiveness of the fertility policy, it is very important to make better practical explorations. .
If the fertility policy is more relaxed, at least some people who are willing to give birth will be able to reproduce independently.
As for whether the desired effect is achieved, it can only be seen after practice.
If it fails to meet expectations, more proactive policies are needed to make the people affordable and affordable, such as establishing a family-friendly policy support system to reduce education costs; if it fails, we must prepare for the aging of the population. Way to respond.
Beijing News: Will other regions face the same pressure?
Lu Jiehua: I think the population problem in the Northeast is not an isolated phenomenon, it may represent a trend in the future, and may even be inevitable.
Our socio-economic development has reached a certain stage, people's concept of fertility is changing, and some people no longer regard fertility as a necessary option.
Coupled with the impact of the previous family planning policy, the size of the family is already shrinking. Although the population is growing slowly, it is an inertial growth. There is still a large amount in the short term, but the population structure has undergone great changes.
In areas where family planning was implemented well in the past, if there is no inflow of labor, negative population growth and population aging will come sooner.
What we are seeing now are the three provinces of the East, and the next step may be Sichuan, Chongqing and other western regions. They also have a large number of exodus.
The eastern region is slightly better, such as southern Jiangsu, Wuxi, Suzhou and other places, although the family planning policy is also very strict, but they can attract foreign labor, dilute the local population growth and aging problems, and provide economic development.了Support.
Beijing News: Many economically developed countries are also facing declining birthrates and aging. How do they encourage childbirth and what is the effect?
Lu Jiehua: From a global perspective, the United States and Canada rely on immigrants to alleviate the problem of declining fertility in their countries; most European countries have not been effective in encouraging childbirth, especially in southern Europe; some countries in northern Europe are not bad, such as Sweden and Denmark; Russia has introduced relatively active policies to encourage childbirth, including financial subsidies. The fertility rate has rebounded in the past two years. However, studies in most European countries have found that the role of cash subsidies is not particularly obvious, and it is not as good as support for childcare services.
In general, it is difficult to maintain a long-term population fertility target, and the same policy will play different roles in different regions.
●Dialogue with Song Limin, a population expert in Liaoning
Liberalization of birth restrictions should be fully liberalized
The National Health Commission stated in its reply that it had commissioned Jilin University, Liaoning University and other institutions to carry out research on issues related to negative population growth in Northeast China.
On the afternoon of February 19th, the reporter contacted the researcher Song Limin who undertook the subject at Liaoning University.
Beijing News reporter Sha Xueliang
Beijing News: Liaoning is known as the first province to advocate encouraging birth. What specific measures have been introduced in recent years?
Song Limin: In the past few years, we worked with the Liaoning Provincial Development and Reform Commission to compile the medium and long-term population development plan of Liaoning Province. At that time, we proposed to encourage childbirth, and Liaoning Province became the first province in the country to encourage childbirth.
However, from the perspective of population policy, there is still a period of conceptual change from restricting fertility to encouraging fertility. Only after the conceptual change can there be a change in policies and specific measures. It is still in the transitional stage.
The Beijing News: If the Northeast liberalizes birth restrictions, will it be completely liberalized, or will it change from a full second child to a third or fourth child?
Song Limin: I feel that if we let go, we must let go all the way. We should not make a fuss about quantity.
Previously, after the full release of the second child, there was no expected fertility rebound. If the third child is released, will there be more births?
There is a marginal child rational choice theory in demography, which says: the more children you have, the lower the marginal benefit and the higher the marginal cost. This leads to a decrease in the willingness to have children with the number of children.
Beijing News: Will the release of birth restrictions have a big impact on the number of newborns?
Song Limin: The impact will be there, but it is estimated to be small.
This is because before the full-scale, successively liberalizing the birth of two children for double independence, single and all families, did not cause a "blowout" of fertility, on the contrary, the national fertility level has continued to decline in recent years.
According to the "marginal child rational choice theory", the desire for the first few births is actually the strongest, and the willingness to bear children for subsequent births is getting lower and lower. If the policy effects continue to be liberalized, the policy effect will inevitably be further weakened.
Beijing News: You mentioned that it is currently a period of transition of fertility concepts and policies, and you believe that liberalizing birth restrictions will not have much impact on the decline in fertility. Then, if you want to encourage birth, what measures should be taken?
Song Limin: We are talking about building a child-friendly society.
Childbirth is conducive to the balanced development of society, and having children is actually making a contribution to society.
However, it takes a certain amount of time to change people's concepts, and even more requires institutional support.
If you take some measures to let everyone know the benefits of having more children, it will have a certain effect.
In terms of specific measures, tax reduction or exemption is a top priority. At present, a tax reduction of only 1,000 yuan per family with children is far from enough.
Germany, France and other countries have implemented family taxation systems. Treating children as a single person or half of an individual will lower the tax base and greatly reduce the financial burden of parenting families.
Taxation should be systematically sorted out, such as housing deed tax, business tax, maternal and child product tax, etc. are all worth discussing.
At the same time, we also propose to issue maternity allowances, and adopt a progressive maternity allowance system based on differences in birth order and age of children.
We propose to extend maternity leave appropriately and establish a gender-equal parental leave.
At present, there are many mothers in our country raising children, and fathers rarely participate.
In 2015, when we conducted a family fertility survey, we found that the father's company for infants and young children was surprisingly small.
Therefore, we believe that it is necessary to implement the concept of gender equality in parenting and realize coordinated parenting.
Some European countries have implemented a quota system for parental leave, requiring fathers to take 90 days off. If there are not enough days, the mother’s leave will also be cancelled.
This is a very friendly system design that will reduce the fatigue and pain of women raising children.
In addition, in terms of social support, in addition to the urgent need to solve the 0-3 year-old infant care, we recommend providing a full life cycle care.
0-3 years old, kindergarten, preschool, adolescents, etc. should be available at all stages, and establish a full life cycle care system.
This requires the help of social institutions, social workers and market forces to achieve this.
Beijing News reporter Dai Xuan