Study on the origin of the pandemic: The unusual Wuhan theses from Hamburg

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The University of Hamburg is making headlines with an unusual “study on the origin of the coronavirus pandemic”.

The question that 17 experts from the World Health Organization (WHO) were recently unable to answer during their China mission has now been answered by a physicist from a distance.

The 100-page paper was written by the nanoscientist Roland Wiesendanger.

His thesis: a laboratory accident at the virological institute in Wuhan city caused the pandemic.

As evidence, he cites the "number as well as the quality of the evidence".

First, ZDF reported on the publication of the preprint.

So the study has not yet been subjected to any scientific testing.

Regardless of the content of the paper, the process in itself raises questions.

For example, why is an applied physicist specializing in "raster sensor methods" writing a treatise on the origin of a virus mutation in Wuhan?

It is also unusual that Wiesendanger's publication is explicitly not aimed at the scientific community, but at the general public.

This also explains why he published the paper in German and not, as is generally the case in science, in English.

And then there is the questionable role of the University of Hamburg, which issued a press release on the publication of the preprint.

As a rule, research institutes only advertise the work of their scientists in this way for publication in a well-known scientific publication - even more if the results, as in this case, are evidence-based and therefore vulnerable.

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Wiesendanger told ZDF that the publication had been planned together with University President Dieter Lenzen.

“Freedom of science is an immovable good.

Nonetheless, it applies to all forms of scientific research that if the data situation is unclear or uncertain, it is advisable to exercise caution, ”said a spokesman for Science Senator Katharina Fegebank (Greens) on Friday to the discussion about the paper.

So what is the data that Wiesendanger relies on?

In the foreword, the 59-year-old already points out that his argument is based on a mixture of scientific primary literature, both published and pre-published (“preprints”), and published expressions of opinion.

Specifically, the latter are, for example, articles from “Focus” and the “Epoch Times”, as well as contributions from Twitter and YouTube.

"It's just a compilation of well-known documents and theories about a possible laboratory accident", criticized Volker Stollorz, editor-in-chief of the Science Media Center in Cologne, in relation to the ZDF news program "heute". Wiesendanger himself writes that so far “there is no science-based evidence in the strict sense” and therefore only circumstantial evidence can be cited.

Wiesendanger's theses in fact check

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So how does Wiesendanger come to the conclusion that the corona pandemic did not start in December 2019 at a fish and wildlife market in the Chinese city of Wuhan - according to the most common thesis to date - but that it originated two months earlier in a laboratory?

Thesis 1: "Coronaviruses, which originally go back to bats, do not lead to infectious diseases in humans as easily as we are experiencing in the current pandemic."

While that's true, it doesn't imply that this mutation has to be man-made.

A team of researchers from the USA, Scotland and Australia even came to the conclusion in a paper published in March 2020 in the specialist journal “Nature” that the special properties of the Sars-CoV-2 spike protein, which gives the virus its characteristic appearance, is probably that Result of natural selection in human or human-like organisms.

"This is strong evidence that Sars-CoV-2 is not the product of deliberate manipulation," the authors write.

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The WHO team, which presented the first results of its investigation in Wuhan a week ago, also tends to believe that the virus is of natural origin.

The international experts had visited several hospitals, institutes, laboratories and also the Huanan market in Wuhan, where the first recorded infections with the virus had occurred.

Team boss Peter Ben Embarek named it as the most likely scenario that the virus spread from bats to humans via a so-called "intermediate host".

However, experts have assessed the results presented by the WHO at the end of the trip as poor, and an official interim report is still pending.

Since their return, various accompanying experts have emphasized that many questions remained unanswered.

Peter Ben Embarek headed the World Health Organization (WHO) team that traveled to China in January

Source: dpa / Ng Han Guan

Thesis 2: “According to numerous reports, bats were not offered at the suspected wildlife market in Wuhan.

For many years, however, bat viruses were collected by the scientists of the "Wuhan Institute of Virology" in distant caves in a southern Chinese province and brought to Wuhan. "

It is true that bats themselves may not be offered in the Wuhan market.

However, this is neither a pro nor a contra argument, since such viruses can be transmitted to humans via intermediate hosts, for example.

In addition, according to Ben Embarek, the WHO is examining the thesis of whether the virus could have reached Wuhan in 2019 via frozen products from southern China, which are sold in large numbers on the Huanan market.

The frozen thesis is particularly popular in China because theoretically it would also allow the virus to be introduced from abroad.

However, WHO experts consider an infection via frozen products to be unlikely to this extent.

Hypothesis 3: "Coronavirus mutations could have taken place in intermediate host animals and ultimately have been transmitted to humans in wild animal markets.

However, such an intermediate host animal has not yet been identified in connection with the (...) pandemic. "

That's true - but it is neither a pro nor a contra argument.

Thesis 4: "A significant number of the very first Covid-19 patients in Wuhan had no contact with the suspected wildlife market."

China has been accused of having withheld knowledge of the first possible diseases as early as late autumn 2019.

According to the Dutch virologist Marion Koopmans, who traveled to China as part of the WHO commission, 92 patients were identified in Wuhan who had symptoms similar to Covid-19 before December 2019 after reviewing medical files.

Chinese authorities had tested those of the 92 who were still alive who could reach them for antibodies in the past few weeks.

There was no indication of a previous infection with Sars-CoV-2.

But it is not certain whether antibodies can still be present after such a long time.

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The WHO wants to continue investigating whether there were any minor outbreaks in China before December 2019.

Koopmans wants to search for this in blood banks that took samples from the Wuhan region in autumn 2019.

Access is being discussed with the Chinese authorities.

The "Wall Street Journal" reported, citing WHO researchers, that China refused to hand over the raw data on early Covid-19 cases.

The US government then called for better cooperation.

Beijing must ensure that the experts' mission remains independent and "free from interference or change by the Chinese government," said US President Joe Biden's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan.

The first findings of the mission and the investigation process give cause for "great concern".

Thesis 5: A research group at the “Wuhan Institute of Virology” not only examined naturally occurring coronaviruses, but also genetically manipulated them with the aim of making them more contagious and dangerous for humans.

It is true that coronavirus research is being carried out in Wuhan.

Thesis 6 - 8: A young scientist from the “Wuhan Institute of Virology” was the first to be infected with the novel coronavirus in the laboratory.

She has been considered to have disappeared since the end of 2019.

Security deficiencies at the institute were known.

Cell phone usage activities in and around the institute indicated that there was a temporary interruption in laboratory operations in the first half of October 2019.

The source situation for this is sensitive.

The Chinese authorities have been moderately cooperative in the past.

The search for the origin of the pathogen is considered a political issue.

China fears it could be blamed for the pandemic.

Conclusion

: What Wiesendanger writes can be right - but it doesn't have to be.

As with market theory, there is no clear evidence.

The WHO wants to investigate further.

For them, it's also about maintaining their credibility, as Biden's security adviser Sullivan also emphasized.

The top priority at this "critical time must be to protect WHO's credibility," he said.

Too often in the past few months the organization has had to be accused of being too tame towards the powerful Chinese government.