How far will the escalation between Sudan and Ethiopia go?
Military reinforcements are on their way from Khartoum to Gedaref State to be deployed on the Ethiopian border.
Trucks loaded with soldiers, artillery and armored vehicles.
Nicolas Cortes - Nicolas Cortes
Text by: RFI Follow
6 min
The two nations appear to have taken one step closer to war as their border dispute has now lasted three months.
After the Sudanese ambassador's recall to Addis Ababa earlier this week, the Ethiopian authorities accused the Sudanese army on Thursday of wanting to plunge the two parties into a large-scale conflict.
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While skirmishes and artillery fire have already killed dozens of people, Khartoum and Addis Ababa
keep raising their voices
, reports our correspondent in the Ethiopian capital,
Noé Hochet-Bodin
.
The latest statement from the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry goes a step further.
Sudan is accused there of having violated basic principles of international law, carrying out disinformation campaigns and adopting a provocative attitude towards Addis Ababa.
There is also talk of a third party manipulating Sudan.
Without being mentioned by name, this is obviously about Egypt, designated as the brain of the destabilization of Ethiopia, in particular because of their dispute over the Ethiopian dam on the Nile.
Press Statement on # Ethiopia- # Sudan Border Dispute.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Federal Democratic Republic of #Ethiopia.
pic.twitter.com/rJ7n4zutTs
- MFA Ethiopia🇪🇹 (@mfaethiopia) February 18, 2021
This further escalation takes away the chances of negotiations, in which Turkey and South Sudan are approached to take on the costume of mediator.
Complicated mediation
But the situation is "
complicated, sensitive and very dangerous,
" says a diplomat involved in mediation efforts between Sudan and Ethiopia to avoid escalation.
Indeed, each party stands on its position by advancing its conditions.
Sudan is seeking
to deploy its army north of el-Fashaga
, after its advance last December which allowed it to retake 90% of this region.
Ethiopia is simply asking for the withdrawal of the Sudanese army before any discussion.
The main point of difference is that for Ethiopia it is a border conflict while for Sudan el-Fashaga is an integral part of its territory according to the 1902 agreement.
This tension at the border is also rekindled by the disagreement over the filling of the Renaissance dam.
Addis Ababa intends to unilaterally start filling the second phase of the dam despite protests from Khartoum and Cairo.
Jean Marcou, professor of Sciences Po at the University of Grenoble
Houda Ibrahim
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