Medical science and social responsibility might defeat him
The world is required to prepare for the possibility that the Corona epidemic will become endemic
Vaccines contribute to curbing the "epidemic" significantly.
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Medical achievements contributed to changing the difficult equation.
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Social distancing remains an effective weapon against the spread of the "virus".
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Vaccines against the Coronavirus arrived early and worked better than many people had hoped.
Without it, the epidemic would threaten the lives of more than 150 million people.
However, as the world grows stronger, it has become clear that predicting the end of "Covid-19" is inaccurate.
Instead, the disease will spread for years, and it appears likely to become epidemic.
And when, for the first time, the virus struck, governments were surprised.
Now, she needs to think about the future.
Miracle
Describing the vaccination a miracle is not an exaggeration.
A little more than a year after the virus was first discovered, health workers have given 148 million doses in various countries of the world.
And in Israel, which is considered the world champion in vaccination, hospitalization for those under the age of 60 who have not received a dose of the vaccine is higher than ever.
In contrast, among those over the age of 60 who have been largely vaccinated, they are already almost 40% lower, compared to the mid-January peak, and the number will drop further.
Although the vaccines did not prevent mild and asymptomatic cases of "Covid-19", they most often prevented deaths and more severe infections, which required hospitalization, which is what really matters.
Early evidence suggests that some vaccines also stop the virus from spreading.
This would greatly slow the epidemic, and thus facilitate the easing of the lockdown without causing an increase in the number of cases in intensive care units.
These results, and many more, will solidify over the next few months as more data emerges.
However, despite all this good news, the Corona virus is not over yet.
It will continue to spread widely, and there is a growing realization that the virus will likely find a permanent home in humans.
This has profound implications for how governments respond.
A daunting task
One of the reasons the coronavirus persists is that creating and distributing a vaccine sufficient to protect 7.8 billion people worldwide is a daunting task.
Even Britain, which is vaccinating the population at a faster rate than any other large country, will not finish vaccinating people over the age of 50 until May.
To increase the burden, the strength of the doses may diminish, making it necessary to supplement with other doses.
Outside the rich world, 85% of countries have not yet started their vaccination programs.
Billions of people may not get their doses before 2023, and they will continue to fuel the virus.
The other reason for the persistence of the "Covid-19" virus is that even though vaccines make it less contagious and protect people from death, the new virus strains nullify some of their good work.
And for one reason, these strains are more contagious, between 25-40% in the case of the strain that was first found in Britain.
Cases and deaths accumulate rapidly, even if the strain is not fatal.
To obtain a certain level of virus deterrence, more stressful social distancing is needed.
In addition, new strains may survive existing vaccines.
And these strains, which are found in Brazil and South Africa, may defeat the acquired immunity from a previous infection of "Covid-19".
The hope is that such cases will be milder, as the immune system has prepared for its first encounter with the disease.
Even if this is true, the virus will continue to spread, create unprotected people - because this is what viruses do - and develop new strains, some of which will be able to evade the defenses societies have built against them.
The third reason for the virus to persist is that many people will choose to remain vulnerable to infection by refusing to be vaccinated.
A total of 10 million Britons are at risk of contracting the disease, due to their age or certain circumstances.
Arithmetic projections indicate that if 10% of them refuse vaccination, and if social distancing is abandoned, while the virus is still spreading at high levels, then there will be a huge rise in infections and deaths.
Note that vaccines for children have not yet been licensed.
Bitter experiences
Minority communities in many countries, which are most vulnerable to infection, have less confidence in their governments and medical institutions.
Even among some care workers, up to half of them refuse to be vaccinated, despite having had bitter experiences with the epidemic.
With the new strains, about 80% of the total population, on average, needs to be immune, in order for a person to transmit the disease to less than one contact, which is the threshold at which the epidemic recedes, and this will be a difficult task.
For all these reasons, governments need to start planning for "Covid-19" as an endemic disease.
And today they treat it as an emergency, it will end.
To see how these ways of thinking differ, it is worth noting New Zealand, which has sought to be free of the virus, by closing its doors to the world.
That way, it kept the number of recorded deaths down to just 25.
But such a cruel policy is meaningless as a permanent defense;
And New Zealand is not North Korea.
With the vaccination of vulnerable people in New Zealand, the latter will come under increasing pressure to open its borders;
And thus begin to bear endemic infections and deaths of the "Covid-19" virus.
Governments around the world will have to determine when and how to shift from emergency measures to policies that are economically and socially sustainable, and indefinitely, and the transition will be difficult.
And in China, where vaccination is slow, the Communist Party defined every case of the virus as unacceptable, and the widespread spread of the disease as a sign of the decline of Western democracies.
New reality
Adaptation and coexistence with the coronavirus begins with medical science.
Work has already begun to modify vaccines, to provide protection against mutations.
This should be accompanied by more monitoring of mutations spreading, and faster regulatory approval of boosters.
Meanwhile, treatments will be needed to save more of those who fall ill, from death or serious illness.
The best result will be a combination of acquired immunity, regular booster vaccines from modified vaccines, and a list of treatments to ensure that the "Covid-19" disease is not life threatening.
But this result is not guaranteed.
While medicine alone cannot prevent the spread of an epidemic, the burden also falls on human behavior, just as it did in most cases of the epidemic.
But instead of months-long national and school closures, which come with a heavy price, the responsibility should fall more on individuals.
Habits such as wearing a mask may become part of everyday life.
Vaccine passports, and restrictions in crowded places, can become mandatory.
And vulnerable people will have to maintain great vigilance.
And those who refuse to be vaccinated can expect health education and encouragement, with limited protection against the epidemic.
And when it comes to travel, it will be difficult to resist people's desire to live their lives, even in regimes like China, which may not tolerate anything at all.
Even if the virus is not completely eliminated, the situation is much better than it could have been, thanks to medical science.
Outside the rich world, 85% of countries have not yet started their vaccination programs. Billions of people may not get their doses before 2023, and they will continue to fuel the virus.
- Although the vaccines did not prevent mild and asymptomatic cases of "Covid-19", they most often prevented deaths and more severe infections, which required hospitalization, which is what really matters. Early evidence suggests that some vaccines also stop the virus from spreading.
Describing the vaccination as a miracle is not an exaggeration. A little more than a year after the virus was first discovered, health workers have given 148 million doses in various countries of the world. And in Israel, which is considered the world champion in vaccination, hospitalization for those under the age of 60 who have not received a dose of the vaccine is higher than ever. In contrast, among those over the age of 60 who have been largely vaccinated, they are already almost 40% lower, compared to the mid-January peak, and the number will drop further.
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