(Economic Observation) "Farms of cattle and sheep" Can Chinese food supply worry-free?

  China News Service, Beijing, February 17th, title: "Farms of cattle and sheep" Can Chinese food supply worry-free?

  China News Agency reporter Chen Su

  The people regard food as their heaven.

In the past Lunar New Year of the Rat, Chinese pork, corn, vegetables and other agricultural products have experienced a wave of "price increases."

Will the price of agricultural products continue to rise when the new lunar new year arrives?

Is the Chinese "rice bowl" and "table" guaranteed?

  "Stable rice bowl"

  Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic and other agricultural disasters, the global "rice bowl" is facing severe challenges.

The United Nations has warned that the world may face the worst food crisis in 50 years, and that there will be about 83 million hungry people in 2020.

International food prices have also continued to rise. In January 2021, global food prices rose for the eighth consecutive month, setting a new high since July 2014.

  At the same time, China has achieved a bumper harvest of grain. The total grain output in 2020 is 1,339 billion catties, an increase of 11.3 billion catties over the previous year, and has remained above 1.3 trillion catties for six consecutive years. Grain production has achieved "17 consecutive harvests."

  Ensuring stable grain production and ration security has always been the top priority in China's various tasks. China's “self-sufficiency” in grain rations has been achieved for many years, and the Chinese people no longer need to worry about “not enough to eat”.

  The plan for a year lies in the spring. After the Spring Festival, it means that farming is in full swing.

Before the Spring Festival, China had arranged arrangements for the preparation of spring ploughing.

In early February, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China held a national video conference on spring field management and spring plowing preparation work, and proposed that in 2021, it is necessary to stabilize the good situation of food production and ensure the effective supply of important agricultural products. The agricultural and rural system must issue a "military order" to ensure that food production is stable. More than 1.3 trillion catties, and strive for stability and growth.

  It is foreseeable that the Chinese "granary" in the Year of the Ox will continue to fill up, and the Chinese "rice bowl" will continue to be firmly secured.

  "There is meat to eat"

  With the upgrading of China's food consumption structure, residents' demand for meat continues to increase.

Since 2019, African swine fever has caused a significant drop in pork production capacity in China, and pork prices have continued to rise. Although production capacity has recovered and prices have fallen during the period, pork prices have risen again as the festival approaches at the end of 2020, and exceed the same period last year.

  Can people eat cheap pork in 2021?

Wang Zuli, an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and chief expert on the monitoring and early warning of the pig industry of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that since 2020, driven by the market and policies, the recovery of pig production has continued to accelerate. By the end of 2020, pig production capacity has been basically Return to normal levels.

Especially in recent months, the slaughter volume of live pigs has increased sharply month by month, indicating that the previous production capacity recovery has resulted in the release of pork production to the market, and the production has begun to materialize.

  In order to ensure the supply of "meat on the table", China has recently increased the distribution of central reserve meat. In January 2021, 4 batches of 110,000 tons have been put in. The official said that it will continue to put in reserve meat in the later period.

  After New Year's Day in 2021, the price of live pigs in China has shown a significant downward trend, and the price of pork has also begun to loosen. The wholesale price has dropped from a high of 47.64 yuan (RMB, the same below) per kilogram in January to 45.04 yuan on February 8.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that the number of live pigs for slaughter from January to February this year will increase by about 25% over the same period of the previous year. There is still room for pork prices to fall in the later period.

  In addition, the production of poultry, cattle and sheep in 2020 is in a good situation. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of poultry and eggs in 2020 will increase by 4.8%, poultry meat will increase by 5.5%, beef will increase by 0.8%, mutton will increase by 1%, and milk will increase by 7.5%. Guaranteed.

  "Sufficient dishes"

  On the eve of the Spring Festival, a round of vegetable price hikes aroused social concern.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of 19 kinds of vegetables in the wholesale markets of 286 production and sales areas nationwide has risen from 3.62 yuan/kg at the end of November 2020 for 10 consecutive weeks to January 22, 2021-January 29, 2021. The average price reached 5.61 yuan/kg, and the price of a variety of vegetables increased by more than 50% year-on-year.

  Experts pointed out that the increase in vegetable prices in the early period was mainly caused by seasonal factors during holidays and production cyclical factors. As the holiday factors subsided and the supply of vegetables in the later period increased, the room for vegetable prices to rise would be very limited.

  According to the dispatch of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the sown area of ​​vegetables and the average monthly market volume increase steadily this year, and the market supply is sufficient.

The planting area of ​​winter and spring vegetables in China is 85 million mu, an increase of 1 million mu compared to the same period last year. The planting area of ​​large vegetables such as Chinese cabbage, cucumber, tomato, eggplant and cowpea has increased, and the field is growing well.

In the next month, the market volume of vegetables will reach 48 million tons, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year, and the 17 major producing provinces will market 43 million tons of vegetables in the next month, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year.

  At the same time, China has also intensified its efforts to transfer vegetables from the main producing provinces to ensure the supply of "vegetable baskets".

  One week before the Spring Festival, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, vegetable prices have fallen slightly.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that it will strengthen production guidance, focus on ensuring the supply and demand of bulk varieties, stabilize the vegetable area, tighten the "vegetable basket" mayor responsibility system, supervise and urge the "vegetable basket" to ensure supply and price stabilization, and strengthen the connection between production and sales to ensure Vegetables from the producing area are not overstocked and shipped out, and the vegetables in the sales area can be supplied and kept on file.