Paris (AFP)

The unemployment rate fell sharply at the end of the year, apparently returning to its pre-crisis level, but this drop is "partly a sham" according to INSEE due to a bias statistics and the still massive use of partial activity.

In the fourth quarter, the number of unemployed as defined by the ILO reached 2.4 million people in France (excluding Mayotte), down by 340,000 people.

Over the quarter, the rate fell by 1.1 points, to 8% of the working population, after a rebound of 2 points the previous quarter.

It is almost stable (‒0.1 point) compared to the end of 2019.

But "this decrease is partly + in trompe-l'oeil +: due to the second confinement, between October 30 and December 15, a significant number of people have switched to inactivity, notably for lack of being able to carry out active research employment under the usual conditions, ”explains INSEE.

To be unemployed within the meaning of the International Labor Office (ILO), it is indeed necessary to have carried out a job search process during the last four weeks and to declare oneself available within two weeks to take up a job.

"These two behaviors, availability and research, were more or less affected by the limitations of the movement of people and by the perception that the latter had of the possibilities offered on the labor market", underlines the institute.

The participation rate thus fell by 0.2 point over the quarter.

Among 15-24 year olds, it fell by 0.9 points, a sign that a certain number preferred to continue their studies or give up looking for work at the start of the school year.

The same statistical effect had occurred in the second quarter but in a much stronger way, the unemployment rate then having fallen to 7.1%.

The difference is explained by the fact that the second confinement had a much less strong impact on employment.

The drop in unemployment is also due to the rise in the employment rate, which continued to recover (+0.6 point) even though it was down 0.4 point over one year.

According to Sylvain Larrieu, head of the synthesis and conjuncture division of the labor market at INSEE, these figures confirm the "good surprise" of salaried employment which fell only 0.2% in the last quarter.

- Support for partial unemployment -

For Éric Heyer, director of the analysis and forecasting department at the French Observatory of Economic Conjunctures, "these figures are still good compared to what we expected two or three months ago, the recession is less marked so it there is less job destruction ".

Another encouraging news is that the proportion of young people aged 15 to 29 who are neither in employment nor in training fell over the quarter by 0.5 point, to 13.2%, even though it was still 0.5 point higher than its pre-crisis level.

"Among young people, thanks to aid, we have enabled the recruitment of 1.2 million young people on fixed-term contracts of more than 3 months or on permanent contracts between August and December, almost as many as in 2018 and 2019", welcomed Tuesday Élisabeth Borne on BFM Business.

If the Minister of Labor said she was aware of the "trompe-l'oeil effect", she judged "that with the emergency measures and the recovery plan we have succeeded in containing the impact of the crisis on employment ".

But for Mr. Heyer, it is above all partial unemployment (2.4 million employees in December) which always explains that "unemployment is not increasing".

This is seen in particular in the statistics of INSEE by an increase of one million in the number of people "underemployed" in one year.

Ms. Borne announced the extension of the current care (100% in the most affected areas, 85% elsewhere) until the end of March.

For Mr. Heyer, the evolution of this support will determine that of unemployment in 2021. "If the government reduces it, it is possible that some companies say that it costs them too much and are laying off workers. The expected rebound in growth , from 4 to 6%, would then paradoxically result in a sharp rise in unemployment, ”he explains.

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