Corona pandemic: Unfortunately, Kretschmer is right with his Easter holiday warning

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Michael Kretschmer is right - Easter holidays in Germany can now be too risky.

At least as long as little is known about the new Corona mutants.

Are They More Contagious?

Do you also meet younger people?

Do the vaccines work against them or not?

Exactly at the point in time at which these mutants can begin to determine the infection picture - from the end of February, beginning of March - many counties will reach the incidence number 35.

If the mutants are more dangerous than the previous virus, the 35 digit would also be useless.

Because of the mutants, the intensive care units could soon be full again.

Nobody can raise the number of intensive care beds at the push of a button with a lot of money.

The technology may perhaps be more readily available in the short term, but the state cannot simply instruct the necessary specialist staff to be available.

Working in intensive care units requires thorough training and a lot of experience.

That takes years.

Nothing works on command.

This bottleneck is the reason for the lockdown.

The problem for society as a whole is: maybe we will know more about the mutants by early March, but maybe not.

Perhaps by then it is only clear that the vaccines against them will only be effective if they are tested intensively for a few more weeks.

What that can mean is obvious.

At the beginning of March, the top round of prime ministers with Merkel could further lower the incidence number 35 in order to gain time for clarity with a longer lockdown, time for the vaccination laboratories and manufacturers.

That is why it is right if politicians like Kretschmer prefer to pour water into the wine now instead of only then surprising people.

Germany finally wants to get out of the lockdown and hopes its end is within reach.

If politicians do not extend it until 35 is reached, the disappointment would be bottomless.

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The alternative to lockdown with its brutal effects is a path such as in Rostock - self-discipline of the people, combined with location-dependent isolation of the city limits and precise contact tracking.

This can work at the local level.

But on national?

A lockdown minimizes the risk of having to reveal private contacts.

The discussion about a state that in the middle of normal life is forcing the disclosure of private contacts and movement profiles again because a new virus threatens is pending.

But you can imagine how it went.