Trump couldn't handle it (2 of 2)

10 files of hot conflicts in the world await the new US administration

  • The Biden administration will continue to have trouble dealing with Russian power and expansion elsewhere in the world.

    Archives

  • Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (second from right) during a meeting at the Presidential Palace.

    A.F.B.

  • The opportunity may now be available to reach a peace settlement in Yemen.

    Archives

  • Forces loyal to the legitimate Yemeni government.

    EPA

  • A group of eastern Libyan forces in Ain Zara.

    Reuters

  • Faced with Azerbaijani firepower, Armenia was forced to give up the territories it had held for a quarter of a century.

    EPA

picture

The new year is likely to suffer from old legacies that were not resolved during the era of former US President Donald Trump, such as the problem of "Covid-19", economic recession, volatile US policies, and devastating wars that were not stopped by diplomacy.

It has been an eventful year, from the coronavirus pandemic, through the increasing impact of climate change, to the scorched-earth policies pursued by the Trump administration after Democratic candidate Joe Biden won the presidency, the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorny Karabakh, and the bloody conflict in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. , And the conflict in Yemen.

And in 2021, the world will be busy dealing with the repercussions of these events and removing rubble from the stage.

In the second and final episode of this study, we review the other five remaining files.

Russia and Turkey

Russia and Turkey are not at war, but they are often in a state of cooperation. Nevertheless, these two countries often support each other’s opponents, as is the case in Syria and Libya, or compete for influence, as is the case in the Caucasus.

They often see each other as partners and cooperate even when local allies fight.

However, as Turkey's downing of a Russian plane in 2015 near the Turkish-Syrian border shows, and dozens of Turkish soldiers killed in air strikes by Russian-backed Syrian forces in 2020, the risk of unexpected confrontations is high.

While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, have so far proven their ingenuity in managing such unfortunate incidents, any disagreement may exacerbate the conflicts in which both are involved.

The contradictions in relations between Ankara and Moscow are most evident in Syria.

Turkey was among the fiercest foreign opponents of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, and a strong supporter of the opposition.

Meanwhile, Russia threw its weight behind Assad and intervened in 2015 to decisively turn the war in his favor.

Since then, Turkey has abandoned the ouster of Assad and became more interested in fighting the People's Protection Units (YPG), the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has waged an insurgency against Turkey for nearly four decades, and which both Ankara (and the United States and Europe) consider a terrorist organization.

The March 2020 agreement, which brought Moscow and Ankara together, stopped the last round of fighting in Idlib, the last remaining pocket of the opposition in northwestern Syria, and demonstrated the extent to which the two powers needed each other.

Russia expects Turkey to implement the ceasefire in Idlib.

Ankara realizes that another attack of the regime could push hundreds of thousands of Syrians to migrate to Turkey, depending on the Russian air support, which gives Moscow effective control over such an operation.

But the status quo is fragile, the Syrian war is not over yet, and another Russian-backed offensive in Idlib is still possible.

In Libya, too, Russia and Turkey support two opposing parties.

But it is not at all clear whether the agreement can guarantee to Turkey the commitment of the friendly Libyan rulers, to give it what it wants, at a time when it might give Russia a foothold in the country.

Russia and Turkey were also involved in the recent war over Nagorno Karabakh.

Russia allied militarily with Armenia, but avoided taking sides, and ultimately brokered the ceasefire that ended the fighting.

Turkey provided diplomatic and military support to Azerbaijan, with Turkish (and Israeli) drones helping suppress Armenian air defenses.

Despite their rivalry in the South Caucasus, this time Moscow and Ankara won, and Russia deployed peacekeepers and greatly increased its influence in the region.

Turkey can claim that it played an important role in Azerbaijan's victory, and will benefit from the trade corridor established by the ceasefire agreement.

Venezuela

Nearly two years have passed since the Venezuelan opposition, the United States and countries across Latin America and Europe recognized legislator Juan Guaidó as the interim president of Venezuela, and these parties predicted the end of the current president, Nicolas Maduro.

Today, these hopes are in dire straits.

The US-led "maximum pressure" campaign - which involves sanctions, international isolation, implicit threats of military action, and even a failed coup - could not topple Maduro.

On the contrary, these measures made him stronger than he had been before, as the Allies, including the army, rallied behind him, fearing that his fall would endanger them.

The living conditions of Venezuelans, devastated by government impotence, US sanctions, and "Covid-19", have reached rock bottom.

If Maduro remains in office, his opponents may see their political fortunes collapsing.

Guaidó’s claim to the presidency rests on the parliamentary majority won by opposition parties in 2015, along with the argument that Maduro's re-election in May 2018 was false.

Now the opposition is weak and divided, and hardly finds a foothold in the National Assembly.

The government won the legislative elections in December, which were boycotted by all the small opposition parties, by an overwhelming majority.

To whom

The Yemen war has caused what the United Nations considers the world's worst humanitarian disaster.

Covid-19 has exacerbated the suffering of civilians who are already haunted by poverty, hunger, and other diseases.

Senior humanitarian officials again warn of famine.

A year ago, there was a window of opportunity to end the war, but it was squandered by the warring parties.

The Houthis were talking through back channels with Saudi Arabia, the main external sponsor of the Yemeni government recognized by the United Nations, led by President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi.

The Saudis were also mediating between the anti-Houthi factions that have been fighting over the status of Aden, which is the interim capital of the government and has been controlled by the Southern Transitional Council since August 2019. These two negotiating tracks could be the building blocks of a political process brokered by the United Nations.

Instead, the fighting escalated, particularly in Marib, the Hadi government's last urban stronghold in the north.

It took a year of negotiations before the anti-Houthi factions agreed on how to distribute security responsibilities in the south, remove their forces from the front lines, and form a new government.

It is likely that negotiations will face more obstacles regarding the transfer of the government to Aden, and the United Nations' peacemaking efforts have encountered some obstacles.

Both the Houthis and the Hadi government have reasons to procrastinate.

If they were to win in Marib, then the Houthis would have occupied the north and took control of the oil, gas and power station in the governorate, allowing them to generate electricity and obtain the revenues they desperately need.

The government cannot afford to lose Marib, but it holds another hope: The Biden administration’s decision to revoke the Trump administration’s designation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization could create new opportunities for a solution and reduce the risk of famine, as it imports 90 percent of its wheat and all its rice.

It could also revive the UN's mediation efforts.

The United Nations should expand its framework of work to include other parties, especially the Southern Transitional Council, as well as members of tribes in the north, who could help reach any settlement.

Rather than pursuing a deal between two parties, the United Nations should begin planning a more inclusive process that would encourage dealmaking between the major players.

Libya

Competing military coalitions in Libya are no longer fighting, and the United Nations has resumed negotiations aimed at reunifying the country.

The international organization was able to convince the various parties to sign a peace agreement in Geneva, and to agree on the members of the three presidencies on a temporary basis until elections are held that include all Libyan lands, by next October.

But achieving lasting peace will remain an uphill struggle.

On 23 October, the Libyan National Army and the Government of National Accord signed a formal ceasefire to end the battles that have been raging in the outskirts of Tripoli and elsewhere since April 2019, as the fighting has killed nearly 3,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands.

Progress in reunifying the divided country has stalled since 2014.

The UN talks in November brought together 75 Libyans tasked with agreeing on an interim unity government and a roadmap for elections.

But the talks were marred by controversy over how the UN chose these delegates, their legal authority, infighting, and allegations of attempted bribery.

The participants agreed to hold elections at the end of 2021.

Corona Virus"

When the epidemic first broke out, many feared it would have immediate and devastating consequences in developing countries, especially those facing deadly conflicts.

Although many low-income countries were hit hard, many were not.

The virus has severely affected diplomatic activity, international mediation, peace-keeping missions and financial support for vulnerable groups of the population, but it is doubtful whether "Covid-19" has significantly affected the course of major wars, whether in Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen or Anywhere else in the world.

The long-term implications are a different matter. The pandemic has triggered a global economic crisis unprecedented since World War II, and pushed an additional 150 million people below the extreme poverty line.

Although income levels are not directly related to conflict, there is a possibility that violence will occur during periods of economic volatility.

In Sudan, Lebanon, and Venezuela, to name a few, one can expect the number of unemployed to increase, real income collapses, governments face increasing difficulties in paying security forces salaries, and the general population increasingly relying on state support at a time when states are less prepared. To provide.

The lines between economic dissatisfaction and social unrest at the outbreak of violence are very thin.

Nor is it likely that the United States, Europe, or other donors will allocate the required amount of high-level and sustained attention or resources to distant regional conflicts, because they themselves face economic, social and political chaos at home.


"Climate change" affects conflicts

"Climate change" is not a new phenomenon, but it is an accelerating one, with an increasingly noticeable impact in conflicts.

It is true that the causal chain is twisted, and political responses to extreme weather patterns often play a larger role than the climate patterns themselves.

With more frequent heat waves and intense rains, many governments are facing greater pressure to deal with food insecurity, water scarcity, migration and competition for resources.

It is the first year that transnational risks have entered the list of conflicts, as climate-related violence spreads from the Sahel to Nigeria and Central America.

Meanwhile, the United States - polarized, experiencing growing distrust in its institutions, heavily armed, and torn by deep social and ethnic divisions - is approaching an unmanageable political crisis more than at any time in its recent history. Former President Donald Trump challenges the legitimacy of the election and his successor in his final weeks in office.

To inflame the field for the man who would replace him, Trump imposed a series of sanctions on Iran with the almost hidden aim of impeding Biden's efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal.

He ordered a series of last-minute US military withdrawals from Somalia, Afghanistan and Iraq.

By acting quickly and without coordination or consultation with key local stakeholders, he has been able to inflict a bad reputation on American politics, and he has done it all in a way that creates obstacles for the next president and narrows his room for maneuver.

Hope

Biden's election brought hope that some of the damage his predecessor had caused could be repaired.

But the new team may find before it a mountain of unexpected problems that cannot be dealt with easily.

By bullying traditional allies and tearing up international agreements, Trump believed he could show his strength, but was in fact showing his country's unreliability.

To the extent that Biden finds himself compelled to negotiate anew with Iran, and perhaps North Korea, or to encourage a settlement in Yemen or Venezuela, or alternatively to relapse into a less effective role in the Middle East, and the memories of the man who came before him will haunt him.

The legacy Trump left in the final days of 2020 may be the most dangerous.

The last months of the year seriously affected the old saying of diplomats and peacemakers: There is no military solution to the political conflict.

This is reflected in the case of Armenia and Azerbaijan, in which, in the face of the superior Azerbaijani firepower, the Armenians were forced to give up the territories they had controlled for a quarter of a century;

And the Tigrayan Liberation Front in Ethiopia, which promised a protracted resistance against the advance of federal forces, but was defeated within days.

• “Climate change” is not a new phenomenon, but it is an accelerating one, with an increasingly noticeable impact in conflicts.

• Coronavirus has severely affected diplomatic activity, international mediation, peacekeeping missions and financial support for vulnerable groups of the population, but it is doubtful whether "Covid-19" has significantly affected the course of major wars, whether in Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, or Yemen or any other place in the world.

• Russia and Turkey are not at war, but they are often in a state of cooperation. Nevertheless, these two countries often support each other’s opponents, as is the case in Syria and Libya, or compete for influence, as is the case in the Caucasus.

They often see each other as partners and cooperate even when local allies fight.

• If the Houthis prevail in Marib, they will control the oil, gas and power station in the governorate, allowing them to generate electricity and obtain the revenues they desperately need.

Follow our latest local and sports news, and the latest political and economic developments via Google news