Between the denial and the assertion, official Egyptian statements contradicted the repercussions and effects of the Eilat Ashkelon pipeline project (Emirati-Israeli) on the competitiveness of the Suez Canal in the international shipping traffic.

While the General Authority of the Canal denied the impact of the Ashkelon Line project, the head of the authority, Osama Rabie, warned on more than one occasion of the repercussions of the launch of any parallel project for maritime transport on Egyptian national security, and Rabie affirmed that the project would affect the number of ships crossing the canal by a rate ranging between 12 to 16%. But it will not affect container transit.

Rabie also previously warned that the Emirati-Israeli project may pose a threat to ships passing through the canal's shipping course by up to 16%.

In contrast to the political, security and national repercussions of the Israeli normalization projects, there are warnings issued by officials and experts about the danger of Tel Aviv becoming a major player in the Arab oil market, especially with its transformation into a market from which Egypt buys gas from exploration areas in the Mediterranean Sea, which basically followed Egyptian sovereignty.

From Suez to "Eilat-Ashkelon"

In the last quarter of last year, Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv signed an agreement aimed at transporting Gulf oil to Europe, via a pipeline linking the ports of Eilat on the Red Sea and Ashkelon on the Mediterranean, most of which currently passes through the Suez Canal.

The line was established by Israel in the 1960s to transport Iranian oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, after Egypt restricted passage through the Suez Canal following the tripartite aggression (France, Israel and Britain in 1956), to ensure energy supplies.

According to the American Foreign Policy magazine, trade traffic in the Suez Canal is expected to decrease by more than 17% under the Emirati-Israeli agreement.

Egypt could have stood in the way of these projects, had it not given up on the sovereignty of the islands of Tiran and Sanafir in favor of Saudi Arabia, which control the entrance to the Gulf of Aqaba and the ports of Aqaba in Jordan and Eilat in Israel, and they are located on an extension of strategic importance and represent the path of Israel to enter the Red Sea.

The Egyptian academic Muhammad Hafez, a professor of dams and ports engineering, warned that the Eilat Ashkelon oil pipeline would kill the Egyptian Sumed Line (it carries Gulf oil from the Red Sea port of Ain Sukhna to the port of Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean), which is the first line to transport Gulf oil to Europe in the Middle East.

Hafez expected that the line would double before 2025 to be able to transport all Gulf oil, explaining that the Gulf Ashkelon line would be able to transport about 2.5 million barrels per day, while the Egyptian Sumed pipeline would not exceed 1.2 million barrels per day.

Tabline line

The Emirati-Israeli project is not the only one that has "potential and realistic" negative impacts and repercussions on Egypt's vital artery, as one of the potential negative repercussions also resulting from Gulf normalization with Israel on the Suez Canal and Egyptian national security is the revival of the Tabline line (the world's longest oil transport).

The Tapline line extends from the Gulf coast of Saudi Arabia to the Mediterranean, and has been stopped since Israel occupied the Syrian Golan Heights in 1967.

Cape of Good Hope

At the height of the big drop in oil prices last year, the repercussions of the Corona virus on the global economy negatively affected the Suez Canal, as major shipping companies changed their course to the Cape of Good Hope, which revolves around Africa instead of the Suez Canal.

Last May, a study conducted by Alphaliner, a company specialized in marine navigation and ship transit, revealed that the number of containers that chose to use the Cape of Good Hope and bypass the Suez Canal had risen to the highest historical level in peacetime, including That included at least 20 flights to and from Asia, Europe and North America.

Some ships chose to consume more cheap fuel on longer voyages, rather than pay hefty fees to cross the Suez Canal.

Northwest Passage

It is a corridor that China launched in 2016 that passes through the North Pole to Europe, and it is hundreds of miles shorter than the Suez Canal.

And the use of the Polar Corridor would save time and money for Chinese shipping companies. For example, the cruise from Shanghai to the German port of Hamburg via the Northwest Passage would be 2,800 nautical miles shorter than the route through the Suez Canal.

On the other hand, Othman Amkour, a Moroccan researcher in international relations and a specialist in Chinese affairs, said that the Chinese projects in the northwest corridor fall within the big project of "the Belt and Road Initiative", and the Suez Canal is a central part of the water sector.

In statements to Al-Jazeera Net, Amkor explained that Chinese interests intersect with its "Emirati-Israeli" counterpart, which targets the Egyptian waterway.

He pointed out that the Egyptian regime sought to benefit from trade relations with China, while Beijing targeted Egypt through an investment plan worth hundreds of millions of dollars, but in light of the Gulf competition, it was unable to pass all of its projects with Egypt.

Red Med streak

What shows the importance of the Suez Canal with its new branch to China, according to Amkor, is its suspension of the "Red-Med" project, due to Egypt's protest against the project, which may harm the value of the Suez Canal and negatively affect the Egyptian economy.

The "Red-Med" project, years ago, was aiming to establish a railway shipping line linking Eilat on the Red Sea to the port of Ashdod (Ashdod) on the Mediterranean with a length of 300 km, as an alternative to the Suez Canal.

Since China wanted to participate in the new Suez Canal project in Egypt, it could not antagonize the Egyptian side with the "Red-Mediterranean" plans, according to Amcore.

Panama Canal

This canal is a mandatory crossing for 5% of global maritime trade, and the two main countries that use it are the United States and China.

And in 2016, the state of Panama expanded its channel in order to stimulate and attract shipping companies that use the Suez Canal, especially as it is a major crossing for the United States and China.

But the Moroccan researcher, Amkour, confirmed that it does not affect the Suez Canal, by virtue of the fact that the China project linked to the Suez Canal mainly targets the European market and not the American market, which is a pivotal market for China, and it is not affected much by the trade war between the United States and China.

East Med

It is one of the projects that threatens Egyptian ambitions to turn into a regional energy platform, and East MED launched Israel, Greece, Cyprus and Italy in early 2020, in a clear disregard for the alliance with Egypt.

The agreement aims to extend the "Eastern Mediterranean" pipeline to transport natural gas from the eastern Mediterranean to Europe. Prior to its inauguration, Egypt launched an initiative to establish an "Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum", based in Cairo, with the participation of the four countries, along with Jordan and Palestine.