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SPD health politician Karl Lauterbach warns of too much optimism ahead of the federal-state conference on the corona situation on Wednesday.

Lauterbach wrote on the news service Twitter that it would be an "extremely difficult" decision.

The population expects easing because the number of cases is falling.

"Epidemiologically, we would even have to tighten it because the third wave threatens with the turbo virus," wrote Lauterbach.

The SPD man referred to analyzes according to which the falling number of cases was deceptive because the new, more contagious virus mutant B 1.1.7 was spreading more and more.

Most recently, virologist Melanie Brinkmann warned in “Spiegel” that these mutations would “overrun us”.

Lauterbach wrote on Twitter: “In my own calculations I come to similar results.

I am assuming a growth rate of + 35% / week today, which corresponds to an increased R value of around 40%.

Then we would have around 20% B117 / B1351 today.

The number of cases will then decrease until the end of February, then the 3rd wave. "

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Lauterbach called for "courage and transparency".

The worst solution is to wait until the third wave arrives.

The lost time cannot be made up.

Kekulé does not want to overestimate mutation

Virologist Alexander Kekulé, on the other hand, said in an interview with WELT that he does not believe that the mutation alone is responsible for a changed dynamic.

"For politicians it is easier to say: It wasn't me, it was the mutant," said Kekulé.

The typical argument is then: “The devastating numbers have nothing to do with my corona management, that was the third wave, the pandemic within the pandemic.

For me, roughly speaking, 90 percent of these outbreaks can be explained by poor corona management and ten percent by the new variants. "

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According to the expert, the new variants could only spread "if there is an open flank in the defense concept".

Kekulé said: "Wherever they spread, the protective measures had always been relaxed shortly before."

New variant in home in Lower Saxony

The last variant B 1.1.7 occurred in nursing home residents who had already been vaccinated in the Osnabrück district.

However, none of the sufferers showed severe symptoms.

We are also in good spirits that it will stay that way, said managing director Tim Rotthaus.

“Of course, I cannot look into the future.” Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn (CDU) wants to have the case examined.

The facility in the Osnabrück district has 100 places.

None of the approximately 160 employees tested positive for the virus variant.

Nevertheless, everyone is in so-called family or work quarantine, which they are only allowed to leave for the way to work.

For the Secretary General of the German Society for Immunology, Carsten Watzl, the case is "not worrying, but shows that the vaccination is working".

Since there have been no severe courses in the home so far, it can be assumed that the vaccinated were not defenseless against the virus.