Ecuadorians go to the polls amid economic and health slump
A resident of Cuenca, Ecuador, February 6, 2021. AFP - CRISTINA VEGA RHOR
Text by: RFI Follow
5 mins
This Sunday, 13 million voters are called to choose their next president.
The return of supporters of the left-wing ex-president Rafael Correa is the main unknown in the poll, in a context of economic and health crisis.
Ecuador was particularly affected by the first wave of the Covid epidemic.
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With our special correspondent in Quito,
Raphaël Morán
Equipped with his plumber's tools, Jorge Rivera jumps up.
This 60-year-old has been waiting for several hours near Radio Cristal, an FM station in Guayaquil that broadcasts announcements for minor jobs.
The radio headquarters have become the meeting place for self-employed workers like Jorge who offer their arms to fix pipes or wash clothes.
But in the last ten days, Jorge has only earned $ 150, for two days of work.
Behind his black mask, he begins a diatribe against the government of Lenin Moreno, elected with the support of the left, but which made a neoliberal turn during his mandate.
Jorge, like many modest Ecuadorians, is nostalgic for Rafael Correa
, the former left-wing president, whose terms have left a memory of economic growth and redistribution of oil rent.
“
Before, there was work for everyone.
Teachers and doctors were paid.
Public sector employees, with their wages, gave us work,
”Jorge recalls.
“
There is no more work and the pandemic has made things worse
,” adds the worker.
Jorge Rivera is nostalgic for Rafael Correa.
© Raphael Moran / RFI
3.2 million more poor
If we do not know the exact number of deaths from Covid-19 in Ecuador, we know that at the worst hours of the epidemic, mortality has doubled compared to an ordinary month.
And the quarantine has worsened the economic situation of the small South American country already weakened by falling oil prices.
The next president of Ecuador will therefore take the reins of a highly indebted and impoverished country: 3.2 million people fell into poverty in 2020, according to figures from the Economic Commission for Latin America (CEPAL).
And Ecuador's GDP is expected to fall by 10% in 2020, before rebounding by around 3% in 2021.
To deal with this situation, the outgoing government of Lenin Moreno signed a series of loans from the International Monetary Fund.
The drastic reduction in public spending of four billion dollars, the dismissal of hundreds of professors and doctors, the flexibilisation of labor law have been implemented despite the health crisis.
Three men, three programs
On the eve of the elections, the three leading candidates according to the most recent polls agree on the necessary reactivation of the economy.
But the proposed method differs from one candidate to another.
Unknown to the general public, economist Andrés Arauz (35) campaigned by promising a return to the redistribution policies of his mentor Rafael Correa, president from 2007 to 2017. One of his flagship measures is immediate aid of 1000 dollars for a million poor families.
A measure described as "
populist
" by his opponents and a number of commentators often won over to the right-wing candidate Guillermo Lasso.
This 65-year-old multimillionaire banker is running for the presidential election for the third time with a neoliberal-inspired program.
“
If we look at Guillermo Lasso's program, we find measures such as the relaxation of labor law for young people, tax cuts and the creation of free zones, that is to say the transformation of Ecuador in a tax haven,
”observes Keynesian-sensitive economist Jonathan Baez, interviewed by RFI in Quito.
Conversely, Andrés Arauz "
proposes to save families and not banks, and to maintain the tax on currency outflows so that dollars remain in Ecuador
", adds the economist who considers that the budget cuts program of outgoing government has contracted the demand.
Jonathan Baez, economist.
© Raphael Moran / RFI
Finally, the one who could be the third man, Yaku Pérez, from the Indian Pachakutik movement, campaigned on left-wing environmental proposals.
He slams “
extractivism
” in the name of respect for “
mother earth
”.
He is fiercely opposed to the return of former President Correa, still in exile in Belgium after a conviction for corruption.
However, opponents of “correism” still seem to be in the minority at the polls.
The abstention due to the pandemic - despite the compulsory nature of the vote - and the scale of the blank vote, however, make the polls uncertain.
► Read also:
Presidential elections in Ecuador: a referendum on Correa?
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Ecuador
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Rafael Correa