Unexpectedly, Turkish-American relations slipped into a tortuous turn despite the two parties ’desire to search for ways to preserve the broad and intertwining interests between them.
Less than two weeks after the inauguration of President Joe Biden, the two sides exchanged public criticism and negative statements.
Even so, Turkish Interior Minister Suleiman Soylu accused Washington of being behind the failed coup attempt in 2016, for which Ankara blamed the US-based Islamist preacher, Fethullah Gulen.
The US State Department responded in a statement confirming that it had nothing to do with the failed attempt. The statement added that "these statements and other baseless and irresponsible allegations contradict Turkey's status as a NATO ally and strategic partner of the United States."
This comes amid an American recognition that Turkey occupies a major role in NATO and is a crucial partner for the US efforts in Iraq and Syria.
Washington Strategy
With Biden’s arrival at the White House, a number of US foreign policy experts expected Turkey to be one of the most difficult files for the new president’s working team.
During its confirmation session in the Senate, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken indicated that further sanctions could be imposed on Turkey for its purchase of the S-400 air defense systems from Russia.
Washington imposed sanctions on Turkey on December 14, compounding the already strained relations between the two countries.
The long and detailed discussion of the outstanding issues between the two countries between the Turkish and American national security advisers a few days ago did not succeed in calming down the apparent tension in the relations of the two countries.
For his part, Michael Rubin, a former Defense Department official and currently a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, ruled out that the Biden administration had a "clear strategy toward Turkey at this early time in office," but pointed out that "Biden and his senior aides have them." Doubts about Turkish President Recep Erdogan and his pledges. "
Howard Eisenstadt, an expert on Turkish affairs with the Middle East Democracy Project, said that "the Biden administration is trying to make its policy towards Turkey move away from the personalization it knew during the rule of President Donald Trump," and that it is working to "return it to its institutional path that usually governs its important diplomatic relations."
In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Eisenstadt pointed out that, "At the same time, the Biden administration is fully aware that the relationship between the United States and Turkey is not going well; they are not optimistic about resetting it, they hope to cooperate on specific issues, and they know that lines should be laid." And clear about the issues that Washington will be tough on Turkey. "
The Biden administration realizes that the relationship between the United States and Turkey is not going well (Reuters)
human rights
Rubin explained that the issue of human rights in Turkey "will be one of the issues that the Biden administration will address, but it is only one among many problems. Democrats and Republicans alike agree on all the formidable challenges in the two countries' relations."
Eisenstadt did not rule out that the Biden administration would summon issues of freedoms and human rights in Turkey, but he believes that "they will be included in the political discourse and statements issued by Washington," and he does not believe that "human rights will be an important issue at the core of the relationship; Turkey's record in the field of human rights exacerbates tensions But it is not a major cause of the differences between the two countries. "
Russian S-400 Missile System (Reuters)
Relationships compass
A recent study issued by the Congressional Research Service, the research body that provides members of the House and Senate with detailed studies, found that Washington and Ankara could address the consequences of the S-400 missile issue, and determine the duration of sanctions imposed on Turkey under the CAATSA Act. It is the anti-enemies of America law with sanctions
The study indicated an analyst’s suggestion that the United States might delay imposing sanctions if Turkey publicly commits not to activate the S-400 missile system.
The study identified 4 factors that may affect the ongoing deliberations between the two countries, and that would create a new framework for the two countries' relations:
First:
Turkish internal developments, the impact of US sanctions on the Turkish economy, the defense industry, and the internal standing of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, especially with the expansion of the popularity of the S-400 missile deal among the Turkish elite, which Erdogan can exploit to increase his popularity by attributing internal challenges to Turkey To US sanctions.
Second:
Turkey's relations with Russia, as it seems that both countries are seeking to develop the increasing relations between them, which stems from their support for various parties in regional crises, whether in Syria, Libya, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Their cooperation in the defense and energy industries was also tools that Turkey could use as part of a compromise solution that saves the Russian missile deal.
Influence and files
Third:
General American influence on Turkish foreign policy, and how the sanctions related to the S-400 deal and the pending Halkbank case in a US federal court can affect Turkey's regional policies, including its confrontational approach with Washington's partners in the eastern Mediterranean .
Fourth: The
file of the F-35s (F-35). A question arises in the event of a compromise between the United States and Turkey regarding the S-400s. Will Congress consider amending its legislation banning F-35s to Turkey if it continues? In possession of S-400 missiles?
Turkey now presents Biden with an unsolvable policy problem.
Here are 3 recs for how he can handle it
1) plan around Turkey
2) coordinate with allies to counter Turkish provocations where necessary
3) leave the door open for cooperation where possiblehttps: //t.co/A43XHBEAEo
- Nicholas Danforth (@NicholasDanfort) February 5, 2021
At the same time, many voices are calling for Biden to adopt a tough stance with Turkey.
In a study released by the Brookings Institution, the researcher Nicholas Danvot, who specializes in Turkish affairs, noted that Turkey poses Biden an unresolvable problem.
He advised the new administration to work on developing a strategy that bypasses Turkey by coordinating with Washington's allies to confront what he called Turkish provocations when necessary, while leaving the door open for cooperation wherever possible.