China News Service, February 5 (Bian Lei) On February 3, local time, Russia and the United States announced that they would extend the treaty to 2026 before the only effective arms control treaty between the two parties, the "New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty", was about to expire. On February 5, 2010, the content of the treaty remained unchanged, which gave the international community a "reassurance."
Although the renewal of the contract between the two countries is not an opportunity to "break the ice" of the relationship, the United States, which finally renewed its contract, made its decision mainly based on its own actual interests rather than improving relations with Russia; but this is for both parties and the world. Said that it is a positive action to prevent a major country such as Russia from falling into an arms race crisis, thereby conducive to the peace of the international environment.
Data map: In March 2011, in Moscow, Russia, then US Vice President Biden shook hands with then Russian Prime Minister Putin.
Renew the previous contract,
Nuclear arms control treaty preserved
After the United States "retired" one after another, the "New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty" became the only effective major arms control treaty between Russia and the United States.
Nearly 11 years ago, the "New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty" was signed by the heads of Russia and the United States and entered into force on February 5, 2011, with a 10-year validity.
According to the treaty, the two countries must reduce their respective nuclear warheads to 1,550 and delivery vehicles to 800 after the treaty takes effect 7 years, of which no more than 700 nuclear warhead delivery vehicles have been deployed.
"Of course, this is still enough to destroy the world," the US "Foreign Policy" magazine pointed out, "but (the treaty) makes this easier to manage."
Jiang Yi, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out in an interview with Chinanews.com: "After the end of the Cold War, Russia and the United States vigorously promoted the reduction of strategic weapons in accordance with their own interests and changes in the international security situation." In the 30 years since the end of today, these treaties have played a more important role, and the two sides have also made more efforts.
Earlier, as the expiration date of this treaty approached, Russia had repeatedly proposed renewal, but the previous Trump administration responded negatively.
It was not until January 26, 2021, only 10 days before the treaty expired, that the newly appointed U.S. President Biden spoke with Russian President Putin and agreed to complete the necessary procedures for the renewal of the contract in the near future. On February 3, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying, The treaty extension agreement entered into force.
"For Russia and the United States, (the treaty) is an important area of limited cooperation." Li Dong, deputy director of the Eurasian Institute of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, pointed out that for the general environment, the renewal of the contract is important for maintaining world stability and Safety has a positive meaning.
Data map: In June 2020, Russia held a military parade on Red Square to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War.
The picture shows the RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile nicknamed "White Poplar-M" undergoing inspection.
"Agreement" reached at the last minute
Russia and the United States have their own considerations
In fact, it took less than two weeks from the time the Biden administration took the stage to express its stance for renewal to the successful renewal of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.
Li Dong pointed out that the "key ball" is on the American side.
After the Biden administration launched the extension proposal, Russia immediately put into action, which means that Russia intends to cooperate with the United States.
From the perspective of Russia, the renewal will not only help maintain its position in the field of international strategic stability and ease the confrontation with the United States, but also avoid being dragged into a costly arms race.
For the United States, Trump’s previous administration’s undecided attitude towards contract renewal was mainly due to its “polarization of the unilateral policy adopted by the United States after the end of the Cold War.” Jiang Yi said, “He I hope to maintain the so-called new military-industrial system that is realized according to the wishes of the United States. More importantly, it is necessary to highlight that the United States plays a leading role in the so-called new military-industrial system manipulated by the United States.” Of course, this has encountered a lot of diplomacy and politics. Resistance.
At the same time, the United States has also made an estimate of the modernization process of its nuclear forces, believing that renewing the contract is more in its own interests.
From the second half of 2020, the United States has undergone some changes in its attitude towards contract renewal.
By 2021, when Bi comes to power, the adjustment of US policy will be "natural."
In addition, the U.S. Democratic Party has always advocated further reductions in nuclear power.
As far as Biden is concerned, as the then Vice President in 2011, he actively promoted the Senate's adoption of the "New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty", and the renewal is also the inheritance of this diplomatic legacy.
After he took the stage, the renewal suspense was almost wiped out.
Data map: In May 2017, the US military conducted the first intercontinental ballistic missile interception test and it was successful.
Go further?
Can these treaties be "activated"?
On February 3, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs pointed out that Russia and the United States need to work hard to bring the two sides’ arms control dialogue back to a stable track; on the same day, US Secretary of State Blincol also stated that he would “seeking to reach an arms control agreement with Russia involving all Russian nuclear weapons”.
Some analysts believe that these statements may reveal more signals and present new challenges, that is, whether the "struggle" and decision-making between Russia and the United States in arms control will enter the next stage?
After the United States successively withdrew from the "Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty," "Intermediate-Range-Range Treaty," and "Open Skies Treaty" in recent years, the arms control system was destroyed.
The Russian-U.S. arms race seems to be about to start.
Li Dong analyzed that although the "New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty" was extended for about five years and opened room for the two parties to continue negotiations on the issue of nuclear weapons restrictions, "the withdrawal and abolition of the treaty is history and it is difficult to go back."
In Jiang Yi's view, the conditions for resuming the "Open Sky Treaty" that Russia and the United States have successively announced to suspend the implementation of the "Open Skies Treaty" may not be ripe.
The treaty was originally meant to reflect the mutual trust between Russia and the United States, but the relationship between the two countries has not changed significantly.
Despite Bi ascending to power, "bilateral relations are still frozen, and the hostility between the two countries remains."
As for the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, Jiang Yi said that the issues involved are more complex and specific.
In the short term, there is no sign that the United States will take positive steps.
Data map: In May 2020, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet flew with the US Navy P-8A anti-submarine Poseidon patrol aircraft.
In the next four years,
"Old rivals" will also face up...
Public opinion generally believes that the "bonus" of the contract renewal between Russia and the United States is only a drop in the bucket for improving bilateral relations.
"From the perspective of the United States, it still considers its own actual interests. It (renewal) is not regarded as an aid to improving Russia-US relations, but as safeguarding American interests and realizing the liberalization of American strategic forces. Jiang Yi pointed out that the development and thaw of Russia-US relations may still face a series of obstacles.
Specifically, first, the anti-Russian political foundation in the United States is very deep within the two parties; second, Biden and his administrative team have actually directly participated in Russia after 2014, including in the Obama administration. The process of the US's "bad exchange", including sanctions on Russia, cannot be changed in a short period of time. Finally, the two sides still have differences in views and positions on a series of international and regional issues.
"In the next four years, there will be no fundamental improvement in Russian-U.S. relations, nor will there be a fundamental change. From the perspectives of Russian officials, scholars, and people, none of them have high expectations for the improvement of relations between the two countries." Called.
On the 3rd, Brinken's statement seemed to confirm these views.
"We have engaged with Russia in ways that promote American interests, including seeking to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty for five years, as well as conducting broader discussions to reduce the possibility of crises and conflicts," said the new US Secretary of State. (But) we are still vigilant about the challenges Russia poses to the United States and the world." (End)