New Delhi (AFP)
With 1.3 billion inhabitants, India is the second country in the world most affected by Covid-19 with more than 10.7 million recorded cases, but the daily number of new infections and deaths continues to grow go back for months.
AFP details the South Asian giant's situation vis-à-vis the pandemic:
- What do the official figures reveal?
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India reported its first case of Covid-19 on January 30, 2020 and its first death in mid-March.
The number of new daily cases peaked at just over 97,000 infections in mid-September, according to figures from the Ministry of Health.
The country had some 1,000 deaths per day on average in September before seeing this figure decrease.
As of Tuesday, only 8,635 new infections and 94 deaths were recorded, the lowest level in eight months.
With 10.7 million infections recorded in total, and 155,000 deaths, India has a case fatality rate among the lowest of the 20 most affected nations.
In comparison, the United States, the first country in terms of number of cases and deaths, deplores more than 26 million contaminations and nearly 450,000 deaths.
According to the American Johns Hopkins University, India has only 11.43 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, the United States on the contrary has 136.55.
- Do the data reflect reality?
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According to experts based on various national serological studies, the number of people who have contracted the disease in India is probably much higher than official data reveals.
A national study carried out between December and January in urban and rural areas of the country found that about 21.5% of the population, or about 280 million people, carried antibodies.
A study published this week conducted in New Delhi, one of India's hardest hit cities, found that more than half of the 28,000 participants produced antibodies.
- What measures taken?
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Specialists feared the devastation of Covid-19 in densely populated Indian cities with poor hygiene conditions.
The chronically flawed and underfunded healthcare system also raised fears of the worst.
From the start of the epidemic alert, the government put measures in place to control the spread of the virus, suspending international flights and imposing in March one of the strictest lockdowns in the world.
Wearing a mask has been made compulsory in many states, and information campaigns on the measures to be taken to avoid contamination have been widely disseminated.
The restriction measures were gradually relaxed from June in order to revive a struggling economy.
Doctors from the states of Gujarat (west), Uttar Pradesh (north) and Andhra Pradesh (center), Delhi and Bombay - with a total population of over 330 million - told AFP have observed a significant drop in the number of cases in hospitals.
In Delhi, the government says that 90% of beds dedicated to Covid-19 patients are unoccupied.
"We are currently treating barely 40-50 patients," Deven Juneja, a doctor in a major Delhi hospital, told AFP, referring to "the long queues" in June.
- The hypothesis of collective immunity?
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Experts said it was impossible to explain the dramatic decline in the spread of the virus in India without conclusive in-depth studies.
But early indications suggest it may be a herd immunity situation, meaning that a significant proportion of the population has been immunized against the disease across much of India. .
"I understand that there are enough people in India who have been exposed to the virus. And that may be the reason the numbers are declining," virologist Shahid Jameel told AFP.
The regional director of the World Health Organization (WHO), Poonam Khetrapal Singh, he wants to be cautious: "India is a vast and diverse country, it is difficult to attribute the drop in cases to immunity collective ".
Since mid-January, India has been vaccinating its population with the ambitious goal of immunizing 300 million people by July.
- A possible upsurge?
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Experts say it is too early to celebrate the situation in India.
"We must not let our guard down," warns Mr. Singh.
"The more time we allow the virus to spread everywhere, the greater the risk of new strains emerging. This is a real risk, on a global scale."
© 2021 AFP