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    Collapse of vaccine supplies

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  • Gimbe: Infections increased by 27 percent in the last week.

    Ricciardi: opening school makes no sense

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04 February 2021 "The effects of the Christmas Decree have been exhausted" the decline of the new weekly cases of Covid-19 stops, essentially stable looking at the national data, while in various regions the first signs of a reversal of trend are glimpsed ". states the Gimbe Foundation with its president Nino Cartabellotta, commenting on the result of the monitoring carried out in the week January 27-February 2 compared to the previous one, which records a stabilization of the number of new cases (84,652 vs 85,358, a decrease of 0.8%).



Currently positive cases drop (437.765 vs 482.417), hospitalizations with symptoms are -1.038, equal to -4.9% (20.317 vs 21.355), intensive care -158, equal to -6.7% (2.214 vs 2.372) and deaths (2,922 vs 3,265, a decrease of 10.5%).

In fact, compared to the previous week, in 9 regions - Abruzzo, Campania, Liguria, Molise, Tuscany, Umbria, Piedmont and the provinces of Trento and Bolzano - the percentage increase in new cases dates back and in 5 regions (Abruzzo, Molise, Provincia autonomous of Trento, Tuscany and Umbria9 there is an increase in the currently positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants.



"Signals - reaffirms Cartabellotta - that invite attention to be kept high on the spread of new variants, enhancing the sequencing of the virus where anomalous increases in new cases ". At the hospital level - explains Renata Gili, Head of Research on Health Services of the Gimbe Foundation - despite a further slight drop in hospitalizations and intensive care, employment by Covid patients exceeds the 40% threshold in 5 regions in the medical area and in 6 Regions that of 30% of intensive care.  



As for vaccines, the Foundation recalls that based on the decisions taken during the meeting of

yesterday between the government, the regions and the commissioner, the supplies scheduled for the first quarter of 2021 are as follows: Pfizer-BioNTech has committed to supply 7.56 million doses;

Moderna confirmed the supply of 1.32 million doses foreseen by the vaccination plan;

AstraZeneca has committed to deliver 5.3 million doses, increased according to the announcement of the President of the European Commission, Von der Leyen.



Overall in the first quarter, also considering the 480,000 delivered in December 2020, it is estimated the availability of 14.7 million doses (of which almost 2.4 million have already been delivered) which would allow to complete the vaccination cycle of 7.3 million of people (about 12% of the population).

"As a result of the delays announced - Gili specifies - supplies will be concentrated in the second half of the first quarter and for the most part in March. Without a massive strengthening of the organizational machine, therefore, it will be impossible to administer all the doses before the end of April. ".



Administration chapter.

As of yesterday (update at 14:02) 808,306 people (1.36% of the population) completed the vaccination cycle with the second dose, with marked


regional

differences

: from 0.80% in Calabria to 1.89% in 'Emilia-Romagna (figure 2).

In addition, in the last 12 days, due to delivery delays, almost exclusively second doses were administered.

Overall, 71% of the doses were intended for health and social health workers, 19% for non-health personnel, 9% for RSA personnel and guests and 1% for people aged 80 or over.



"It has been clarified - explains Cartabellotta - that the 'non-health personnel', officially not foreseen by the vaccination plan, includes people who work in various capacities in hospitals and health facilities. But, in the absence of a national vaccination register, in this category may also include subjects currently excluded from the priority categories ".

Moreover, compared to the national average of 19%, the official database shows a considerable regional variability: from 2% in Umbria to 32% in Basilicata and Lombardy.



The Gimbe Foundation, in order to remedy any inconsistencies, reiterates its invitation to Regions and Autonomous Provinces to verify and possibly correct the data transmitted centrally that feed the dashboard on the Anti Covid-19 Vaccine Reports.

"In the midst of the government crisis - concludes Cartabellotta - we are going through one of the most critical phases of the pandemic: on the one hand the inevitable slowdown in the vaccination campaign, marked by continuous downward revisions of supplies, on the other hand the first signs of an increase of circulation of the virus, undoubtedly underestimated. But above all there is the threat of new variants, already landed in Italy, which risk making the contagion curve soar. In the meantime, in an Italy that is almost entirely yellow people continue to appeal, in a manner paternalistic, to the common sense of the citizens who in reality do nothing but adapt to what is permitted ".