No European leader can fill the void

Europe is not ready for the post-Merkel era

  • Merkel has solved intractable problems in the European Union.

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  • The European Union will not be the same after the German chancellor.

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  • Macron will not be able to replace Merkel.

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2021 is the year in which Europe must learn to live without Angela Merkel, and the German chancellor will step down in the fall, after more than 15 years in office, and at least he was held as the undisputed leader of Europe, and this transition is not without risks, and the danger here is not linked to who Will replace it.

Instead, it is the result of the void it will leave in Europe, and despite some commentators' exaggeration, all the contenders to replace it (Armin Laschet, Frederick Mears, Norbert Röttgen, Marcus Söder and Jeans Span) are mainstream, even if some of them are more A reservation, with an apparent difference from others, and more importantly, that the coalition that will emerge from the September elections will likely consist of the "Union parties" led by Merkel, and made up of Christian Democrats, the Bavarian Christian Social Union, and the Green Party.

good news

In the end, this will be good news for Germany and Europe, but in the short and medium term Merkel’s departure will leave a big void, which no leader in the European Union can reliably fill, and the French President, Emmanuel Macron, will definitely try to fill the void, but without Merkel or a strong partner. Probably in Berlin, he will not succeed. Macron is a more divisive figure and has more ambitious, but also controversial, ideas about European Union reform.

The French president will struggle, or be less inclined, to shape the compromises on which the European Union is based, and this contrasts with the German leader's advanced political skills, which were meticulously demonstrated at the end of last year.

Under Merkel's leadership, Germany's presidency of the European Union was able to go a long way in achieving economic recovery in Europe, through a deal on a 750 billion euro recovery fund, in the face of strong opposition from Hungary and Poland, and was also able to conclude a trade agreement with the United Kingdom and an investment deal. With China, both of which have real value for broader political and strategic cooperation, and if that is not enough, they have also managed to raise the level of the European Union's climate ambitions, and emissions reduction targets for 2030.

Mainstay

There are many criticisms of Merkel, the concessions she brokered, and what is most condemnable is that entrenched industrial interests within the Christian Democratic Union have forced her to bow to the desires of governments, in Warsaw, Budapest and Beijing, once again.

There is some truth to it, but Merkel's critics pay little serious attention to counterfactuals, or the costs involved in alternative courses of action, and if the German chancellor has pressed Warsaw or Budapest too hard on the rule of law, she has minimized the risk of strengthening populists. And extremist nationalists in both countries, and excluding members from European Union funds, which are the mainstay of membership, would also have seriously split the bloc, and even create other opportunities for China and Russia.

Cohesion under test

The EU’s cohesion could also have been subjected to further testing, as its economic recovery waned, and in the absence of reliable financial support from the European Union, more unwanted pressures would have fallen on the European Central Bank and the debt-ridden economies.

All of this would prove to be a very high price, and Merkel was right, especially since the European Union’s new rule of law tool, in time, would allow Brussels to become tougher with the corrupt leaders who mock the values ​​of the European Union, and could Macron have mediated in these solutions alone ?

of course not.

The French president is important

But without the French president, many of these ideas would not have existed in the first place. The Recovery Fund was created in the Elysee, and it can be said that it is a repeat of the “eurozone budget”, which was Macron's first European political priority when he won the presidency in 2017. And on Although the Missberg Declaration, which followed, in 2018, had many shortcomings, it represented a symbolic step, albeit with a disagreement towards French long-term thinking, especially the ideas expressed by Macron at the Sorbonne University in 2017 .. Likewise, "strategic autonomy" - Paris' intellectual framework for the independence of the European Union and its geopolitical significance - laid the foundation for the bloc's recent initiative with China.

The Treaty of "Aachen", signed in January 2019, also renewed the French-German Elysee Treaty of 1963, and committed the two countries to "strengthening cooperation and integration". Of course, Britain's exit from the European Union, Donald Trump, and the Coronavirus epidemic were decisive factors in changing Merkel’s view, but the chancellor clearly understood the need to move away from the old German balance between Atlantic, Eastern Europe and Moscow, and to establish stronger ties with southern Europe, namely Italy and Spain, as well as France.

Strategic vision

So Macron can say that he succeeded where his predecessors, Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande, failed, and he did so in part, because he had a European strategic vision to present to the Germans;

At a time when they saw that they needed a strategy, and not just a request for German financial support, but while Macron clearly expects to be a guiding force in post-Merkel Europe, he will actually need, more than ever, a sympathetic partner in Berlin, and that's outside. Quite out of his will, and Macron's biggest fear lies in a new German chancellor turning his back on European issues and focusing on the inward, a fear that is somewhat justified.

Domestic issues

Germany’s new leader, who lacks experience, is likely to be more preoccupied with domestic politics and managing the coalition than Merkel was. The Christian Democrats and the Greens have never formed a partnership before, and when it comes to Europe they are likely to be wary. Moreover, Macron's energy and efforts, this year, will be largely exhausted by the local health and economic crisis, and when the new German leader begins work, Macron's presidential elections are approaching, in the spring of 2022, and this means that Paris and Berlin will remain outside the line, for some time, In the future, and that Europe will be led ineffectively, over the next 12 to 15 months.

Could this affect the smooth implementation of the recovery fund, or perhaps most importantly, reform of the European Union's fiscal rules, arguably key to the long-term sustainability of the euro?

Could the European Union agreement with China be suspended, indefinitely, in the European Parliament?

Without Merkel, or the effective French-German cooperation provided by the Merkel and Macron duo, angry leaders, such as Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, could seek to exploit the vacuum, which increases the risk of skirmishes in the eastern Mediterranean.

• In the short and medium terms, Merkel’s departure will leave a great void that no leader in the European Union can reliably fill. The French President, Emmanuel Macron, will certainly try to fill the void, but without Merkel or a potential strong partner in Berlin, he will not succeed.

• While Macron clearly expects to be a guiding force in post-Merkel Europe, he will in fact need, more than ever, a sympathetic partner in Berlin, which is completely beyond his control.

Macron's biggest fear lies in a new German chancellor who turns his back on European issues and focuses on the inside, a fear that is somewhat justified.

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