Portugal is the country with the most deaths in relation to its population.

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Armando Franca / AP / SIPA

  • More than 11,000 people have died from the coronavirus in Portugal, making it the most bereaved country in the world if the death toll is reported to the population.

  • After suffering a second wave that was difficult to manage, Portugal has been mired in a particularly severe epidemic outbreak since the end of December.

  • How did the country get there?

Portugal crossed the threshold of 11,000 deaths linked to the coronavirus on Thursday, which makes it, if we relate it to its population, the country most bereaved by the epidemic in the world.

And things are not getting better.

This Thursday alone, the country recorded 303 deaths in twenty-four hours.

A huge figure for a nation of only ten million people.

If we relate to the population, it is as if France had more than 2,000 dead in a single day.

However, even at the height of the first wave, the country has never recorded more than 1,500 deaths in twenty-four hours.

Reconfined since January 15, Portugal continues to see a surge in new cases - until the lockdown takes effect.

The nation had 16,432 new cases on Thursday.

Nevertheless, the shutdown of the country is starting to show its effects, the R (virus reproduction rate) having dropped from more than 1.2 to 1.1.

But what happened to come to such a catastrophic situation?

Open supercontaminants

The country is accused of having too relaxed the health rules after a second wave that it had already had all the trouble in the world to stem.

Thus, the curfew in Portugal only applied from 11 p.m. to 5 a.m. (and it was further relaxed at Christmas from 2 a.m. to 5 a.m.), the number of people per household was not limited. during parties, and above all, restaurants and bars were open.

"We see once again that these places are super-contaminating spaces, like all enclosed places without a mask, and that they must be left closed as much as possible", notes Michaël Rochoy, doctor and epidemiology researcher.

What also to note the good French decision: "We can criticize the health choices of the government on many points, but since the closure of restaurants and bars for the second confinement, he has always stuck to it and was right. .

Not to mention the message sent back by Portugal.

The researcher regrets: "When you open everything, when you give an air of 'life from before', how do you make a speech audible calling for attention or to limit your movements?

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Christmas, the bad accused

A hypothesis often put forward to understand the situation in Portugal is the effect of Christmas and New Year, with a possible relaxation in families during these days.

But for Antoine Flahault, professor of public health at the University of Geneva and director of the Institute of Global Health, the theory is not reflected in the curves.

He notes “a visible effect of acceleration of the virus long before, from December 19, the virus begins to rise.

If the current situation was due only to Christmas and the New Year, it would only be visible from around mid-January, but the situation was already deteriorating several weeks before that date.

"

So what could have happened after December 19?

According to Antoine Flahault, part of the explanation would come more from the end-of-year holidays overall than from the specific day of the holidays in particular.

He notes that many regions in the south, such as Spain but also the south of France, have been massively affected since these end-of-year celebrations.

Tourist wave and epidemic wave

What if Portugal and southern Europe more generally had experienced a very significant tourist wave, in particular due to the closure of ski resorts this winter?

"It is quite possible that many tourists have gone to hot destinations for lack of skiing, not to mention the return to the classic country of the European Portuguese diaspora", notes Antoine Flahault.

Especially since Portugal or Spain had restaurants, bars, theaters open, major tourist arguments for most Europeans lacking in life before.

"We see the double perverse effect of this kind of openness, not only are they super-contaminating places, but they increase the viral circulation all the more as they attract people", notes Michaël Rochoy.

All this tourist influx, especially from countries with a high rate of contamination, would only have made the situation worse.

The variant, the easy culprit?

Finally, there is the last point, the variants.

Portuguese medical authorities estimate that the British variant accounts for 30% of contaminations and could reach 60% within a few weeks.

This variant is considered by several studies to be more contagious than the normal version of Sars-cov-2.

Neighboring Spain is also experiencing a surge in cases and the British variant, as is obviously the UK.

But for Michaël Rochoy, these three countries present another less random characteristic, namely that restaurants, bars and pubs were reopened after the second wave: "The virus can be the most contaminating possible, if people do not mix, it will not contaminate anyone.

Governments which have had irresponsible health attitudes hide too much behind the variants to explain epidemic outbreaks ”.

In this new Portuguese confinement, bars and restaurants are obviously closed.

It remains to be seen whether they will reopen directly when the measures are eased.

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