Covid-19, the Iss report: Rt index still down at 0.84

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January 29, 2021

In the period 06 January - 19 January 2021, the average Rt index calculated on symptomatic cases was equal to 0.84 (range 0.75- 0.98), "decreasing and with the upper limit of the range below one ".

This is what the draft of the weekly monitoring of the control room shows, with data relating to the week 18/1 / 2021-24 / 1/2021 (updated to 27/1/2021).

One Region, Molise, has a punctual Rt greater than 1 even in the lower limit compatible with a type 2 scenario. The other Regions / PPAA have a punctual Rt compatible with a type one scenario.

Less intensive care admissions, but strong differences between regions

There are eight Italian

, compared to twelve last week, that have an employment rate in intensive care and / or medical areas above the critical threshold of 30%.

The ICU employment rate nationwide is 28%.

Overall, the number of people admitted to intensive care decreased from 2,487 (19/01/2021) to 2,372 (26/01/2021);

the number of people hospitalized in medical areas is also decreasing, going from 22,699 (19/01/2021) to 21,355 (26/01/2021).

"This trend at a national level underlies strong inter-regional variations with some regions where the absolute number of hospitalized in a critical area and the relative impact, together with the incidence, however, impose restrictive measures", specifies the ISS.

The epidemic, the monitoring draft reads, "remains in a delicate phase and a new rapid increase in the number of cases in the coming weeks is possible if mitigation measures are not strictly maintained at both national and regional levels".

In Umbria high risk, in 10 moderate regions

Only one Region, Umbria, remains with an overall high risk classification (compared to 4 last week), while 10 Regions are classified with moderate risk (period 18-24 January).

"This week - reads the report - we continue to observe an improvement in the general level of risk, with a significant increase in low-risk Regions according to the Ministerial Decree of 30 April 2020. Overall, only one Region has a high risk classification ( vs four the previous week), ten with moderate risk (one of which at high risk of progression at high risk in the next few weeks) and ten with low risk. One Region (Molise) has a punctual Rt greater than 1 even in the lower compatible limit with a type 2 scenario. The other Regions / PPAA have a punctual RT that is compatible with a type one scenario ".

The regions with

are Abruzzo, Fvg, Lazio, Liguria, Lombardy, Marche, the Province of Bolzano (with a high risk of progression), the Province of Trento, Puglia and Tuscany.

Low risk

for Basilicata, Calabria, Campania, Emilia Romagna, Molise (with high progression risk), Piedmont, Sardinia, Sicily, Val d'Aosta and Veneto.