• IMF cuts Italy's GDP estimates: in 2021 only + 3%.

    As in the Great Depression, 22 trillion billion burned

  • Istat: Covid slows the recovery in the Eurozone.

    GDP - 7.3 in 2020

  • Lagarde: the ECB lowers the 2021 GDP estimate for the Eurozone to + 3.9%

  • Fitch raises global GDP estimates: + 5.3% in 2021 with the arrival of the vaccine

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January 28, 2021 The Fiscal Monitor of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to which the 2020 figure stands at 157.5%, with a jump of more than 20 percentage points compared to 134.6% in 2019, 

assigns Italian public debt a estimate of 159.7% in 2021

.

The projection of the Washington institute fixes the deficit-to-GDP ratio at 10.9% in 2020 and 7.5% in 2021. The numbers are not far from those contained in the Nadef, which fixes the debt at 158% in 2020 and 155.6% in 2021 and debt respectively 10.8 and 7% of GDP.



The

Italian public debt remains the second among those of advanced economies

, surpassed only by the Japanese one.

According to the Fund, Tokyo will see the debt-to-GDP ratio settle at 258.7% in both 2020 and 2021.



As for the past year, the IMF has revised upwards the forecast on Italy's budget deficit for 2020, to 10.9% of GDP, while it has reduced the estimate for 2021 to 7.5% of GDP.

On the contrary, it has attenuated the forecast on the increase in the debt-GDP of 2020, to 157.5%, but has raised that for 2021 to 159.7%.

In the study, the Washington institution reiterates that the global budgetary effort against the pandemic "has helped save lives and mitigate the effect of the crisis."

A trend that inevitably, together with the economic and fiscal contraction, led to worsening of public finances.



And on this aspect "now - warns the IMF -

credible medium-term budget strategies are needed

, especially where debts are high and where financing conditions are tight or at risk".



The forecast for Italy's 2020 GDP deficit is 2.1 higher than that indicated in the estimates of last October, while that for 2021 is 1.3 points lower.

The debt-to-GDP forecast is 4.3 points lower on 2020 (in October the IMF indicated 161.8%) and 1.4 points higher on 2021 (in October it was 158.3%).



Global public debt Global public

debt will reach 100% of GDP by the end of 2021, according to which the figure stood at 97.6% in 2020 and will rise to 99.5% this year.

The estimate of the ratio between deficit and GDP stands at 11.8 and 8.5% respectively.

In detail, it is the advanced economies that have recorded the greatest deterioration in public accounts.

The debt of the countries of the group, the Fund predicts, closed 2020 at 122.7% and will end 2021 at 124.9%.

Italy, with 157.5 and 159.7% respectively, is only better than Japan, whose debt remains stable at 258.7% in the two years.

Third place to the United States, with 128.7 and 132.5%.

In the Eurozone, the debt stands at 98.1% in 2020 and 99.0% in 2021. Germany reaches 70.0 and 69.9%, respectively, while France is at 115.3 and at 117.6% in the two years.