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Düsseldorf (dpa) - Cleared shop windows and barricaded entrance doors: The Corona crisis and the triumph of online retail are now leaving unmistakable traces in more and more German pedestrian zones.

But that could just be the beginning.

The German Trade Association (HDE) fears that up to 50,000 stores could end up in the current crisis.

And according to a recent study, the fashion trade is facing bloodletting in the next few years that could change city centers forever.

Because the Corona crisis has massively accelerated the trend towards online trading that has existed for years.

In their study “Fashion 2030”, the management consultancy KPMG and the retail research institute EHI predict that half of all fashion in Germany will be bought online by 2030.

This would double the market share of online retailers.

With dramatic consequences for the inner cities.

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"For retailers, the decline in sales in the stationary sector means that they have to reduce their stationary space," forecast EHI expert Marco Atzberger.

According to the study, retail space in the textile sector could be halved.

Department stores and multi-storey formats will be hit particularly hard.

According to the study, the significant reduction in retail space will also be a major challenge for urban development.

In fact, reports about branch closings and business closures are already increasing.

This week alone it became known that the Pimkie chain, which specializes in young fashion, is closing almost half of its stores and the French textile retailer Promod is immediately giving up all its stores in Germany.

Germany's largest perfumery chain Douglas also announced on Thursday that it would close almost every seventh branch in Germany - a total of around 60 of the more than 430 stores.

The reason is the ever faster shift of sales to the Internet, said Douglas boss Tina Müller.

Douglas is one of the retailers who have made the leap into online trading remarkably well.

Last year, Douglas made more than one billion euros in sales on the Internet.

In Germany, the online share of sales is now 40 percent.

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Germany’s last large department store group, Galeria Karstadt Kaufhof, is nowhere near as far as it has just secured a state loan of up to 460 million euros to help it get through the pandemic.

At the department store group, online business is still a stepchild.

The share of sales from the e-commerce business was recently less than 5 percent, so that the online shop can hardly compensate for the current losses caused by the shop closings.

In the industry, the approval of the aids for the department store group made things easier.

"We think it is right that a company that is so important to our inner cities is now supported," said HDE Managing Director Stefan Genth.

Galeria Karstadt Kaufhof is a traffic generator and is also important for the survival of other retailers at the locations.

In addition to the corona crisis and the success of online trading, fashion retailers could face another development in the next few years.

"The trend for second-hand clothing is drawing ever larger circles and has the potential to unite a market share of 20 percent in the next ten years," according to the study by KPMG and EHI.

The main drivers are the increasing sustainability debate, the digitization of the second-hand trade and the commitment of the major online fashion platforms such as Zalando or About You, which have discovered this market for themselves.

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No wonder that many industry experts assume that the inner cities will change their face dramatically in the next few years.

Where fashion and jewelry stores still dominate today, a new diversity could move in.

HDE CEO Genth is certain that retail will continue to play a major role in city centers.

But in view of the growing online trade, a new mix of shopping, living, services, trade, culture, leisure and education is necessary in the future.

Nursing homes for the elderly and daycare centers could also find a place there in the future.

"The downtown model is far from obsolete - and retail will definitely be an integral part of it, but it will look different," said Genth.

© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210128-99-208463 / 2