Confinement in France: Emmanuel Macron's hesitations

In the entourage of the president, it was explained that Emmanuel Macron wanted to be “coherent”, to ensure the “readability” of his message and therefore to have all the cards in hand before deciding for or against a reconfinement.

STEPHANE MAHE POOL / AFP / File

Text by: Valérie Gas Follow

5 mins

Containment or no containment?

The French still do not have an answer to this question.

Emmanuel Macron has not decided and there have been a lot of contradictory signals in recent days.

After the last health defense council, all the scenarios are still on the table, from maintaining the curfew at 6 p.m. to confinement "very tight".

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Difficult to navigate ... Last weekend, the press evoked an almost inevitable confinement with a presidential announcement during a speech whose date seemed already recorded.

After numerous positions taken by doctors who unanimously warned against the effects of the new variants on the spread of the epidemic, the risk of an outbreak of contaminations, of a new saturation of hospitals and intensive care services, this announcement seemed logical.

Especially since Monday morning, it was the Prime Minister himself, Jean Castex, who had declared that

"

decisions had to be taken this week

 " and that it was not a question

of

" 

letting our guard down

 ".

France therefore seemed to be on the way to an imminent third confinement.

Mastering the health and political clocks

But at the Elysée, we quickly temporized.

From the start of the week, it was said that it was urgent to wait, that nothing had been decided.

One way to regain control of the health and political clocks.

In the entourage of the president, it was explained that Emmanuel Macron wanted to be " 

coherent 

", to ensure the " 

readability 

" of his message and therefore to have all the cards in hand before deciding, in particular to know the impact of the generalization of the cover -fire at 6 p.m., the results of which must be made public at the end of the week, such as the progress of the British variant.

For the moment, contaminations in France are on a plateau " 

ascending

" but not

"uncontrolled

 ", believes the executive.

Faced with repeated alerts from doctors, starting with that of the president of the scientific council, Jean-François Delfraissy, who affirmed that the English variant was equivalent to a “ 

second pandemic

 ” and asked for a very rapid re-containment before mitigating his remarks by considering that we could wait a few days, the Head of State therefore prefers to leave himself a little time.

The decision is political.

And it is Emmanuel Macron who takes it.

This is also what the president wanted to recall.

► To read also: Covid-19 in France: imprecise vaccination objectives and threat of a 3rd confinement

The question of "

 anticipation

 "

What are the criteria for the decision?

There is of course the evolution of contaminations, the fact of reaching the threshold which makes containment essential.

In March or October, the curve was “

 exponential

 ”, recalls the president's entourage.

France is not yet in this situation but the arrival of new variants and especially the English variant, changes the situation.

The question today is also to know if we confine by "

 anticipation

 " to avoid an explosion of contaminations which has not yet taken place.

At the end of the last health defense council and the council of ministers, the government spokesperson announced that the President of the Republic had requested additional epidemiological and scientific analyzes because the effectiveness of the 6 p.m. curfew appears at this stage “ 

real

 ” but “ 

relative 

”.

Several scenarios are being considered by the executive.

They range from maintaining the current curfew at 6 p.m., 

unlikely

 according to Gabriel Attal, to confinement " 

very tight

 ".

A complicated choice for the President of the Republic for whom confinement is the " 

last resort 

".

Because Emmanuel Macron does not take lightly the impact of this measure on the French and the consequences on the economic, social but also psychological level.

He pays close attention to the acceptability of a re-containment.

And according to a survey by the Elabe institute, 52% of French people are against a new strict national confinement, the one recommended by scientists.

Restrictions on freedom are increasingly badly supported.

The example of the demonstrations in the Netherlands shows this.

It is also one of the parameters of Emmanuel Macron's decision: not to expose yourself to too strong a challenge.

Especially since another survey published by

Liberation

indicates that 57% of French people do not trust him to get out of the health crisis.

It is a big stake for Emmanuel Macron who will be judged on his management of the epidemic.

The President of the Republic has been the subject of much criticism on the opacity of the decisions taken in the secrecy of the health defense council, on the shortcomings of the logistics for the masks, the tests and the beginnings of the vaccination.

In this context, the danger for Emmanuel Macron is that the hesitations on the reconfinement reinforce the concern and the severity of the French towards him.

The consultation that Jean Castex will lead in the coming days with parliamentarians, associations of elected officials and social partners, as he had already done before the previous confinements, also aims in this context to prepare minds for the decisions that will be taken.

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