client, Beijing, January 27th (Reporter Li Jinlei) People in high-risk areas should celebrate the New Year in situ. People in medium-risk areas should celebrate the New Year on the spot in principle. In low-risk areas, people should celebrate the New Year in situ... Chinese New Year is the general trend, and this will also bring new effects and changes to the economy, and some industries will benefit from it.

Data map: Jinzhong City's New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control Office advocates for people to celebrate festivals on the spot.

Zhang Yunshe

In-situ New Year rules are here

  Recently, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in Providing Services for the People on the New Year's Day", requesting that the masses be guided in a reasonable and orderly manner.

  Among them, people in high-risk areas should celebrate the New Year locally to minimize the movement of people to prevent the spread of the epidemic due to the movement of people.

In principle, the masses in the medium-risk areas celebrate the New Year on the spot. Those who need to travel under special circumstances must obtain the approval of the local epidemic prevention and control agency.

In low-risk areas, people are encouraged to celebrate the New Year on the spot and not travel unless necessary.

  The personnel of government agencies, institutions and state-owned enterprises should take the lead in celebrating the New Year on the spot, guiding migrant workers from other places and teachers and students who have not yet left school to celebrate the New Year on the spot.

In principle, those who really need to travel should not go to medium- and high-risk areas.

  Previously, the State Council’s joint prevention and control mechanism for the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic and the Central Rural Leading Group Office have jointly issued the "Work Plan for the Prevention and Control of the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic in Rural Areas in Winter and Spring", requiring returnees to have valid new coronavirus nucleic acid within 7 days After returning home with a negative test result, home health monitoring will be carried out for 14 days after returning home. During this period, there will be no gathering or flow, and nucleic acid testing will be carried out every 7 days.

Many popular routes during the Spring Festival have reduced prices.

Ticket prices for popular Spring Festival transport routes dive

  A survey report released on the 25th showed that 66.7% of the respondents chose to celebrate the New Year locally.

As more and more people responded to the call to celebrate the New Year on the spot, the passenger flow has also declined than expected, and the ticket purchase situation of many popular train lines and routes is far less tense than in previous years.

  According to the public information of the 2021 National Spring Festival Transport Video and Telephone Conference held on January 15, the pre-sale of tickets before the Spring Festival has dropped by nearly 60% compared with the same period in previous years. It is expected that the national railway passenger flow during the Spring Festival will be reduced to 296 million.

From the perspective of civil aviation, it is expected that the number of passengers traveling by civil aviation during the Spring Festival this year will be significantly lower than normal.

  The reduction in passenger travel has also made some popular routes during the Spring Festival travel season cold.

Qunar data shows that as of January 25, the average price paid for air ticket reservations has dropped to 651.36 yuan, the lowest average price paid for air ticket pre-sales in 5 years before the Spring Festival.

  For example, the prices of difficult-to-find routes such as Beijing-Harbin and Beijing-Sanya have all cooled.

The lowest paid price (including engine fuel) for the Beijing-Harbin route departing on the 29th of the twelfth lunar month (February 10) fell below 1,000 yuan, which was only a 55% discount off the full price.

On the Beijing-Sanya route, which had been grabbed for business class in previous years, the lowest price paid the day before the Spring Festival holiday was only 610 yuan, which was only 17% off the full price.

Data map.

Photo courtesy of Jilin Cultural Tourism

Long-distance travel to cool down and heat up local travel

  Popular routes are cold, and long-distance vacations cool down. At the same time, the flow of people is shifting to local tours and surrounding tours. Resort hotels and homestays around beautiful cities are selling well.

  Ctrip data shows that over 80% of users tend to travel locally.

Local visits to Shanghai, Huzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Guiyang, Ningbo, Changsha, and Zhengzhou increased.

Among them, local visits to Shanghai increased by about 61%, and local visits to Chengdu and Chongqing also increased by 40%.

The search volume of local scenic spots during the Spring Festival on Qunar platform increased by 70% a week, and the search volume for "wine + scenery" packages increased by 40%.

  Data from Tujia Homestay shows that during the Spring Festival this year, the number of bookings for resort hotels in Beijing suburbs, homestay courtyards and other tourism products gradually began to increase. Among them, the occupancy rate of some guesthouses in Beijing suburbs during the Spring Festival has exceeded 70%.

Due to the increase in the number of tourists who package single-family homestays for the Spring Festival this year, the average price per guest has reached 2,000 yuan per night, a significant increase compared to last year.

  The small and beautiful attractions in and around the area are the first choice for local travel, and skiing and hot springs are still the darlings of local hot searches.

Take Beijing as an example. The most popular local search areas are Nanshan Ski Resort, Gubei Water Town, Jundu Mountain Ski Resort, Forbidden City, and Huaibei International Ski Resort.

  "I can't go home this year. I plan to go to the resort to spend the year in hot springs. I will go home after a long holiday on May Day or National Day." Some netizens shared the arrangements for the Chinese New Year on social media.

Overseas Chinese enterprises advocated "Chinese New Year in situ".

Photo by Yin Shiyuan

Alleviate labor shortage and benefit industrial production

  At present, many places have introduced policies to encourage local Chinese New Year to support enterprise production. For example, Tianjin, Guangxi and other places provide enterprises with stable and full output rewards and recruitment bonuses. Under the temptation of high subsidies, many workers have already decided Chinese New Year at the factory.

  Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told a reporter from that the local Chinese New Year is expected to have a positive effect on production, because export companies in the southeast coast have sufficient orders. In previous years, workers returning home for the holidays would affect production, but this year the impact is relatively low. .

  “Because the workers spend the New Year in the local area, some people will choose to work overtime to get more subsidies, which will help the company to maintain normal production during the holiday. In addition, it can also save workers’ return time and start production immediately after the Spring Festival holiday. Overall, local The New Year will have a positive impact on alleviating labor shortages and meeting labor demand after the holiday." Wen Bin said.

  Liang Zhonghua, a macro analyst at Haitong Securities, also said that if the number of people "in situ Chinese New Year" during the Spring Festival this year increases and the return of the population decreases, the downtime will be shortened, and the pace of resumption of work after the Spring Festival will be faster, which will significantly affect economic production activities. Boost.

  Huang Libin, director of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at a press conference of the State Information Office on January 26 that celebrating the new year on the spot is a positive promotion and stimulus to industry.

A wide variety of Spring Festival products.

Photo by Yang Bo

Consumption may be uneven

  From the consumer perspective, Soochow Securities believes that the Spring Festival is the largest offline gathering event in China throughout the year, driving consumption sectors including liquor, cinemas, catering and holiday gifts, and the local Chinese New Year may have a certain impact on these sectors .

  A research report issued by the macro team of New Era Securities stated that the local Chinese New Year will indeed curb some transportation and social consumption, but it may not have a great impact on other consumption.

Chinese New Year in situ has changed the population distribution during the Spring Festival, and its impact on consumption is more structural and regionally differentiated.

  Specifically, compared with previous years, the population outflow of the first-tier cities has decreased during the Spring Festival, and consumption of catering and entertainment may increase. On the contrary, consumption in the third- and fourth-tier cities and rural areas will decrease due to the decrease in population inflow.

At the same time, the "home economy" such as online shopping, home entertainment, and online office continues to benefit, and consumption of digital content and electronic products will also increase.

  Chinese New Year in situ has also spawned an online shopping boom for New Year’s goods. People cannot go home, but New Year’s goods and gifts have to be delivered. Therefore, hoarding New Year’s goods online has become an essential gesture for everyone to relieve their homesickness and express their feelings.

On January 21, the search volume of Taobao "new year goods" surged by 240%, and melon seeds and peanuts became the best-selling new year goods.

  How are you going to celebrate the new year on the spot?