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Mainz (dpa / lrs) - According to political scientist Kai Arzheimer, the corona pandemic could lead to a high turnout in the state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate.
«I think there is a mobilization.
Perhaps it will also attract a few former non-voters to the ballot box, ”said the professor at Mainz University of the German Press Agency.
The reason for this: In the Corona crisis, state politics are "perhaps a little more interesting than in other elections".
Because when the new state parliament was elected on March 14, it was almost exactly a year ago that the pandemic began - with a lot of discussions about lockdowns and easing.
In the last state election in 2016, the turnout was 70.4 percent.
"That was already quite high and was connected with a mobilization regarding immigration, where there was also a polarization in Rhineland-Palatinate," said Arzheimer.
For the upcoming election, he also reckoned with "probably back 70 percent".
In the previous three elections, the turnout was between 58.2 and 62.1 percent.
Even a pure postal vote, which is being considered due to the restrictions in the pandemic, would not slow down determined voters in the short term.
“If we assume that the decision is made in February to vote purely by post, then everyone would receive the documents.
And then you could still mark the last week before the state elections and decide at short notice, ”said the scientist.
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The trend in recent years in elections is towards postal voting anyway.
“Simply because you live differently today than in the 1970s, because you may not even know exactly where you will be on election Sunday.
And also because it's convenient.
Just as you order something on the Internet from the couch at home, you can also choose from the couch at home, ”said Arzheimer.
The expert also sees a trend for short-term choices.
"The number of people with a solid party affiliation is falling."
In the corona pandemic, it is difficult for the opposition leader and CDU top candidate Christian Baldauf to position himself against the incumbent traffic light coalition with Prime Minister Malu Dreyer (SPD).
On the one hand, because of the restrictions in the election campaign: large events are taboo.
On the other hand, because of the measures that were decided in the fight against Corona in the broad non-partisan consensus.
"The opposition leader can really only say that he would be the better manager," said Arzheimer.
According to the political scientist, there could be a new edition of the government alliance of the SPD, FDP and the Greens after the election.
"If it's enough, I think it'll be just enough," he said.
At the moment it does not look like there is "a mad trend towards or away from a party".
However, there is still time to go before the election.
"So everything is moving a little under the radar."
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© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210125-99-156256 / 2
Homepage Kai Arzheimer
State Returning Officer for "Selected Results of the State Elections since 1947"