Negotiating with the opposition or pushing through, the Democrats' dilemma

Democratic Majority Leader in the US Senate Chuck Schumer.

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In the United States, this is called the “nuclear option”.

While the Democrats have the smallest possible majority in the Senate (51-50 with the vote of Kamala Harris), some elected officials are calling on their leader Chuck Schumer to bury the "filibuster", an old rule on obstruction that allows the opposition to block any (off-budget) bill that does not have the support of 60 out of 100 senators. That would free Joe Biden for his reforms but would not really send the promised message of unity.

And could come back to haunt Democrats in two years if Republicans regain control of the Senate.

Seen from France, the system can be surprising.

The Democrats certainly have control of the Senate, thanks to their two surprise victories in Georgia in early January.

But for most bills, a simple majority is not enough.

The opposition can indeed obstruct the procedure and prevent a text from being debated: it is the “filibuster”.

To avoid this, we need a qualified majority of three fifths, or 60 votes.

It is thanks to this large majority that the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”), the health reform, was adopted in 2009.

A double-edged weapon

With 50 seats each, the two parties are currently negotiating a power-sharing deal in the Senate.

Republican Minority Boss Mitch McConnell is demanding Democrats and Chuck Schumer pledge to protect the filibuster.

But faced with the extreme obstruction of Republicans during the second half of Obama's term, moving to a simple majority is the only way to avoid the deadlock, say many progressives.

For now, there is no guarantee that the Democrats will be able to sign the end of the filibuster.

Populist Joe Manchin, a senator from West Virginia, a very Republican rural state, has notably said he is opposed to it.

He still wants to keep this sword weapon of Damocles.

Democrats were the first to weaken the filibuster.

Under Obama, Harry Reid decided, facing the Conservative Iron Curtain, to pass by a simple majority for the confirmation of federal judges.

Republicans took advantage under Donald Trump: Mitch McConnell did the same for Supreme Court justices, with three confirmations - one-third from the court - in four years.

With the midterm elections traditionally complicated for the ruling party, Democrats know that if they activate this nuclear option, McConnell will have no qualms two years from now.

An alternative budget “reconciliation”

If the filibuster remains in place, Joe Biden can count on an alternative: the process of "reconciliation".

Laws that have a significant impact on the budget can in fact be passed by simple majority.

And Bernie Sanders, who chairs the Senate Budget Committee, has previously warned Democrats would be "aggressive."

Sanders especially hopes to use it for the vast economic stimulus package of 1.9 trillion dollars announced by Joe Biden.

However, it is not guaranteed that reconciliation can apply to all measures, in particular the increase in the minimum wage.

On Thursday, the new White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki assured that Joe Biden would rather reach an agreement with the Republicans rather than go through reconciliation.

But while moderate Republicans, like Susan Collins, seem to be dragging their feet, the press secretary warned: on the Covid and the economic crisis, "we must act quickly".

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