In the Central African Republic, Touadéra must now consolidate a fragile victory
President Faustin-Archange Touadera greets his supporters at his party's headquarters in Bangui, after the confirmation of his re-election, January 18, 2021. REUTERS - ANTOINE ROLLAND
Text by: RFI Follow
9 min
Validated by the Constitutional Court, the re-election of the president is contested by the opposition.
For the court, as for the international community, it is the exercise of power that will restore the re-elected president to full legitimacy.
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“
The people sent a clear and strong message to those who terrorized them, to those who told them not to vote and to the whole world
.
By paying tribute to the Central Africans who voted overwhelmingly in the areas where they were able to do so, the President of the Constitutional Court, Danièle Darlan, wanted to underline the exasperation of a whole people in front of yet another military adventure, and ultimately validated the re-election of President Faustin Archange Touadéra, during a hearing held Monday, January 18.
Since mid-December, a new alliance of once-enemy armed groups, the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), has indeed seriously disrupted the organization of the poll, clashing with the Central African Armed Forces (FACA), allied with the United Nations Mission (Minusca) and reinforcements from Russia and Rwanda.
The security situation
deteriorated to such an extent
that only half of Central Africans were able to vote freely.
This is what the Court wished to remind, by dividing by two the official participation rate, to bring it down to 35.74%.
For the COD2020 opposition platform, “
President Touadéra was declared the winner with only 17% of the electorate, which deprives him of any legitimacy to lead our country
.
"
For the Constitutional Court, the re-elected president is legitimate, but the president of the Court, Danièle Darlan, insists on the fact that the election is not everything and recalls that "
legitimacy must be won and maintained on a daily basis through the exercise of power and good governance
”.
Re-elected, Faustin Archange Touadéra must now demonstrate that his victory is linked to his action, by pursuing, despite the new obstacles, an approach taken five years ago, which had borne some fruit.
Peacemaking
When he acceded to the presidency for the first time in 2016, after an election where he was not the favorite, the Central African Republic was only a shadow of itself.
Three years earlier, a coalition of politico-military groups, the Seleka (“Alliance” in Sango) took power in Bangui.
The return to constitutional order and the 2016 election nevertheless provided a glimpse of an exit from the tunnel.
But in 2016, armed groups still control the majority of the country, and the economy is bloodless.
Without real ideological motives, these groups clash and ally themselves according to the circumstances, with an economic model based on the predation of resources.
Despite the support of the 12,000 men of the United Nations Mission (Minusca), insecurity is total in the hinterland.
The search for a peace process with armed groups is therefore one of the president's first priorities.
Negotiated and signed in Khartoum (Sudan), with the support of Russia, an agreement was
ratified in Bangui on February 6, 2019
, with 14 armed groups, marking the return to relative stability in the country for nearly two years.
Even if in the end, this agreement will not be respected by all the groups, which will continue to commit abuses on the ground.
State building
At the same time, the Touadéra administration is also pursuing with its partners a vast training program for the FACA, gradually setting up a garrison in each prefecture - a strategy dear to the president.
An army closer to the ground, which should make it possible to better secure the areas and to redevelop the economy at the local level.
In Bouar, in particular, the second city of the country, a garrison is deployed, and the European Unit which helps in the reconstruction of the FACA, (EUTM), is also developing a training center there.
What assessment today?
Little by little, therefore, the main towns found FACA, but in insufficient numbers to face the armed groups, even if they were supported by Minusca and the Internal Security Forces (ISF).
This progress has in fact been very fragile, and many cities remain at the mercy of armed groups, who have recalled for a month their power to harm.
As underlined this Thursday, January 21 Mankeur Ndiaye, the special representative of the UN secretary general in the CAR, in his address to the Security Council, “
the Central African Republic runs a serious risk of setback in terms of security and consolidation of peace, which could undermine everything that this Council and the partners of the Central African Republic have helped to build
”.
He asks for an increase
in the strength of the Minusca by 3,000 men
, in order to face the onslaught of members of the CPC.
Particularly targeted by the attacks of recent days are state agents, who have also made their return to the hinterland through the prefects and sub-prefects, as well as with the presence of civil servants in post ( teachers, doctors, although in very small numbers).
A significant financial effort has also been made by the international community, to allow the rehabilitation of administrative buildings, schools, health centers, or to open up certain areas.
At the economic level, international partners and the government have adopted a vast national recovery plan (RCPCA), intended to get the country afloat.
And in recent years, growth has been there, even if it has been largely boosted by international aid.
However, some of the most important donors, such as the World Bank, deplore the lack of adopted reforms, likely to reassure potential investors.
In the area of justice, too, criminal hearings have restarted, very popular with the population, but the slowness of the establishment of the Special Criminal Court, a mixed tribunal to try the most serious crimes committed since 2003, leaves a taste bitter to the victims.
This feeling of impunity is further heightened by the fact that the main leaders of armed groups have been integrated into the government resulting from the peace agreement, while their organizations have continued to commit abuses on the ground, and above all, no have little or no disarmed.
By sacking four of these warlords during his New Year's speech on December 31, 2020, President Touadéra only confirmed a situation that could not go on, but the problem remains.
All-round diplomacy
In 2016, after the coming to power of Faustin-Archange Touadéra, the question of rearmament of the FACA encountered the mistrust of many international partners.
Indeed, entire arsenals have in the past fallen into the hands of the rebels.
But the Central African forces are sorely lacking in arms, while the armed groups are strengthening themselves without any problem, bypassing the embargo established in 2013 by the Security Council.
President Touadéra then chooses the path of bilateral negotiations, with new partners, and particularly Russia, with which he begins a process of military cooperation.
Private Russian “instructors” were sent to Bangui in 2018, officially to provide additional training to the FACA.
Very quickly, however, these instructors were suspected of being part of the
Wagner company
, a company of Russian mercenaries already operating in Syria or Sudan.
The vagueness maintained by the Russian authorities on the status of these forces and on the nature of the equipment sent to the field will never be completely resolved, as we have seen recently, with the imbroglio on the sending, then the withdrawal. - announced - helicopters and Russian "instructors" called in as reinforcements during the election period.
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To read also
: what do we know about the Russian military presence in the Central African Republic?
France, a traditional partner, but also the United States and Great Britain, have been deeply concerned about Russia's intrusion into the Central African diplomatic game.
Is it to meet the challenge?
Paris reacted by greatly increasing its development aid in the country.
But the former colonial power had to face many very virulent press campaigns and seems to have lost some of its influence.
At the international level, the diplomatic activism of President Touadéra has in any case partially borne fruit.
on several occasions, the arms embargo has been eased, and arms have been delivered to the FACA.
This week, the question of its lifting was again put to the Security Council, but the Central African Ministry of Foreign Affairs encountered the same reluctance.
As when he came to power in 2016, the re-elected president starts his new mandate with a situation of complex armed conflict, in a country where diplomatic and military actors have multiplied.
Mathematics professor Faustin Archange Touadéra will certainly have to use all his science to solve this equation with multiple unknowns.
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