[Restricted View of the World] After Bi takes the stage, will the US-Cuba relationship "break the ice"?
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During Trump's tenure, he suppressed Cuba in many ways, leading to the continuous regression of US-Cuban relations.
The US sanctions have caused many negative effects on Cuba, but Cuba is also actively seeking space for survival.
Biden may improve U.S.-Cuban relations out of his policy on Cuba and US interests, but the pace may depend on his domestic agenda.
In the past month, the United States has stepped up its pressure on Cuba, not only including the Cuban International Finance Bank on the sanctions list, but also returning Cuba to the list of "countries supporting terrorism", leading to a further setback in US-Cuban relations.
The relationship between the United States and Cuba is a pair of special and complicated bilateral relations in today's international relations. It is a relationship in which two countries with different ideologies sometimes fight against each other and sometimes engage in dialogue. It is also a typical case of fighting the strong against the weak.
The United States severely suppressed
During his tenure, former US President Barack Obama single-handedly promoted the resumption of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba, and made diplomacy with Cuba his political legacy.
After taking office as the US president in 2017, Trump returned to a tough track against Cuba and adopted multiple measures to suppress it, increasing the pressure on Cuba to survive.
First, continue to expand sanctions against Cuba.
On June 16, 2017, after Trump fully explained his policy on Cuba in Florida, he launched a harsh New Deal against Cuba, which can be described as ubiquitous.
One is to prohibit economic and trade exchanges between the United States and Cuba.
In November 2017, the U.S. government announced that it would prohibit U.S. citizens from engaging in business dealings with 180 Cuban companies related to the Cuban government and military.
The second is to implement long-arm jurisdiction to intimidate foreign companies that cooperate with Cuba.
In May 2019, the United States reactivated Article 3 of the Helms-Burton Act.
According to this clause, after the Cuban Revolution in 1959, American citizens whose companies and personal property were "confiscated" by the Cuban government can file lawsuits against Cuban entities using these properties and foreign companies with which they have economic and trade relations in the U.S. courts.
The third is to cut off the source of overseas remittances.
Remittances have always been an important source of foreign exchange income for Cuba.
In order to cut off the source of Cuba’s economy, the United States announced in June 2020 that Finsimex, a Cuban financial institution that accepts Western Union’s business in Cuba, has military background and included it on the sanctions list.
The fourth is to strengthen financial sanctions.
When Trump stepped down, he once again wielded sanctions "heavy punch". In early January 2021, it was announced that the Cuban International Finance Bank would be included in the sanctions list, prohibiting US companies from conducting financial transactions with him.
Second, freeze foreign exchanges and cut off non-governmental exchanges.
On July 20, 2015, the United States and Cuba resumed diplomatic relations and re-established embassies in each other.
Obama also approved U.S. citizens who meet the 12 criteria to travel to Cuba.
After Trump took office, he used the so-called "sonic attack" to create diplomatic friction and restrict the travel of his own people to Cuba.
In June 2019, Trump announced that U.S. personnel are prohibited from traveling to Cuba under the category of "group humanities education", and U.S. citizens are no longer allowed to travel to Cuba on passenger ships, tourist boats, private jets, or corporate jets.
In addition, the United States has also substantially cancelled commercial flights between the two countries.
Finally, it hinders Cuban cooperation in the fight against the epidemic.
After the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, Cuba took the initiative to send medical teams to many countries for support, which was widely praised.
However, his good deeds were vilified by the United States, and the US State Department even publicly warned countries not to accept assistance from Cuban medical teams in order to completely block Cuba’s international medical cooperation.
During the epidemic, the United States also blocked Cuba’s purchase of medical supplies from third countries.
Cuba actively responds
Trump's series of sanctions have brought many negative effects on Cuba.
First, the tourism industry has suffered a greater impact.
Tourism is an important source of foreign exchange for Cuba.
After the start of the bilateral normalization process during the Obama era, the number of Americans traveling to Cuba has increased.
But after Trump announced restrictions on American travel to Cuba, the tourism industry continued to decline.
Second, economic reforms face the constraints of the US blockade.
The blockade of more than half a century has disconnected Cuba from the outside world, and the financial system urgently needs to be upgraded.
However, Trump's strengthening of sanctions has made Cuba's integration into the international financial system and deepening economic reforms face greater resistance.
Finally, it affects the willingness of foreign investment.
Trump's sanctions on Cuba have affected the outside world's expectations of Cuba's economy, causing the European Union and other countries to hold a wait-and-see attitude towards Cuban investment.
Cuban Foreign Minister Rodríguez stated that from April 2019 to March 2020, the US sanctions caused Cuba to lose US$5.57 billion, bringing Cuba’s total losses since the implementation of the trade embargo to US$144 billion.
Especially since 2020, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has spread globally, but the United States has stepped up sanctions against Cuba, which has further worsened the Cuban economy.
Cuban officials expect the country's economy to decline by 11% in 2020.
In the face of the hard-line actions of the US, the Cuban government has adopted a rational and methodical response and actively seeks room for survival.
After Trump announced his new policy on Cuba in June 2017, the Cuban government issued a statement saying that Trump’s new policy on Cuba was a “serious retrogression” in the relationship between Cuba and the United States.
But at the same time, the Cuban government expressed its "willingness to continue a mutually respectful dialogue with the United States."
As the US sanctions continue to escalate, the Cuban government has launched a public opinion war in the international community on the one hand, using its influence in third world countries to gain solidarity, especially after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, actively carrying out international medical cooperation and sending medical care to many countries Team, further expand international influence; on the other hand, steadily promote the process of updating the economic and social model to relieve domestic economic difficulties.
Relationship is expected to improve
Looking to the future, where will the Biden administration's policy toward Palestine go?
As the Vice President of the United States during the Obama era, Biden’s philosophy on Cuba is similar to that of Obama, and he is familiar with Latin American affairs and has visited Latin America many times.
Alejandro Majorcas, the Secretary of Homeland Security nominated by Biden, and Roberta Jacobson, the former Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, participated in negotiations with Cuba during Obama's second term.
For the United States, easing its relations with Cuba will help to improve its international image and conform to the interests of some agricultural organizations in the United States.
Therefore, it is more likely that Biden will improve relations with Cuba after he takes office.
However, due to the continuing spread of the domestic epidemic in the United States, serious social tears, and intensified ethnic conflicts, Biden may give priority to domestic affairs after he takes office. The degree and pace of the relaxation of relations with Cuba may be determined according to his ruling status and domestic agenda. set.
(The author is an associate researcher at the Latin American Institute of China Institute of Modern International Relations)
Cao Ting
Cao Ting