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21 January 2021 In the week from 13 to 19 January 2021, compared to the previous one, new cases of Covid positivity fell (97,335 against 121,644, equal to -20%) in the face of a significant and anomalous decrease in the positive ratio / cases tested (19.8% versus 29.5%). These are the data from the independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation.



Currently positive cases decreased slightly (535,524, while previously they were 570,040, -6.1%) and, on the hospital front, the number of hospitalized patients with symptoms decreased (22,699 compared to 23,712, -4.3%) and intensive care (2,487 instead of 2,636, -5.7%). Deaths also fell slightly (down to 3,338 from the previous 3,490, -4.4%).



The president of the Gimbe Foundation Nino Cartabellotta explains: "After two weeks of slow ascent of all the curves that reflected the pre-Christmas loosening, a reduction in new cases is observed thanks to the effects of the Christmas Decree, which in the first days has in fact" colored in red "the whole country".



With respect to the testing activity - explains Gimbe - the variations of tampons and persons tested are not reported because from January 15 the bulletin of the Ministry of Health also includes rapid antigenic tampons.

In this sense, the collapse of the positive / test person ratio is difficult to interpret and not comparable with the previous week, where the calculation was made only on molecular swabs.



Thanks to the Christmas lockout, the percentage increase in cases in almost all regions is reduced.

There is also a slight decline in hospitalizations, even if employment by Covid patients continues to exceed the 40% threshold in the medical area in 7 regions and the 30% threshold of intensive care in 11 regions.



Vaccine supply chaos, second dose at risk


As of January 20 (updated at 9.48 pm) 1,558,635 doses were delivered to the Regions, of which 1,250,903 already administered (80.3%), with inevitable slowdown in the last few days.

However, only 9,160 people completed the vaccination course, while 13,534 people should have already received the second dose.



"Taking into account the possible delivery delays, even last minute announcements as in the case of Pfizer - explains, in a note the president of the Gimbe Foundation Nino Cartabellotta - it is essential that at this stage the Regions set aside the vaccines for the administration of the second dose. The vaccination campaign is not a speed race: the unit of measurement on which to compare, both with other countries and between regions, is not in fact the number of doses administered, but the percentage of the population that has completed the cycle vaccination, guarantee of 94-95% efficacy in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 ".



The European Commission published a document on January 19 highlighting the actions needed to step up the fight against the pandemic.



"The objectives outlined on vaccination coverage - comments Renata Gili, Head of GIMBE Research on Health Services - provide for the vaccination of 80% of health and social health workers and people over 80 by the end of March and 70% of adults by the end of the summer, requiring an acceleration which, with the current criticalities, seems difficult to achieve, although it remains a priority objective once the problems of supplying vaccines have been resolved ".



"In view of the delays in the delivery of vaccines and the unknowns related to the variants of the virus - says Cartabellotta - if on the one hand it is urgent to calibrate the administration plan on that of actual deliveries to ensure the second dose in the correct time, on the other it is essential to rapidly enhance the low viral sequencing activity (0.034%), given that the European Commission recommends a target of 5-10% of positive molecular swabs. Last but not least, it must be definitively taken into account that only the red areas, such as those imposed by the Christmas Decree are the real weapon to bend the contagion curve, destined to rise in the coming weeks due to the fewer restrictions in the orange and yellow regions, the reopening of schools and the potential impact of the new variants ". The National Vaccination Plan expects delivery of 154.1 million doses in 2021: 28.3 in the first quarter, 57.2 in the second, 53.8 in the third and 14.8 in the fourth.

However, the data are not updated in relation to the new contracts signed by the European Commission, the progress status of clinical studies and that of approval by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).



According to the in-depth analysis carried out by the GIMBE Foundation on the data of the European Commission and EMA: of the approved vaccines (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna) Italy has 102.3 million doses on paper: 37.7 million doses with delivery times already defined by the vaccination plan and 64.6 million doses with unknown delivery times.



These doses include those envisaged by the additional contract stipulated by the European Commission with Pfizer-BioNtech on 8 January (40.3 million) and the additional optional ones envisaged by the contracts with Pfizer-BioNTech (13.5 million) and Moderna (10.8 million). AstraZeneca has committed to provide 53.8 million doses, with delivery times known for only 40.4 million doses (16.2 in the first quarter of 2021 and 24.2 in the second), subject to conditional release authorization on the market (AIC) of the EMA, whose opinion is expected for January 29 The remaining 202.6 million doses concern vaccines for which the companies have not submitted the MA application to the EMA: in particular, for the Johnson & Johnson's vaccine the rolling review procedure was initiated, Cure-Vac began the phase 3 study in mid-December (but inexplicably the vaccination plan foresees deliveries as early as the first quarter), while Sanofi-GSK has postponed deliveries to 2022.