There is a question whether the personality of the candidate for the post of prime minister will remain within the closed limits of the parties in force in the upcoming elections, or will the restrictions be broken and brought about, such as the current prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi?

Although he came with the consent of those parties and according to political agreements.

This coincides with Muqtada al-Sadr raising the ceiling of his ambition to deliver one of the Sadrists to the position of prime minister, at a time when talking about his intention to deliver his cousin, the current Iraqi ambassador to Britain, Jaafar al-Sadr, or his nephew, Ahmad al-Sadr, to the premiership, especially since the Sadrist movement has achieved A majority in the 2018 elections.

Recently, political movements and dialogues have been active between the effective parties and blocs in preparation for the upcoming elections, which are scheduled to take place on the tenth of next October.

The most prominent question that currently preoccupies the Iraqi street is: Will the next prime minister leave the circle of influential parties that took over this position after 2003, or not?

What is the likelihood that the candidate for prime minister is from the second or third generation of these parties?

Or will it remain within the domain of the traditional generation without change?

What is the position of the protest squares?

Al-Khidr considered that the political process in Iraq is consensual, and only those who are acceptable to the various forces will reach the premiership (Al-Jazeera Net)


The second or third generation


The political process in post-2003 Iraq was built on the principle of consensus, and the nomination process for the prime minister’s personality was never linked to the winning bloc in the elections, but rather linked to internal and external political consensus, as happened with former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki when he came to replace Ibrahim Al-Jaafari in 2006, and the matter was renewed with al-Maliki himself and he was elected prime minister for the second time in 2010 despite the victory of Iyad Allawi’s list at the time, and the same is the case with Haider al-Abadi, who came despite Maliki’s bloc’s victory in the 2014 elections, and Adel Abdul Mahdi was also not in the election game, just as al-Kazimi was.

According to political analyst Ahmed Al-Khader, and with the entry of the "October Revolution" on the line, it is possible that the next prime minister will be from the second or third generation of the parties themselves, with the requirement that the authority of Najaf, the Kurdish side, and foreign countries accept this. But what attracts attention is that the characters are from the back lines For parties do not exceed the fingers of one hand.

Al-Khader expects that the Sadrist movement will preserve its political space in Parliament and the government, with the possibility of raising the ceiling of its ambition to demand the prime minister, adding that the political process in Iraq is consensual and not numerical.

He added that the Sadrist movement’s efforts to win the post of prime minister are due to its desire to be a political representative of the Shiites, in the perception that other Shiite blocs and parties have failed to manage the state after 2003.

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, the political analyst is likely to leave the prime minister's post from the first line of these parties with a gradual change, which is expected to be from outside the hawks, meaning that it will be close to the street and the suffering of the Iraqis.

Al-Khader holds that the influential parties failed to manage the Iraqi state during the past two decades, not only in the prime minister's office, but also in managing security, economic, foreign relations, education, reconstruction, services and other files.

Fahmy believes that the current situation in Iraq suggests that the Sadrist movement's fortunes are greater than the rest of the blocs (the Iraqi press)


Colors of the political painting


However, the importance of the next prime minister is not limited to outside the circle of traditional figures only, but must go beyond to bring about a comprehensive change in the approach in place, which led the country to the stalemate in which it is now, and the message of the recent protests was clear, as Iraqi politician Raed Fahmy believes that the political system that has held power until now bears responsibility for all of Iraq’s woes.

He added that the pressures generated by the "October Uprising" prompted the influential political forces to think about circumventing the demands of the demonstrators by bringing in new figures guaranteed loyalty to them, or entering the upcoming elections in formations separate from them in public, and in secret they owe their allegiance, explaining this step by rearranging the inside Ranks of these parties.

The colors of the current Iraqi political picture suggest that the Sadrist movement’s chances are greater than the rest of the blocs to achieve a relative majority within the framework of the Shiite forces from which the new prime minister is supposed to emerge, according to my understanding, adding that “power is not in the hands of the government, rather there are authorities outside the government that influence the situation and impose Restrictions on the state, and if he, like Al-Kazemi, has limited capabilities to effect a change in the balance of power without his ability to impose his will, then no change will happen.

The protest squares refuse to let the next candidate for prime minister carry any characteristic of traditional parties (Anatolia)


The protest squares


, in turn, refuse to let the next candidate for prime minister carry any characteristic of the traditional influential parties, which are considered to have caused the destruction of the country and wasted 17-year budgets, in addition to their loyalties to non-Iraq. Activist Hamza Majed adds that the influential parties will resort to all means. To circumvent the protests and reject their demands for a change in state administration.

What increases the protesters ’rejection of any candidate from the influential blocs for prime minister is that loyalty will not be given to Iraq, and he will work to implement the agendas of the countries that support him, as is the case with previous presidents, according to Majid, adding that these parties will adhere to the position of prime minister and will not relinquish it. And if it costs her, turning Iraq into a battlefield of blood.

Fakhir showed that his bloc believes in an independent, professional technocratic figure to take over the post of prime minister (Al-Jazeera - Net)

Al-Sadr


and what increases the Sadr movement’s chances of becoming prime minister in the next government is that its leader changes the prime minister whenever he wants when he fails to fulfill his duties, while the deputy of the pro-Sadr “Sairoun” coalition, Jamal Fakher, says that his bloc believes in a professional technocratic personality for this sovereign position, far from Eastern or Western tendencies, at a time when former prime ministers have not succeeded in saving the Iraqi people from the crises that have repeatedly followed them, he said.

The Sadrist MP stresses - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that the next prime minister should have a professional Iraqi technocratic background, away from loyalties to abroad or any other party.

To restore strength to the Iraqi state at the regional level, with the exchange of common interests among regional states.