Tripoli (AFP)

The production of OPEC members was once again boosted in December by Libyan oil which, after having suffered badly from local chaos, is recovering thanks to a ceasefire signed in October .

Almost ten years after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya remains torn between rival powers, against a background of foreign interference: the Government of National Unity (GNA) recognized by the UN and based in Tripoli, and the camp of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, in the east.

While this country has the most abundant reserves in Africa, this rebound remains fragile and black gold is at the heart of economic and political issues.

What is the state of production?

Thanks to Libya, the production of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reached 25.36 million barrels / day in December (+278,000 b / d over one month).

In Libya, it rose 136,000 barrels per day, reaching 1.224 million bpd in December after more than doubling in November.

Before the ceasefire, production was only 121,000 bpd in the third quarter of 2020, ten times less than today.

But it remains below the level of "before the fall of the regime of Muammar Gaddafi, when Libya produced (...) 1.5 to 1.6 million barrels per day," Francis Perrin told AFP , research director at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations.

At the time, the Libyan economy was based almost 90% on this industry.

Despite the current rebound, "the oil industry remains in difficulty," warns Al-Mahdi Omar, a Libyan petroleum engineer.

"It is a miracle that the oil sector continues to function despite dilapidated infrastructure damaged by war, neglect or sabotage."

Are there still fields out of service?

No.

The Tripoli-based National Oil Company (NOC), the only one authorized to market Libyan crude, announced in October the lifting of the state of force majeure - allowing an exemption from its liability in the event of breach of contracts. - on the last blocked field.

This decision was made possible by the lifting of the blockades decided in September by the forces of Marshal Haftar.

A year ago, the pro-Haftar blocked production and exports from the most important fields and terminals in an attempt to demand a more equitable distribution of revenues, managed by Tripoli.

But the failure in mid-2020 of his offensive on the capital convinced Khalifa Haftar to give up this means of pressure.

The blockage of some eight months, however, resulted in nearly $ 10 billion in losses, according to the NOC.

Is there still room for improvement?

The NOC announced in mid-January the closure of an oil pipeline for maintenance work.

Above all, if there are "margins of progress", they are "not immediate", affirms Mr. Perrin.

"In the medium term, Libya could go higher. In the short term, if it manages to maintain the current level, it will be very good", continues the expert, estimating that "the main uncertainty is political".

The lifting of the blockades is "within the framework of a provisional agreement, of a truce, it is not a peace agreement", he notes.

For the Libyan economist Nouri el-Hammi, "only a fair distribution of revenues and the creation of real development opportunities will be able to solve the problems of the sector", he says.

What weight in the negotiations?

This question of distribution is a source of frequent tension as talks take place under the auspices of the UN.

It is "a key element of the discussions", confirms Francis Perrin: "Which could possibly make it possible to either consolidate the emerging truce or to derail it".

In the meantime, "it is a sword of Damocles" for a sector at the mercy of new blockages "if the discussions on sharing (...) do not lead to a compromise", says the research director at the Iris.

Since its discovery in the country at the end of the 1950s, "everything that concerns Libya has undoubtedly something to do with oil", adds Al-Mahdi Omar.

According to this petroleum engineer, the dialogue relaunched by the UN "cannot circumvent" the issue of the country's main resource.

Despite its turmoil, the sector still accounted for 60% of Libyan Gross Domestic Product in 2018.

"It is at the heart of the negotiations between the Libyan adversaries ... but also between their foreign supporters", adds Mr. Omar.

bur-hme-rb-jmi / gk / elm

© 2021 AFP