Joe Biden, who officially succeeds Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday, has already announced the outlines of a vast plan to support American economic activity ... Which is doing rather well despite the coronavirus crisis, in particular thanks to structural advantages.

ANALYSIS

In what state will Joe Biden find the United States, officially succeeding Donald Trump, Wednesday?

On the economic front, in any case, the prospects for the new US president are rather encouraging.

Upon entering the White House, he will inherit a healthy national economy despite the coronavirus crisis, against a backdrop of global recovery - growth is expected to be 4% in 2021. 

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A healthy economy, but growing inequalities

Because before Covid-19, the United States was doing well, with unemployment at its lowest for decades and an economy stimulated by massive tax cuts.

Corporate tax, in particular, had been reduced from 35 to 21% by Donald Trump.

At the same time, the president had initiated a gigantic infrastructure spending plan, voted in mid-2019, a year before the health crisis, and which provided for 2,000 billion dollars in investments in roads, bridges and various infrastructures.

Many observers of American political life therefore believe that without his catastrophic management of the health crisis, Donald Trump would have been re-elected thanks to the good health of the American economy.

But there's a dark side to that resilience: The Census Bureau released a chilling study in December, showing that one in eight American adults had suffered from hunger at least once in the previous week.

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The recovery plan that Joe Biden will therefore present to Congress to support the US economy, up to $ 1.9 trillion - or 10% of national GDP, provides for increased aid in the form of checks to these households in difficulty.

And this plan will take place against a backdrop of a much faster rebound than in Europe.

The American central bank forecasts an unemployment rate of only 5% this year, and 4.2% next year, ie near full employment.

GAFA, an instrument of considerable power

If it is doing better, it is also because the American economy has many strengths.

The United States is self-sufficient in fossil fuels - it even exports oil and gas.

The Tech sector, with the GAFAs and the entire ecosystem that surrounds them, is stronger than ever.

And the Biden administration, like Barack Obama's, sees it as an instrument of power - Trump was more critical of the digital giants. 

Finally, since the 2008 crisis, the power of American finance has grown considerably and the big Wall Street banks dominate global finance.

This is another asset that is often poorly measured in Europe, but which gives the United States a significant comparative advantage.

Despite Chinese competition, the world's largest economy therefore still has powerful assets to keep its rank.

What to expect from the European side? 

In Europe and especially in France, we hope for simpler relations on the commercial level, after years poisoned by taxes of all kinds - those on wine have been further strengthened in recent days. 

Where the United States even threatened to tax the famous luxury brands of France in response to the French tax on the American digital giants, the first statements of the future Secretary of the Treasury - in other words, the Minister of Economy - American seem reassuring: she said she was in favor of a GAFA tax at the global level.