Concession and goodwill are required in the next stage
Challenges for Joe Biden to engage with China and North Korea
Reducing tension between America and China is a real challenge for the next administration.
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The "fifth generation" is an arena of conflict between America and China.
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The President-elect, Joe Biden, will not face any greater challenge from China and the Indo-Pacific region, and the decision facing the Biden administration is whether to adopt Donald Trump's policies towards China and North Korea, or to attempt a "reset" aimed at returning to traditional participation and negotiations, Regarding China, such a step backwards threatens to embolden Beijing, while few good options on North Korea make the resumption of talks a low-risk, but likely fruitless, path. The main foreign policy achievement of the Trump administration has been the heart of four decades of Bipartisan commitment to the People's Republic of China, and the adoption of a more stringent reciprocity policy.
Despite the uneven implementation, as is the case with all policies, Trump's approach has largely reoriented US policy towards Beijing, especially after the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic in Wuhan, China, and Beijing's attempts to cover up the epidemic, and blame Washington.
The administration reclassified the country as a strategic competitor, aiming to dislodge America from its hegemonic position in the world, and Washington issued a set of policies and strategies designed to curtail Beijing's growing global influence and aggressive behavior.
Before the epidemic, although it has been largely forgotten now, there was a trade war that lasted more than two years, with the aim of correcting structural imbalances in bilateral economic relations, and after rejecting the Chinese threat, at the beginning, Biden added that taking a tougher stance towards Beijing was necessary. Already.
Stick to the hard line
Will Biden stick to this line?
Where is the settlement possible?
And where should it be tougher?
In all respects it would be easier to make concessions, try to show "good faith", "reduce tension", and return to "normalcy." Nevertheless, doing so may risk convincing China that it has withstood the worst that Washington can do, And the doubling of aggressive behavior, which in 2016 led both presidential candidates to consider changing the US policy towards China in the first place.
In terms of security, Biden needs to show, not just claim, that America will maintain its military commitments in Asia, and the president-elect should not underestimate the importance of US maritime navigation in the South China Sea, which has changed dramatically since 2017. The country is closely linked to security issues abroad, and the Biden administration should maintain Trump's focus on combating Chinese espionage operations, as well as targeting Beijing's use of People's Liberation Army officers, the "thousands of talent" program to access leading American research, not to mention the ongoing cyber attacks on companies. American.
Limited options with Korea
As for North Korea, the president-elect will face the same limited set of options that have confused Trump, and while the latter chose a high-stakes strategy, rewarding Kim Jong Un, but without much effect, Biden is likely to revert to the traditional US stance for negotiations.
Given Pyongyang's undeniable capabilities, he will have to decide whether or not to accept North Korea as a country with a nuclear capability, thus shifting the security discussion to containment and arms control, or continue to imagine that nuclear disarmament is possible without regime change. And whichever path he chooses, political uncertainty about Kim's health and control of the state, along with Pyongyang's tendency to test new US administrations, mean that Biden will likely face a North Korean provocation, if not outright crisis, early in his term. Strengthening consultation and close work with South Korea and Japan will be vital, and the next president must understand the need to direct Tokyo and Seoul to close working relations, while preparing a set of responses to any North Korean aggression.
Any impression of hesitation toward North Korea, as it is with China, would invite more destabilizing behavior in the region, which is the most strategically vital in the world.
4 crucial years
Economic relations will be decisive over the next four years, as China will pressure Washington to end Trump's tariffs and ease restrictions imposed on Chinese technology companies, and the next president must go ahead with negotiations on structural trade imbalances, and not hesitate to impose sanctions for not adhering to the Phase One agreement. And, most importantly, he must preserve the restrictions imposed on Huawei and ZTE, and support the alternative "fifth generation" alliance to America and its closest allies, especially Britain and Japan.
It would undoubtedly be appropriate to prefer Biden's policy to explore re-joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, led by Japan, and this should be pursued alongside the expansion of the Trans-Pacific Comprehensive Partnership, now, to include new countries, including South Korea, India, and even Britain and France.
In short, Biden must remain steadfast against Chinese pressure tactics, and keep pushing for reciprocity on the economy and security. Otherwise, he will face a significant increase in aggressive behavior that will increase stakes in Asia and beyond.
Biden needs to show that America will maintain its military commitment in Asia.
Biden must maintain his stance against Chinese pressure tactics, and keep pushing for reciprocity on the economy and security. Otherwise, he will face an increase in hostility that will increase stakes in Asia and beyond.
Michael Oslin is an expert on contemporary Asia at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University; He is the author of "The New Political Geography of Asia".
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