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Munich (dpa / lby) - The Munich infectiologist Clemens Wendtner considers the strict lockdown to be necessary despite the slightly falling number of cases.
"We are not yet where we want it to be," said the head physician for infectious diseases at the Schwabing Clinic in Munich.
“It is encouraging that the number of cases - including inpatients - is slightly down.
I assume that it is a first effect of the lockdown.
But we come from a very high level. "
Even with a very optimistic estimate, the seven-day incidence can be halved within a maximum of seven to ten days.
The number of new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within seven days must be below 50, with the target being 25. "My assessment is that we will need four to six weeks for this and that we will be able to draw a conclusion in the middle or end of February."
In some counties the incidence is over 500. If the goal of 25 is not achievable, one has to reconsider.
"One lesson from the past few months is that you must not lift a lockdown too early," said Wendtner.
"You have to stick with it, otherwise all the effort will be in vain."
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The health authorities could only track chains of infection below an incidence of 50, which is the prerequisite for implementing the quarantine regulations.
The situation in the clinics would also ease.
It remains to be seen whether the slow decline in the numbers is due to more negligence on the part of people or to an advanced spread of the more contagious British or South African virus variants.
"There is still far too little knowledge available."
As of the end of last week, 16 cases of the more contagious mutants had been detected in Germany - out of a total of 2,000 cases that were sequenced.
"So far, too little has been sequenced to get an overview."
Politicians have already made funds available for tighter controls.
Munich Clinic on Covid-19